Weather Watch — heavy rains forecast for SA's flood-prone eastern coastal areas in spring

Daily Maverick

7 hours ago

The remainder of the winter and the upcoming spring are expected to be mild. This is a reflection of the global warming trend linked to fossil-fuel use that is literally burning our fragile planet.
The South African Weather Service (Saws) still sees a wetter-than-normal spring for flood-prone coastal areas of the country, while the seasonal rains in the southwest are expected to fade as winter wanes.
That is the upshot of Saws' latest monthly Seasonal Climate Watch, which looks five months ahead – in this case from July to November.
'During late winter and early spring, the southwestern parts of the country are still expected to receive below-normal rainfall. The eastern coastal areas, however, are expected to receive above-normal rainfall during early and mid-spring,' the report said.
And while cold fronts have brought a chill to swathes of South Africa of late, overall the rest of the winter and the spring season are expected to be on the warm side.
'Minimum and maximum temperatures are largely expected to be above-normal for the most part during the late winter and spring seasons,' Saws said.
What this means for you
If you live in the eastern coastal region, beware that floods could be on the cards. Overall, the rest of the winter should be mild and spring is expected to blossom with almost summer-like temperatures. That will be welcomed by many since South Africans don't like the cold as a rule. But it is a reflection of the global warming trend linked to fossil-fuel use that is literally burning our fragile planet.
For the southwestern parts of South Africa it is concerning that the rest of the winter is seen drier than usual during that region's annual wet season. This will have implications for water security and dam levels, and on the farming front may reduce yields for the winter wheat crop.
It is also a red flag for the wildfires that can scorch the region.
Heavier-than-normal spring rains in the eastern coastal areas are also a potential worry given the recent history of flooding in KwaZulu-Natal and the Eastern Cape. But it could bring relief to areas in that region that are still experiencing drought, though that will be offset by warmer-than-normal temperatures.
'The anticipated above-normal rainfall during the early- and mid-spring seasons is unlikely to benefit water reservoirs in the eastern coastal areas (where several settlements are still experiencing moderate drought conditions) due to, among others, the expected above-normal minimum and maximum temperatures, which can result in water losses through the evapotranspiration processes,' the Weather Service said.
'Furthermore, the expected mostly above-normal minimum and maximum temperatures across the country are likely to result in increased demand for cooling during the spring season.'
Meanwhile, the global weather pattern known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains firmly in its neutral phase in between El Niño, which usually brings drought to southern Africa, and the La Niña system, which typically heralds good rains in this region.
Global forecasters such as the US Climate Prediction Centre currently see a less than 50% chance of La Niña forming by the end of 2025, but at least there is scant prospect of El Niño returning during the upcoming summer months. DM