Churn before storm? What the rumblings in BJP, AAP, Congress in Gujarat mean

India Today

2 days ago

The Congress last month took a leaf out of its old handbook and anointed Amit Chavda, five-time MLA and a third generation leader from one of the most influential political families in the Gujarat, as its state president.Another dynast, tribal leader Dr Tushar Chaudhary, replaced Chavda as chief of the legislative party. Tushar is the son of former Gujarat chief minister Amarsinh Chaudhary.advertisementThe appointments, announced on July 17, followed the resignation of Shaktisinh Gohil as the party's state president, his exit prompted by the Congress's dismal performance in the recent assembly bypoll.The leadership change has come with hopes of reviving a party battered by decades of electoral setbacks in a BJP-dominated state. The ruling party, on the other hand, has been awaiting the announcement of a new president for almost two years, as incumbent C.R. Paatil concluded his first three-year term in 2023.
Expecting to be rewarded for the BJP's stellar assembly election victory in 2022—156 out of the 182 seats—Paatil had wanted to move to the Centre ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. He became the Union minister of Jal Shakti in the new Narendra Modi government while continuing to hold charge as the BJP's Gujarat president.Suspense over who will succeed Paatil continues to fire speculation in BJP gatherings even as insiders opine the state unit should be more focused on dealing with the anti-incumbency piling up from over three decades of rule in Gujarat.The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), meanwhile, sprang a surprise by winning the Visavadar seat in the bypoll in June. The victory was considered a milestone for AAP not only because it appeared weakened by its Delhi assembly poll rout and two of its five MLAs in Gujarat deserted the party, but also because Visavadar was once held by BJP veteran Keshubhai Patel and is a Patidar-dominated seat.The victorious AAP candidate Gopal Italia has his roots in the Patidar Anamat Andolan Samiti, which ran a campaign for reservation for Patidar youth in government jobs. The election was a moment of inflection for all the parties about how the sentiment of the Patidar movement resonates with the electorate a decade after it was launched and ebbed within five years politically, with Hardik Patel's departure from the Congress to settle down as a BJP MLA in 2022.In the last month since the bypoll, AAP in Gujarat has been livened up by two visits by its national convener Arvind Kejriwal and Punjab chief minister Bhagwant Mann to rouse the cadre and kick-start the 'Gujarat Jodo' membership drive. Elections to 16 municipal corporations in Gujarat are scheduled in early 2026. The civic body polls will be a test of the public mood in the run-up to the assembly polls in late-2027.advertisementMuch of the rumblings witnessed currently are in preparation for the municipal polls, which are seen as an opportunity for the Opposition parties to make inroads into the BJP's core electorate—the urban middle and upper-middle class. Economic challenges, jobs and crumbling infrastructure have contributed to disillusionment with the government and the ruling party.In the assembly polls in 2022, the Congress won 17 seats. In civic body polls this February, the party won only one municipality against the 15 in 2018. The BJP won 62 of the 68 municipalities, its tally up from 47.In July, the Congress appointed 40 new District Congress Committee presidents to infuse fresh energy into the local leadership. In the wake of the recent Vadodara bridge collapse and allegations of corruption in schemes such as MGNREGA and Nal Se Jal, the Congress and AAP are leading a fresh charge against the government.advertisementHowever, the BJP is still seen as holding a firm grip on power since it controls nearly all cooperative bodies and taluka panchayats, municipalities and municipal corporations. To rattle the BJP remains a daunting task for the Congress, which lies in the cinders of its past losses, as well as AAP, which has so far been unsuccessful in presenting itself as a credible political alternative in the state.Subscribe to India Today Magazine- EndsMust Watch