Latest news with #ATBEconomics
Cision Canada
26-06-2025
- Business
- Cision Canada
Alberta's economy: Finding a footing in turbulent times
ATB Financial Quarterly Economic Outlook EDMONTON, AB, June 26, 2025 /CNW/ - ATB Financial's latest economic outlook shows a modest upgrade to the province's growth forecast, even as global trade negotiations and geopolitical tensions remain key sources of uncertainty. The report notes some de-escalation in trade tensions since the early spring, which offers a cautious improvement to the economic picture. While the broader trade landscape remains challenging, Alberta's economy continues to show a degree of resilience, underpinned by activity in residential construction, steady energy production, and sustained population growth. Real GDP is forecast to grow by 1.9% in 2025 and 2.2% in 2026. That's an upgrade from 1.5% and 1.9%, respectively, in March. "Alberta's economy is feeling the effects of the trade war, and the outlook for oil prices has softened. However, we expect that Alberta's economy will continue to weather the turmoil better than other provinces more exposed to U.S. tariffs," says ATB Financial's Chief Economist, Mark Parsons. "While population-driven demand and energy exports provide some foundational support, the unemployment rate is expected to remain elevated as employers remain cautious on hiring and more people enter the workforce." ATB Economics forecasts that the Alberta economy will outpace the expected Canadian growth of 1.0 per cent this year. Alberta's higher growth will be driven by home construction and energy production supported by the Trans Mountain Expansion. Natural gas producers will benefit from the start of LNG Canada and increased demand from AI data centres. A broadening of Alberta's economic base, with recent expansions in sectors such as food processing, petrochemicals, and technology, supports the longer term outlook. "While U.S. trade policy has been highly disruptive, it has also shone a spotlight on Canada's domestic challenges that long pre-dated President Trump's second term. In particular, there will need to be a sustained improvement in private capital investment in Alberta and Canada to drive future economic growth and productivity. Successfully fast-tracking major projects represents a clear upside to our forecast." added Parsons. While the path forward is not without its challenges, solid fundamentals support Alberta's medium term outlook, namely, abundant natural resources, a skilled and young workforce, and relatively affordable housing. About ATB Financial With $64.2 billion in assets, ATB Financial is a leading financial institution that started in Alberta with the focus of putting people first. Our success comes from our more than 5,000 team members who love to deliver exceptional experiences to over 835,000 clients across our Personal and Business Banking, ATB Wealth Management and ATB Capital Markets businesses. ATB provides expert advice, services and products through our many branches and agencies, our 24-hour Client Care Centre, four entrepreneur centres and our digital banking options. ATB powers possibilities for our clients, communities and beyond. ATB is bronze certified as part of the Partnership Accreditation in Indigenous Relations commissioned by the Canadian Council for Indigenous Business. More information about ATB can be found at General Disclosure ATB Financial's Economic Outlook is intended for general information and educational purposes only and should not be considered specific legal, financial, tax or other professional advice or recommendations. Information presented is believed to be reliable and up-to-date but it is not guaranteed to be accurate or a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgement of the authors as of the date of publication and are subject to change. The actual outcome may be materially different. ATB Financial and any of its affiliates are not liable for any errors or omissions in the information, analysis or views contained in this report, or for any loss or damage suffered. No endorsement of any third parties or their advice, opinions, information, products or services is expressly given or implied by ATB Financial or any of its affiliates and related entities.
Edmonton Journal
17-06-2025
- Business
- Edmonton Journal
'We have to be bold': Saskatchewan, Alberta premiers on energy and restoring investor confidence
Article content Moe said he's 'cautiously optimistic,' a shift from pessimism during the past several years under former prime minister Justin Trudeau. 'There are some comments from this prime minister that I truly think we can get behind,' said Moe. Smith noted the importance of Alberta's exports to the U.S. and elsewhere. Oil from the province goes to 55 refineries in the U.S., 20 of which are 100 per cent reliant on Canadian oil. In addition, Alberta supplies almost 60 per cent of crude imports to the U.S. and more than 8.6 billion cubic feet of natural gas daily, according to Smith. According to ATB Economics, more than 88 per cent of Alberta's exports were to the U.S. last year, nearly the same as in 2023. For 2024, energy products accounted for 82 per cent of the province's exports to the U.S. 'Our province is already a cornerstone of North American energy security — whether (the) U.S. president will admit it or not, we are critical to the United States' supply,' said Smith.
Calgary Herald
16-06-2025
- Business
- Calgary Herald
'We have to be bold': Saskatchewan, Alberta premiers on energy and restoring investor confidence
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith and Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe are aiming for a joint front on energy, infrastructure and other issues. Article content Smith and Moe discussed national energy security and Prime Minister Mark Carney's notion of Canada becoming an 'energy superpower' during an event hosted by Enserva, an energy sector association, at the Calgary Telus Convention Centre on Monday. Article content Moe noted that he's 'cautiously optimistic' about the current situation, a shift from pessimism during the past several years under former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Article content Article content 'There are some comments from this prime minister that I truly think we can get behind,' said Moe, highlighting Carney's notion of Canada becoming a 'global energy superpower.' Article content Smith noted the importance of Alberta's exports south of the border and elsewhere. Oil from the province goes to 55 refineries in the U.S., 20 of which are 100 per cent reliant on Canadian oil. In addition, Alberta supplies almost 60 per cent of crude imports to the U.S. and more than 8.6 billion cubic feet of natural gas daily, according to Smith. Article content According to ATB Economics, over 88 per cent of Alberta's exports were to the U.S. last year, nearly the same as in 2023. For 2024, energy products also accounted for 82 per cent of the province's exports to the U.S. Article content Article content 'Our province is already a cornerstone of North American energy security, whether (the) U.S. president will admit it or not, we are critical to the United States' supply,' said Smith. Article content Regarding some from the U.S. taking about 'American energy dominance,' Moe said: 'You need to put the word north in front of your statement, because there is no American energy dominance if you're not going to have North American energy dominance, North American security.' Article content According to Moe, the opportunity is 'ripe' for Canada, and not shifting policies around energy would be the 'greatest missed opportunity that this nation has ever experienced.'
Calgary Herald
28-05-2025
- Business
- Calgary Herald
Varcoe: U.S. air travel demand 'has not recovered' yet from Canadians cancelling trips south, says WestJet CEO
Article content 'If I just look into how our next couple of months are booked, then I see sort of mid-to-high teens (percentage) less bookings than there were a year ago,' he said after the speech. Article content The phenomenon of Canadians opting not to travel to the U.S. has been showing up in cross-border travel statistics for several months. Article content The country's largest airline, Air Canada, reported earlier this month that it was seeing booking on transborder markets drop by low teens percentage points, on average, for the following six months. Article content In April, return trips by Canadians by air fell 20 per cent compared with the same month a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada preliminary figures. Article content Return trips by automobile plunged 35 per cent — the fourth straight month of year-over-year declines in both categories. Article content A research note by ATB Economics on Wednesday pointed out the number of Canadians returning from south of the border through the Calgary and Edmonton airports dropped 5.6 per cent during the first four months of 2025 from year-earlier levels. Article content Article content And it's not just Canadian flyers showing their displeasure with the trade war by shifting their travel patterns. Article content Through April, the number of Canadians returning from the U.S. by both air and road fell 22 per cent, and for Alberta, it decreased eight per cent from the same period last year, said ATB deputy chief economist Rob Roach. Article content The trade conflict will lead to more Albertans travelling to other countries outside the U.S., but it will also likely see more consumers taking vacations and spending their tourism dollars inside the country, Roach said in an interview. Article content 'I do think it's a temporary thing, but it will last and go (on) as long as the trade war is hot,' he said Wednesday. Article content 'They are still tariffs and we are one tweet away — or Truth Social post away — from this blowing up again. So, until there's a sense that things are back to normal, I think we'll see this reflected in the actual numbers.' Article content Article content Article content After Prime Minister Mark Carney met with Trump in Washington earlier this month, the annexation discussion subsided from the White House. Article content However, the U.S. president mentioned it again on social media Tuesday, saying Canada could join his country's Golden Dome defence system for $61 billion but it would cost 'ZERO DOLLARS if they become our cherished 51st state. They are considering our offer!' Article content How long could a travel boycott continue? Article content 'We do assume that at some point in time, there will be some kind of agreement, hopefully,' von Hoensbroech added. Article content 'What we have seen in the past in our industry is that whenever there's a change in demand pattern for political reasons, it's usually transitional, and long-term demand trends usually flow back.' Article content Susan Bell, a senior vice-president with consultancy Rystad Energy, said the decline in travel to the U.S. isn't just coming from Canada, but also from fewer travellers coming from other countries — and it's showing up in less jet fuel demand. Article content About 20 per cent of U.S. aviation fuel demand is typically tied to international flights. Article content
