Commodity Radar: Time to buy MCX Aluminium futures in dips, says Religare analyst. Why technicals & fundamentals support trade
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's tariff triggers. The MCX July Aluminium futures were trading with positive bias on Tuesday, taking cues from the overseas peers. They were trading at Rs 253 per kg, marginally up by 0.06% in the evening trade.
On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, aluminium prices hit their highest since November, with the most active contract rising 0.75% to 20,900 yuan ($2,913.26) a ton.
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Meanwhile, the three-month contracts on the LME were hovering around $2646.50 a ton, gaining by 0.65%.
The outlook for aluminium remains bright, says expert Ajit Mishra who is Senior Vice President (SVP) Research at Religare Broking. In his view, it was time to take positions in this base metal.
'Aluminum prices are gradually inching higher following significant policy shifts by the United States, which has announced a 30% tariff on Mexican aluminum products set to take effect from August 1, 2025,' Mishra said.
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The base metal is also finding support from lower supply prospects.
Mishra said that the output from top producer China is due to slow this year as the current production pace is bound by the annual cap of 45 million tons, initially mandated to aid carbon emission targets.
This coincides with expectations of higher demand in Europe as the EU members signaled, he added, highlighting that the EU is expanding its defense goods production and supply for European factories is already limited due to sanctions of major producer Russia.
Technical view
Decoding the technical charts, Mishra said that MCX aluminum has been maintaining the upward track since the last couple of months and continued to give weekly closings above a strong support region of 245.
In his view, bullish stamina is intact in the base metal as the steady higher highs and higher lows pattern in the recent candles signals buyer dominance. Moreover, aluminum has now sustained above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating a shift in momentum towards the bullish side.
Weekly Chart
ETMarkets.com
Traders may consider a buy-on-dips strategy near Rs.250-251 with a stop-loss at Rs.244, targeting Rs.262-264 for the coming weeks.
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