Shayne O'Cass's race-by-race tips, analysis for Winter Stakes Day at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday

News.com.au

3 days ago

Form expert Shayne O'Cass analyses all 10 races for Winter Stakes Day at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday, presenting his race-by-race tips and analysis.
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PORTOFINO (10) was a $750,000 Magic Millions purchase out of Gerry Harvey's draft. He's a son of I Am Invincible out of Harvey's own dual Listed winner Palazzo Pubblico. Portofino's two June trials, both seconds, were indicative of a quality colt in the making. That said, he's not alone there. MARCHON (9), the Wootton Bassett out of Ottawa Stakes placegetter Marchena, was just gliding along throughout when he won his June 20 Heat here. Race experience is gold. RAGING FORCE (10) is on a hat-trick.
Bet: Portofino each-way
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RACE 2: Midway (Bm72) 1200m
Funny how pedigrees work sometimes. Trapeze Artist was a known duffer yet here's one of his sons EQUILIBRIST (7) who ploughs through the wet. I wonder if it has anything to do with the fact that his fourth dam is Easy Date, the mother of one of the great muddies, Snippets. Whether it is heavy or Soft, Equilibrist is in good nick to win this. NOBLE SOLDIER (2) at his best is better than any and all of his rivals. He was good enough first-up in a much deeper race than this one.
Bet: Equilibrist each-way, Noble Soldier to place
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RACE 3: TAB Highway Hcp (C3) 1200m
LET'S GO BRANDON (10) was bought online in May 2024 for $1,250. He's won $37,125 in four starts and take it to the bank, it should be $13,000 more had he not thrown away a potential debut win at Canberra on Black Opal Day. Got his act together now with back-to-back wins and he's not done with yet. There is nothing like Highway form in a Highway. Enter EXIT FEE (6) who has won one and was runner-up to Lisztomania in another. SHOW 'EM HOWL (21) was huge in his Highway debut.
Bet: Let's Go Brandon each-way, quinella 6, 10
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RACE 4: The Agency Real Estate (Bm72) 1300m
DIDDLE DUMPLING (4) had four runs as a two-year-old including back-to-back fifths in Manaal's Sweet Embrace and in the Percy Sykes (Lady Of Camelot was second). She opened her three-year-old season with a second to Aeliana. Bolted in at Wyong first-up. Well up to Saturday city grade. Riff Rocket's little half-sister CODETTA (1) is your rolled gold model of consistency. Paid the price for her barrier 7 of nine last time; hasn't fared any better this weekend either. Nakeeta Jane's son GATEKEEPER (7) could have a high ceiling.
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TARPAULIN (5) earned himself a bit of a boom when he won at the midweeks as a two-year-old. His best run since then, and so far, was his fourth in the Group 2 VRC Danehill Stakes in October 2024. Been off the scene a fair while but his trials indicate a happy and healthy horse ready to race. Loves the wet too. He'll have to be right up to the mark though to beat a very fit and in-form STORM THE RAMPARTS (1). That said, he is right up in the weights. SHALL BE (3) is fast, drawn well, has 2kg off and excels on wet ground.
Bet: Tarpaulin to win
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QUEEN OF THE MILE (3) has by far turned in more good runs than bad ones. It is just plain to see that the race that best suit her is a Saturday city Benchmark 78. So much so that this Saturday will be her sixth '78' in-a-row subsequent to her noteworthy third in the Magic Millions 3&4YO at Wyong on Dec 28. Caveat is; needs it to dry out. USEAPIN (7) is well up to winning this. I made her my best bet last time but she was scratched and I wouldn't be shocked if she is absent again but got to mention her nonetheless.
Bet: Useapin each-way
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RACE 7: Catanach's Jewellers (Bm78) 2000m
GUZUMPED (18) is an emergency with no jockey but he could still get a run and would thus pick up one of the 'free jockeys'. I have been on the son of Dundeel both runs this preparation and they' haven't been at all bad. Third-up, loves the wet, loves 2000m. No one could have missed Ortensia's granddaughter GENTILESCHI (14) in that 1800m Benchmark 78 at Randwick on June 21. She looks ready for 2000m again and excels with the sting out. GOOD BANTER (15) won the Adrian Knox on a Heavy 9.
Bet: Guzumped each-way or if scratched Good Banter each-way
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FLEETWOOD (4) is something of a rarity at Godolphin given he was bought not bred. They must have liked him as $160,000 is not an insignificant sum for an Encryption yearling. He has turned out to be another canny buy from the Royal Blue, having won five races and over $330,000 in a relatively short time. Best of all, he is unbeaten in both starts on Heavy. BUNKER HUT (3) has an inviting and enticing set of numbers right across the board except maybe that he hasn't won on Heavy and all his best form is on Good.
Bet: Fleetwood to win, Daily Double 1st Leg 4, 2nd Leg 14
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RUBY FLYER (14) is the sort of horse who could make his presence felt in The Big Dance if he got there and it was pouring cats and dogs on the day. My point there is that he is one of the best muddies racing all day on Saturday, he is a Randwick Mile winner and was placed in a Rowley Mile. This is 1400m of course but no less suitable for the Brad Widdup-trained gelding. WELWAL (2) was given the perfect ride by Tommy Berry when ripping into the margin behind Headley Grange last start. Getting oh so close. ASTERO (11) is always underrated.
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Beware of VALIMI (14). This is the French import with Kris Lees whose form back home includes three stakes race appearances including the 2023 French 2000 Guineas where ran fifth. What about his Australian runs? They weren't great that is true but it would seem to be that he can only go on Soft and Heavy tracks. And his trials were just fantastic too. Joe Pride-trained horses seem to hold to their form like no other trainer and for that reason alone, LITTLE COINTREAU (8) has to go in somewhere.