Draft Texas congressional map pits Democratic incumbents against each other, spelling possible primary clashes

Yahoo

5 days ago

In their newly proposed congressional map, Texas Republicans are looking to forge red districts in Central Texas, Dallas and Houston that would push a handful of Democratic incumbents into nearby districts already occupied by another Democrat.
The new configuration would leave Democratic members in those regions with the uncomfortable prospect of battling each other for the dwindling seats in next year's primaries; retiring; or taking their chances in nearby GOP-leaning districts where they would face uphill battles for political survival.
For now, Texas Democrats are focused on fighting to stop the map by testifying at hearings across the state, firing up donors for a potential quorum break and taking every opportunity to blast the proposal as racist and illegal. The map, introduced by state Rep. Todd Hunter, R-Corpus Christi, is still subject to changes from the Republican majority, in addition to Democratic attempts to fight it. And if enacted, it would surely face legal challenges which could further change the makeup of districts.
But if the new lines go through for 2026, they could pit long-serving older members of the Texas delegation against younger newcomers, drudging up existing tensions in the Democratic Party over age and seniority.
In Austin, where Republicans have condensed two Democratic-held seats into one district, progressive Reps. Lloyd Doggett and Greg Casar — ideologically similar but 42 years apart in age — have both been drawn into the same seat.
In North Texas, the three Democratic incumbents in the Dallas-Fort Worth metro area would need to decide how to condense themselves into the two remaining blue-leaning districts. While the core of Rep. Jasmine Crockett's downtown Dallas district was kept largely intact in the new map, Republicans want to dismantle the suburban Dallas district of Rep. Julie Johnson, D-Farmer's Branch, pushing many of her voters into the exurban districts of her Republican neighbors. Those changes would leave Johnson with a suddenly bright red district.
Rep. Marc Veasey's nearby 33rd District, meanwhile, would remain blue but undergo a major transformation, dropping much of Fort Worth — the political base Veasey has represented since he was a state legislator in the mid-2000s — and adding parts of Johnson's current district.
And in Houston, the Democrat who emerges from the 18th Congressional District's November special election could see their time in office abruptly cut short. The 18th District has a storied history, as the first southern district to send a Black woman — the legendary Rep. Barbara Jordan — to Congress. Several prominent Black Democrats have since held the seat, including longtime Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee, who died last year. The district has been vacant since March after Jackson Lee's successor, former Houston mayor Sylvester Turner, also died in office.
But with Republicans packing Democrats into three blue Houston-area seats rather than their current four, the winner in the 18th District's special election — which will decide who finishes out Turner's term — could end up in a primary a few months later against one of the more experienced incumbent Democrats or face pressure to bow out.
No Texas Democrats have announced how they would handle the musical chairs scenario the new map would trigger. But with a Dec. 11 deadline to file for next year's midterms — and pressure from donors and party leaders likely to force their hands well before then — they will have to ponder their futures quickly.
The new map could compel members to retire, change districts or run for a different office rather than face a bruising primary against a colleague.
Nearly a dozen Democrats in the Texas delegation confronted a similar range of options in 2003, when Republicans last pursued mid-decade redistricting in the state.
In the 2004 elections, none of the 10 targeted Democrats opted to run against each other in primaries. Four sought reelection in redrawn seats and lost in the general election. Another, former Rep. Chris Bell, lost the primary for his renumbered and reconfigured district to challenger Al Green, who is now being targeted himself more than 20 years later.
Additionally, two Democrats switched districts and won, including Doggett; one changed parties and won; one retired; and one held onto their same seat.
Austin
After surviving the 2004 purge and subsequent rounds of redistricting, Doggett is once again in the GOP's crosshairs.
Under the current map, Doggett holds most of the city of Austin in his 37th Congressional District, while Casar, a former Austin city council member, represents the 35th District, which stretches from southern and eastern parts of Austin down Interstate 35 to San Antonio. Casar, who is Latino, carries the heavily Black and Latino portions of both metro areas, while Doggett, who is white, represents a majority-white district.
Both men are progressives with historical ties to Austin, setting up a potentially awkward primary or talk of retirement. Doggett, 78, is an Austin institution, having represented Texas' capital city in various district configurations for 30 years in the U.S. House and in the state Senate during the 1970s and 1980s.
But Casar, thanks in part to his time on the Austin City Council, has far more ties to the proposed new 37th District than to his redrawn seat. Texas Republicans want to shift the 35th Congressional District to cover much of east San Antonio and Bexar County, while extending it into the solidly Republican outlying counties of Guadalupe, Karnes and Wilson. Less than 10% of Casar's current constituents would reside in the new 35th District, according to a Democratic analysis obtained by The Texas Tribune. Had the district existed last year, President Donald Trump would have carried it by 15 percentage points.
A 36-year-old rising star who chairs the Congressional Progressive Caucus and counts Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez as allies, Casar is in his second term in Congress. His old city council district — which he represented for over six years — is in the newly drawn 37th District.
Still, Doggett would enter any head-to-head matchup with a significant financial edge. He is sitting on $6.2 million in his campaign account from years of fundraising without a competitive race. Casar, by comparison, has about $450,000 on hand. Also working in Doggett's favor is that about two-thirds of his current 37th District constituents would remain within the new district lines under the proposed map.
Doggett made national headlines last year for being the first Democrat in Congress to call for then-President Joe Biden to drop out of the presidential race.
Dallas
If the new map goes through, Johnson and Veasey would have decisions to make about the new 33rd Congressional District.
Contained entirely in Dallas County, the newly proposed district is an amalgamation of the three current North Texas districts represented by Democrats. It covers nearly one-third of the same geographic area as Veasey's 33rd District and about a third of the constituency.
The GOP map-drawers also proposed moving some blue areas of Johnson's 32nd Congressional District into the 33rd, allowing them to tilt Johnson's seat to heavily favor Republicans. Under the new lines, Trump would have carried the district by 18 points in 2024, a swing of more than 40 points from Vice President Kamala Harris' 24-point winning margin in the current district.
Less than half of the current 32nd District would stay intact under the new lines; the rest of the seat would comprise red areas in northeast Dallas County and parts of Rockwall, Hunt, Rains, Wood, Camp and Upshur Counties that are currently represented by Republicans.
Neither Veasey nor Johnson's homes are in the new 33rd district, as drawn. Both have a reasonable claim to the district.
Veasey, who has been in Congress since 2015 and a fixture in North Texas politics for two decades, is a Fort Worth native who has always represented that city. The new 33rd district would not include his political base in Tarrant County.
But Veasey has long represented parts of Dallas County included in the new district. He is one of only three Black Democrats from Texas in Congress, and has been at the forefront of conversations about racial gerrymandering.
As in the district's current makeup, a majority of the new 33rd District's eligible voters would be non-white, with Hispanic residents forming a plurality of the district's citizens who are old enough to vote. White residents would make up a bigger share of the district's eligible voting population, rising from 23% to more than 35%, according to U.S. Census Bureau estimates.
Johnson is a first-year member of Congress who came from the Texas House, where she represented a district based in Dallas and its northern suburbs.
If it comes to a primary, age would not be a factor — both members are in their 50s.
Houston
The new map could create a messy logjam among Houston Democrats, who are currently down a member because of the vacancy in the solidly Democratic 18th Congressional District.
Democrats represent three other congressional seats in the Houston area: Rep. Lizzie Fletcher in the 7th District, Green in the 9th District and Rep. Sylvia Garcia in the 29th District.
All four seats were redrawn under the GOP's new proposed map, with Green's district undergoing the biggest change. Currently centered in south Houston and cities to the south in Fort Bend and Brazoria counties, the proposed 9th District contains just 2% of the land area and 3% of the people currently represented by Green.
The new district would be based in east Harris County, absorbing conservative territory from GOP districts in the Houston suburbs and exurbs and putting the seat in line to be represented by a Republican. What is now a district Harris won by 44 percentage points would become one that voted for Trump by a 15-point margin.
Fletcher's seat would still favor Democrats and contain about three-quarters of her current district. And Garcia's 29th District was drawn to be even more favorable to Democrats: While about 60% of her constituents would be moved elsewhere and the district would lose its longtime Hispanic-majority status, the 74-year-old Garcia would still live within the new lines and remain safe from Republican challengers.
Most of Green's territory, however, was redrawn into the 18th Congressional District, which several Democrats are vying to represent in its current form in a November special election. But whoever wins could be pitted against Green in the March primary — which will decide who represents the district starting in 2027 — if he opts to shift districts.
In a statement, the 77-year-old Green said he 'will be on the ballot' and would announce his plans after taking time to deliberate.
Now in his 11th two-year term, Green's de facto incumbency could be difficult for any newcomer to overcome.
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