There are 4 signs the economy may be on a weaker footing than the latest data suggests
Neil Dutta, the head of economic research at Renaissance Macro, pointed to a handful of signs in a note this week that suggest the US economy may not be as strong as it seems on paper.
The headline figures suggest otherwise. Real GDP was estimated to grow at an annualized rate of 3% in the second quarter, beating estimates and showing a sharp rebound from the prior three-month period.
But Dutta suggested that things could be weaker at second glance, showcasing various signs of weakness across the housing market, job market, and consumer and corporate finances.
Here are some signs that the economy isn't as strong as it seems.
1. Housing is cooling off
The housing market isn't nearly as hot as it used to be.
Home prices declined 0.34% in the 20 largest US cities in May, according to the Case-Shiller 20 City Home Price Index. That marks the index's third-straight month of declines, Dutta said, one such sign that housing demand remains weak.
Other signs have emerged in the past year to suggest that the US housing market is frozen over.
Pending sales dropped 2.8% year-over-year in June, according to data from the National Association of Realtors.
Meanwhile, active home listings in the US climbed 28% year-over-year in June, according to data from Realtor.com, with total active listings now hovering at their highest level since the pandemic.
"The US housing market is in recession with weakening construction and declines in prices across major markets," Dutta wrote in a separate client note in July.
"The truth is many recent buyers assumed they'd be refinancing into lower rates by now. That has not happened and as a result, we're seeing more homeowners put their homes up for sale."
2. Job market flashing signs of weakness
The US added more jobs than expected last month, while the unemployment rate remained near a historic low, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
But some Americans are feeling differently about their prospects of finding a new job. The Conference Board's Labor Market Differential — which measures the difference between the percentage of consumers who think that jobs are plentiful and percentage who think jobs are hard to get, declined to 11.3, marking a "fresh cycle low," Dutta said.
"The deterioration in the Labor Differential is a sign that labor market conditions are somewhat weaker than one would expect given the low unemployment rate," he wrote.
The job market generally appears to be stuck in a " slow hire, slow fire" phase, Dutta added, pointing to payrolls and layoffs in the private sector holding steady in recent months.
3. A weaker US consumer
More Americans — even in high-income households — are falling behind on debt payments.
Delinquencies among households that earn $150,000 or more have more than doubled since 2023, according to data from the credit-scoring firm VantageScore. That reflects a steeper rise in late payments than lower-earning Americans, with delinquencies rising 60% among households earning between $45,000 and $150,000, and delinquencies rising 22% for households earning less than $45,000.
Dutta says the trend can largely be explained by a weaker job market for white-collar workers. Job-finding prospects for those earning six figures or more have fallen to their worst levels since before the pandemic, Dutta said, citing survey data from the New York Fed.
Consumer spending also appears to be slowing overall. Personal consumption expenditures, one measure of how much Americans are spending on goods and services, slowed its pace of growth to 4.7% year-over-year in June, down from a peak of 5.7% in late 2024.
4. Corporate delinquencies on the rise
Corporate borrowers are also running into trouble. The dollar amount of defaulted corporate debt surged to $27 billion in the second quarter, up from $15 billion in the prior three-month period, data from Moody's shows.
694 companies filed for bankruptcy in 2024, according to a separate analysis from S&P Global. That was the highest amount of global bankruptcies reported for the year since 2010, the firm said.
The average default risk for public US firms also rose to 9.2% at the end of 2024, the highest level since the Great Financial Crisis, Moody's asset management research team wrote in a note in March.
"US credit markets have experienced significant deterioration following recent tariff announcements, with corporate distress accelerating across multiple sectors," Dutta wrote.
Private equity-backed firms are also starting to buckle. PE-backed companies made up around 60% of bankruptcy filings last quarter, Dutta said.
"These firms, many acquired during the low-rate environment of 2022, now face acute liquidity challenges as market conditions tighten," he added.
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Business Upturn
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- Business Upturn
Velocity Trader Exposes Wall Street's Hidden Friday Price Strategy Used to Trigger Short-Term Market Wins
New York, Aug. 04, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — In today's volatile financial markets, retail investors face growing uncertainty—yet one reclusive former attorney has quietly built a decades-long strategy to exploit a pattern that appears every week: Friday market manipulation. With a verified 97.62% win rate across nearly a thousand closed trades, Jim Fink's Velocity Trader system is now revealing how short-term options pricing—crafted by institutional firms—may be used to pinpoint profitable market movements in just 3 to 10 days. This press release breaks down the method, the mechanics, and the mindset behind this low-time commitment trading system. Amid turbulent markets and the erosion of traditional investment confidence, more Americans are searching for alternative trading strategies that offer not only short-term potential—but consistent, repeatable results. Enter Jim Fink, a former Wall Street-connected attorney who turned a modest $50,000 trading account into multi-million-dollar gains using what he describes as a 'Tuesday-to-Friday' market anomaly. Today, after nearly a decade in relative anonymity, Fink is opening up about how options expiration cycles may be silently shaping price movements across the U.S. stock market—and how retail traders can follow along without needing professional tools, complex training, or hours in front of a screen. To learn how this unique Tuesday-to-Friday trading method works, explore the full Velocity Trader system and discover how it identifies weekly expiration patterns hidden in plain sight. Many of these signals are delivered directly to members each Tuesday, offering the potential for trades to play out by that Friday—or the Friday after. Those interested in a low-effort, research-based approach can view this week's featured trade alerts here and see how the system adapts to today's unpredictable market. Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment guidance, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Trading in the stock or options markets involves substantial risk, and individuals should perform their own due diligence or consult with a qualified advisor before making financial decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This content may include references to a subscription-based research service; results are not guaranteed, and testimonials reflect individual experiences which may not be typical. Always invest responsibly. Why Interest in 'Short-Term Options Trading' Is Surging in 2025 The 2025 market environment has been marked by volatility, uncertainty, and sharp reversals—conditions that have left many traditional investors feeling sidelined. With interest rates holding steady after a turbulent cycle of hikes, and inflation concerns weighing heavily on growth sectors, the appeal of long-term buy-and-hold strategies has faded for a large portion of retail traders. In its place, a growing segment of individual investors are exploring short-term options trading strategies designed for faster, more frequent results. Search data from Google Trends shows a sharp increase in search volume for phrases like 'weekly options strategy,' 'Tuesday to Friday trades,' and 'short-term market moves,' particularly during earnings seasons and high-volatility periods. On platforms like Reddit's r/options and r/WallStreetBets, active discussions often center around low-time commitment systems that aim to deliver returns within three to ten days—especially ones designed to navigate institutional behavior during options expiry. This shift in retail sentiment has not gone unnoticed. Financial content creators on YouTube and X (formerly Twitter) are increasingly focused on breakdowns of market anomalies surrounding Friday expirations, with many users reporting experiments in replicating these phenomena with mixed results. Enter Jim Fink's Velocity Trader system—built specifically to operate within this emerging window of opportunity. Rather than attempting to outsmart macroeconomic cycles or predict quarterly earnings, the system focuses on an observable price pattern that recurs every week: a surge or drop in specific equities tied to the expiration of options contracts. These weekly moves—while seemingly chaotic on the surface—follow a deeper, more structured rhythm that Fink believes can be detected, measured, and traded. The market's increased appetite for transparency, autonomy, and fast-cycle trading has made systems like Velocity Trader more appealing in 2025 than ever before. While not intended as a replacement for broader portfolio strategies, this type of approach caters to investors seeking precision-guided tactics for capturing market inefficiencies—without needing to be glued to a screen all day or navigating complex software platforms. From self-directed retirees to part-time traders and financially savvy professionals, the demand for short-horizon, research-driven systems has fueled growing curiosity around strategies like Fink's—especially those that target market behavior over hype, and use timing patterns over forecasts to generate consistent entry points. Velocity Trader as a Response to This Shift As mainstream investing becomes more turbulent, the need for a reliable, low-commitment trading approach has never been greater. Velocity Trader was designed specifically to address this gap—offering a structured way to engage with short-term market movements without requiring technical expertise, real-time monitoring, or exposure to long-term downturns. At the center of this approach is Jim Fink, a former attorney who began experimenting with options trading during his lunch breaks. Working at a law firm that handled major Wall Street clients, Fink had a front-row view of institutional behavior. Over time, he developed a system that could identify patterns in the options market—patterns he believed were not random, but engineered to benefit large firms during the expiration cycle. Rather than try to predict market direction broadly, Fink's strategy zeros in on how specific stocks behave in the days leading up to options expiration. By focusing on Tuesday as the optimal entry point and Friday as the common settlement point, he built a rhythm that aligned with Wall Street's weekly cash flows—and began using that rhythm to place precision-timed trades. The result is a system that takes only minutes to execute, requires no constant screen time, and has shown a high degree of consistency over time. Importantly, it avoids holding stocks outright, sidestepping the risks of long-term market exposure. Instead, Velocity Trader uses a rules-based framework to identify option contracts that may benefit from short-term price movement, allowing investors to participate in potential gains without the typical guesswork. It's this blend of simplicity and strategy that makes Velocity Trader stand out in 2025. With so many investors searching for an alternative to passive portfolios and unpredictable tech swings, Fink's time-tested method offers a way to engage the market without relying on hype, headlines, or speculation. By removing complexity and focusing on repeatable outcomes, Velocity Trader positions itself not as a magic bullet—but as a serious tool for traders seeking clarity in an otherwise noisy environment. For those looking to explore how this system works in real time, visit the official Velocity Trader site to learn more about the weekly trade alerts and how they are delivered. Inside the Velocity Trader Platform: How the System Delivers Weekly Trade Setups Without Daily Screen Time Velocity Trader isn't a course, a classroom, or a coaching program—it's a streamlined system designed to deliver two new trade recommendations every Tuesday morning, directly to members, with the goal of capturing movement triggered by Wall Street's massive Friday options expirations. Each recommendation is structured to play out over a three- to ten-day period, depending on market conditions. This approach is radically different from day trading or trend following. Jim Fink's methodology doesn't rely on technical indicators, chart patterns, or fast-paced decisions. Instead, it begins with a core insight: many of the price movements seen near the end of each week are not random. They're driven by how institutional options contracts are structured—and how those firms need prices to move to remain profitable by Friday. Each Tuesday, members receive a detailed briefing on two targeted opportunities. These alerts are delivered by email (with optional text message support) and include: The exact option ticker symbol Entry price guidance A simple two-sentence summary of why the trade was chosen A ready-made phrase members can read to their broker (ideal for those who prefer placing trades over the phone) Fink also records a brief weekly video explaining the logic behind each recommendation, providing greater transparency without overwhelming users with jargon or technical analysis. These videos are designed for clarity and accessibility—even complete beginners can follow along. One of the most unique aspects of Velocity Trader is its time efficiency. According to Fink, each weekly setup takes no more than ten minutes to execute. There's no need to monitor price swings throughout the day. Once the trades are placed on Tuesday, the system is designed to let the week unfold—with many trades reaching their payout window by that Friday or the next. To better understand how these alerts are structured—and why they're built around Friday market cycles—visit the official Velocity Trader platform here and see how Jim Fink packages institutional insight into a simplified weekly delivery system. What Online Users Are Saying About This Category Across financial forums and content platforms, short-term options trading has become one of the most discussed strategies of 2025. Retail investors, side hustlers, and former long-term stock pickers are increasingly shifting attention to time-sensitive trades that operate on a weekly rhythm. But while the appetite for fast results is growing, so is the confusion around how to make it work without gambling or constant screen time. On Reddit threads like r/options and r/financialindependence, users often share anecdotal wins and losses, trading screenshots, or quick takes on 'what worked this week.' The sentiment is usually split between curiosity and skepticism. Many first-time traders express frustration over not knowing when to enter or exit a position. Others cite timing errors or poor options contract selection as barriers to consistency. In the YouTube and podcast world, creators are experimenting with weekly trade challenges, documenting their attempts to turn $500 into $1,000 in a few days using expiration-based setups. While some have posted occasional gains, few offer the structure or repeatability needed to scale the results. Comment sections are filled with questions about risk exposure, contract types, and how to avoid being 'burned' by surprise reversals. Amid this cultural conversation, there's growing interest in trade systems that simplify execution. Investors are looking for frameworks that do more than just share watchlists or theory—they want straightforward instructions, delivered at the right moment, that take into account how the broader market is behaving. This is where Velocity Trader has captured attention. By focusing not on hype or momentum, but on a fixed weekly entry point and a known institutional pressure pattern, Velocity Trader stands apart from most of what's trending online. It doesn't ask members to decode charts, monitor alerts around the clock, or chase breakouts after the fact. Instead, it gives them a blueprint for action each Tuesday—with the goal of walking away by Friday with a clean exit. For traders exploring how to cut through the noise and build a structured, low-guesswork routine, you can view this week's featured trade briefings here and see what a research-first, rhythm-based system looks like in action. Who Might Gravitate Toward This Product in 2025 Not every investor is looking for long-term compounding or dividend yield. In 2025, a growing segment of the retail market is motivated by flexibility, precision, and the ability to navigate short windows of volatility. While no single system fits every profile, Velocity Trader has drawn interest from several distinct types of market participants. Many subscribers come from professional backgrounds where time is limited. They're business owners, engineers, lawyers, and consultants—individuals who don't have hours to spend analyzing charts or watching CNBC, but still want a method to participate in market gains. The appeal lies in a process that can be executed in minutes on a lunch break or between client meetings, without the need for daily supervision. Another group includes retirees and pre-retirees aiming to build supplemental income without depleting their savings. For them, the idea of holding long-term positions through downturns can feel increasingly risky. The ability to target short-term setups—while using only capital they're comfortable putting to work—offers a sense of control and rhythm. Fink's strategy has also resonated with financially curious learners—people who may have dabbled in stocks or ETFs before, but never ventured into options. The educational aspect of Velocity Trader, particularly the weekly trade rationale videos and the eight-part foundational seminar, gives these users a sense of clarity. They're not just getting alerts—they're learning how a strategy fits together. It's worth emphasizing that this isn't a program designed for aggressive speculation or guaranteed results. Investors who gravitate toward Velocity Trader are typically those seeking structure. They value consistency over hype, and they prefer a rules-based system to intuition or social media-driven trends. They understand that no system is perfect, but they're looking for a way to remove guesswork from the equation. Those exploring whether a structured, weekly system aligns with their goals can visit the official Velocity Trader site to see how the alerts, schedule, and trade philosophy are delivered in practice. Market Category Reflections – Why This Niche Is Expanding In the ever-evolving world of personal finance, one category that has seen sharp growth is the niche of structured short-term trading systems. This expansion is driven by a combination of shifting investor expectations, widespread access to digital brokerages, and a broader skepticism toward long-horizon strategies that often fail to deliver during economic downturns. Historically, short-term trading was reserved for professionals with Bloomberg terminals and direct exchange access. But over the past five years, retail platforms have unlocked access to tools once limited to institutional desks. As a result, more investors are seeking frameworks that leverage this access while reducing exposure to constant volatility. Options contracts—especially weekly expirations—now provide a tactical entry point for traders who want flexibility without a full-time commitment. The emergence of market anomalies around Friday expirations has also drawn attention. Dozens of independent research threads, forum posts, and academic whitepapers have noted that certain equities exhibit unusual movement during the week's final sessions. Whether the result of institutional hedging or options contract pressure, the visibility of these patterns has opened the door for systems that can identify and act on them—like the one used by Velocity Trader. In parallel, key phrases such as 'weekly income strategies,' 'options trading for part-timers,' and '3-day trade opportunities' are climbing in Google search rankings. This suggests a strong and growing interest in approaches that favor agility over accumulation, and responsiveness over passive positioning. As financial content creation grows on platforms like YouTube, Substack, and podcasting networks, more attention is being paid to strategy-based systems with defined rules. Programs like Velocity Trader offer a counterbalance to personality-driven investing advice—emphasizing process over personal brand, and execution over commentary. For those watching the expansion of this niche closely, it's clear that the market is maturing. Structured short-term systems are no longer fringe—they are becoming a defined category within the broader trading landscape. To see how one such system operates in real-time, you can view the full Velocity Trader alert framework here and explore the research principles behind its weekly timing approach. Public Debate – Supporters, Skeptics, and the Signals Behind the Buzz Any strategy that challenges conventional investing wisdom is bound to generate debate—and Velocity Trader is no exception. As news of Jim Fink's 97.62% historical win rate continues to circulate among traders and analysts, the public conversation around weekly options systems has become increasingly vocal. Supporters point to Fink's track record as a rare example of consistency in an unpredictable environment. They appreciate the system's structure: two trades a week, placed at the same time, with a defined logic tied to options expiration pressure. To many, this rhythm offers a sense of control in a market otherwise driven by noise, volatility, and unexpected macroeconomic headlines. Others view the system with skepticism, not because of the results, but because of how unusual the premise is. The idea that price movements may be partially driven by the institutional structure of options contracts—rather than earnings, sentiment, or news—is a provocative assertion. Some financial professionals argue that these patterns may be coincidental, or that they could disappear over time if too many traders begin to exploit them. Still, a growing segment of independent analysts and forum contributors are beginning to document and validate the existence of weekly price compression near expiration. Some refer to it as 'max pain theory,' while others point to institutional hedging behavior as the cause. Regardless of the term used, there is increasing consensus that a subset of short-term price moves are not as random as they once seemed. Meanwhile, in private groups and member communities, Fink's followers continue to post their feedback—sometimes cautiously optimistic, other times enthusiastically supportive. While the system does not promise results, its appeal lies in how it reframes the market itself: not as a chaotic ecosystem to be predicted, but as a series of engineered conditions to be tracked and reacted to. For a deeper look at how this conversation is unfolding and what makes the Velocity Trader system different from other weekly alert services, explore the official breakdown here and see how the strategy is designed to adapt—not predict. About Jim Fink Investing Jim Fink Investing is a research-first platform focused on helping self-directed traders explore time-efficient options strategies grounded in institutional market patterns. The company's flagship service, Velocity Trader, was created to offer structure, transparency, and accessibility to individuals interested in participating in short-term opportunities without requiring constant screen time or advanced trading knowledge. Founded on the belief that market behavior often reflects engineered systems rather than randomness, Jim Fink's methodology emphasizes consistency over speculation. His work centers on identifying repeatable patterns tied to options expiration events—particularly those that occur during weekly Friday settlement cycles. While the strategy does not promise specific results and carries risk like all forms of investing, it offers a framework built around repeatable entry timing, clear trade rationale, and defined trade durations. Education plays a key role in the brand's identity. Velocity Trader members receive access to video briefings, simplified trade instructions, and a full training curriculum designed to demystify the options process. These tools are crafted to empower both new and experienced traders who want to take a structured approach to short-horizon positioning. The company does not manage client funds or provide individualized investment advice. Instead, it operates as a publishing and research organization, offering analysis, tools, and timely alerts for those interested in applying the strategy independently. To learn more about the platform's approach to rhythm-based trading and its commitment to educational access, visit the official Velocity Trader site here for additional details. Contact Jim Fink Investing – Velocity Trader Email: [email protected] [email protected] Phone: (202) 978‑3606 (202) 978‑3606 Website: Disclaimer This press release is for informational purposes only. The content herein does not constitute financial, legal, or medical advice. Velocity Trader is not intended to diagnose, treat, predict, or guarantee any result or outcome. Individual experiences may vary, and outcomes are not assured. Some links in this release may be promotional in nature and may lead to third-party websites. The publisher or author may receive compensation through affiliate commissions if a purchase is made through these links. This compensation does not affect the price you pay and helps support continued research and content publication. All statements made about product features, platform strategies, or training content reflect publicly available information, user discussions, or historical trends, and are not endorsed or validated by regulatory bodies. Please perform your own research before making financial, technological, or purchasing decisions. Disclaimer: The above press release comes to you under an arrangement with GlobeNewswire. Business Upturn takes no editorial responsibility for the same. Ahmedabad Plane Crash
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Toyota Might Bring a New Truck to the U.S. That Would Defy All the Odds
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Yahoo
an hour ago
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Toyota Might Bring a New Truck to the U.S. That Would Defy All the Odds
Currently, just two trucks exist in the compact pickup market — Toyota is prepared to get in on the action. Led by historically low fuel prices, regulatory loopholes and changing consumer preferences, a variety of factors have contributed to the ever-growing size of vehicles in the United States. Ultimately, though, there's no getting around the fact that it's spawned something of an arms race wherein drivers are determined to be behind the wheel of the biggest thing on the road — often more out of a feeling of self-preservation than any real need for the size. However, some automakers (Ford and Hyundai) have heeded the call to downsize their offerings and demonstrated a clear demand for compact pickups. With the Maverick and the Santa Cruz being the only two trucks of their kind on the US market, it seems that Toyota now has its eye on a piece of the pie. Compact competition Since introducing the Maverick in late 2021, Ford has improved on the model's sales performance with each passing year. So, even though some 74,370 buyers lined up for a Maverick in the first full year that it was on the market, that number climbed to 94,058 units in 2023 and then again to 131,142 units in 2024. And here's the thing — despite a tumultuous first half of 2025 plagued by tariffs and other political uncertainties, Ford has managed to keep the momentum going. With 98,078 Mavericks moved to date, the Blue Oval has posted an 8.9 percent improvement compared to 2024. Now, it's worth noting that Hyundai hasn't enjoyed the same kind of success in the compact truck segment with the Santa Cruz. Though the brand managed to grow its pickup sales to 36,675 units in 2023, that number fell to 32,033 in 2024. Hyundai is also down 20 percent on the year at just 16,532 trucks sold. In any case, Ford is showing that an established brand reputation in the compact truck segment can make for big gains, while Hyundai is having better luck with its efforts to attract new EV buyers. Given that Toyota's data projects that it could sell 100,000 to 150,000 compact trucks per year in the U.S. alone, there's still plenty of untapped potential for an automaker known for bestsellers like the mid-size Tacoma and the full-size Tundra. Toyota intentions Toyota recognizes as much. In a recent interview with Bloomberg, Mark Templin, COO of Toyota America, stated the brand was 'looking at it' when discussing the possibility of entering the small truck market. By contrast, Cooper Ericksen, head of planning and strategy for Toyota North America, proved far more forthcoming in his talks with MotorTrend. Along with confirming that 'decisions have been made' and that 'we're committed to it,' he also revealed that the pickup will be a unibody truck based on the existing TNGA platform. Moreover, in speaking to the outlet, Ericksen acknowledged that 'full-size trucks and midsize trucks have really gotten expensive.' While the added cost is warranted for those who demand the capability, not everyone wants something that can take them into parts unknown. Consider the Slate EV, for instance. In just two weeks, the electric truck managed to rack up more than 100,000 reservations, marketed for affordability and customization potential rather than typical pickup considerations like payload or towing capacity. Regardless of the powertrain, it's clear that 'small' is in style. A matter of time In speaking to MotorTrend, Ericksen also confirmed that 'it's not a matter of 'if,' at this point' but rather 'how to make it work.' At the time, Toyota was primarily focused on bolstering its all-electric lineup, and the development of such vehicles was proving to be far too taxing to justify work on a compact truck simultaneously. After all, the brand had previously announced a plan to introduce 24 new or updated models through a revised mixed-energy initiative. However, circumstances have since changed. From the phasing out of federal tax incentives to the increasingly bipartisan anti-EV sentiments, electric cars aren't likely to be at the top of Toyota's agenda. If the brand wants to capitalize on the success of Ford's Maverick, it's only a matter of time before its own small truck hits the market.
