Gold rate outlook: Gold prices likely to stay under pressure as investors eye key US macro data, say analysts
Gold rate outlook:
are expected to remain subdued next week as investors await crucial US macroeconomic data, which may offer fresh signals on the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates, analysts said.
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Improving risk appetite and easing geopolitical tensions have reduced investor interest in traditional safe-haven assets like gold, pushing them towards riskier assets such as equities.
The US Federal Reserve's cautious tone on rate cuts has also weighed on gold sentiment. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, in his testimony last week, said rate cuts were possible but not imminent, prompting a global recalibration of gold holdings, according to PTI.
On Friday, gold futures on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) fell sharply by Rs 1,563 or 1.61% to close at Rs 95,524 per 10 grams.
Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst - Commodity and Currency at LKP Securities, said fading geopolitical concerns, especially in the Middle East, are diverting investors towards equities. He expects gold to trade in the Rs 93,000–97,500 range on the MCX and between USD 3,175–3,325 in international markets in the coming week.
'The movement will largely depend on key US macroeconomic indicators such as unemployment data, non-farm payrolls, and the ADP employment report,' Trivedi said, adding that any geopolitical surprise could shift market sentiment, PTI quoted.
NS Ramaswamy, Head of Commodities & CRM at Ventura, said gold has failed to breach the USD 3,300 level overseas. 'The safe-haven appeal has diminished and the only support currently is a weaker dollar,' he noted.
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Ramaswamy added that the dollar index has not received strong support despite the US-China deal. However, gold could see a positive boost if reciprocal tariffs are postponed beyond the July 9 deadline.
'While there is no clear consensus on a rate cut in July, expectations remain skewed towards easing, which lends some support to gold,' he said. 'Falling oil prices have also eased inflation concerns and lifted risk sentiment, further eroding gold's appeal as a hedge.'
With limited upside triggers and most factors turning bearish, gold prices are likely to remain under pressure unless the dollar weakens significantly or the Fed signals a major policy shift, he added
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