Why Nitish is force multiplier, not fallback option, for BJP in Bihar

India Today

01-07-2025

'Nitish Kumar is an asset.' Bihar deputy chief minister Samrat Choudhary of the BJP proclaimed so in a video posted on June 29. 'Even as Leader of the Opposition, I regarded him as an asset—and I do so still,' Choudhary said, asserting that the BJP had embraced Nitish as chief minister of the incumbent government even though his Janata Dal (United) had only 43 seats, and that he would be chief minister again.Such encomiums are expected from a deputy chief minister. Yet, what stands out is that only BJP leaders in Bihar—who wield no real authority to determine the chief ministerial candidate of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA)—have openly championed Nitish. No senior national leader of the party has publicly endorsed Nitish for another chef ministerial term. And therein lies the paradox.advertisementBihar is the only Hindi heartland state the BJP has never governed in its own, even though it earned the second-largest-party status in the 2020 polls, securing 74 of the 243 seats. Today, with 78 MLAs, the BJP is the single-largest party in the state. Yet, it is preparing for the upcoming elections under the leadership of Nitish. This continuing reliance on Nitish reflects hard political arithmetic—and even harsher realities.THE AXIS EFFECT
Since 2005, Nitish has been the axis around which Bihar's politics has turned—equal parts survivor, strategist and stabiliser. Beginning with the October 2005 assembly elections, every state poll—2010, 2015 and 2020—has seen a coalition led by him emerge victorious. In national elections too, Nitish delivered emphatic mandates for the NDA: 32 of 40 seats in 2009, 39 in 2019 and 30 in 2024.advertisementNitish's only serious electoral stumble came in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, when the JD(U) contested on its own and won just two seats. Even then, the party had polled a respectable 16.04 per cent of the votes. In 2020, despite winning only 43 assembly seats, the JD(U)'s core voter base remained largely intact. This enduring support underscores how Nitish's durable vote-bank doesn't erode easily even in adverse conditions. For the BJP, that makes him more than a fallback—in fact, a force multiplier.LEADERSHIP VACUUMThe BJP in Bihar suffers from a leadership crisis. It has no mass leader with the cross-sectional appeal that Nitish commands. While the JD(U) has diminished in recent years, securing just 15.39 per cent of the votes in 2020 and losing deposits in five constituencies, Nitish's grassroots network remains intact. A longstanding reputation for delivering welfare has earned him the loyalty of Mahadalits and Extremely Backward Castes (EBCs), demographics the BJP has yet to make significant inroads into.So, the BJP struggles to field a chief ministerial face with comparable reach. The party may boast of a strong cadre and well-oiled electoral machinery, but Bihar's politics still pivots on personalities. Without a magnetic leader like Nitish, the NDA risks fragmentation in key constituencies.advertisementCASTE ARITHMETIC, STABILITYCaste remains the cardinal axis of Bihar's politics. Though the BJP has made gains among EBCs and Mahadalits—traditionally considered out of its orbit—it still lags behind. These groups once formed the bedrock of Nitish's electoral durability. Even with a reduced vote-share, the JD(U)'s support remains crucial in close contests.Those votes are a necessity. Without a credible ally who can consolidate backward caste support, the BJP would face steep odds in dozens of seats. Nitish's candidacy offers both insulation and ballast: a hedge against the vagaries of caste realignments.Nitish represents continuity in a volatile political landscape. His frequent realignments—breaking away from the BJP to join the mahagathbandhan in 2015, returning in 2017, switching again in 2022 and reuniting with the NDA in 2024—have painted him as an opportunist. But he has maintained administrative stability throughout. His governments have rarely been paralysed by internal dissent, and he has navigated alliance politics with unerring instinct.For the BJP, known to have experimented with new chief ministers in other states, replacing Nitish with an untested chief ministerial face carries unnecessary risk. For ally JD(U), the post of chief minister remains non-negotiable. Given Bihar's tight electoral math, where a handful of seats can determine government formation, the BJP may be disinclined to upset a working formula—at least until the results are in.advertisementA FIREWALL AGAINST OPPOSITIONTejashwi Yadav's Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) commands a firm grip over the Yadav-Muslim voter bloc—over 30 per cent of Bihar's electorate. In 2020, the RJD emerged as the single-largest party with 75 seats but failed to form government due to allies performing below par. Even in a weakened state, Nitish's party continues to eat into the RJD's appeal among non-Yadav OBCs and EBCs, thereby acting as a bulwark against Opposition consolidation.Remove Nitish from the equation and that firewall disappears. Critical voters might drift to the RJD or abstain altogether. For the BJP, Nitish thus is not just an electoral partner but a buffer against the potential resurgence of the mahagathbandhan. Nationally, the BJP's alliance with Nitish helps project a broader, more inclusive image—softening its often-cited upper-caste orientation. In Bihar, where perceptions matter as much as performance, this visual of coalition breadth is electorally valuable.BIHAR THE EXCEPTIONNo BJP leader has ever served as chief minister of Bihar. Since 2005, that role has been monopolised by Nitish, except for a brief stint by Jitan Ram Manjhi in 2014-15. Even the most prominent BJP faces from the state have failed to match his popular traction. The Bihar 'exception' is not simply an oddity—it is a structural legacy that the BJP must reckon with.advertisementAs assembly polls approach, the BJP finds itself caught between its rising organisational strength and an inescapable reliance on Nitish. Among its new crop of leaders, none yet possess his blend of caste arithmetic, administrative track record, and pan-Bihari acceptability.The BJP may dominate national politics, but in Bihar, the formula for power still includes Nitish. Until the BJP can anoint a successor who rivals his charisma and cross-caste reach, it has little choice but to stay tethered to the man known across the state simply as 'Saheb'.Subscribe to India Today Magazine- EndsMust Watch