Latest news with #HurricaneHunter
Yahoo
15-07-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Invest 93L could strengthen into tropical depression. See spaghetti models, Florida impact
The National Hurricane Center said a tropical depression could form in the Gulf this week after a system of low pressure moves across Florida from the Atlantic. Forecasters have been watching the system — now designated as Invest 93L — for several days. As you slept, chances for development continued to tick up and now stand at 40% over the next 48 hours. ➤ Track all active storms ➤ Weather alerts via text: Sign up to get updates about current storms and weather events by location The next named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season will be Dexter. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is expected over portions of Florida, which could bring localized flash flooding through mid-week. Later in the week, heavy rainfall could shift into the north-central Gulf Coast. Historically, the fourth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season arrives Aug. 15. The last two named storms of the season — Barry and Chantal — developed earlier than normal. Here's the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center as of 8 a.m. July 15: Satellite and radar data indicate the shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the low pressure located just offshore of the east coast of Florida remains disorganized. This system is forecast to move westward across the Florida Peninsula today and then reach the northeastern Gulf by Wednesday, July 16. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for additional development, and a tropical depression could form while the system moves across the northeastern and north-central of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized flash flooding over portions of Florida through mid-week. Heavy rainfall could also cause flash flooding for portions of the north-central Gulf Coast during the middle to latter portions of this week. Formation chance through 48 hours: medium, 40 percent. Formation chance through 7 days: medium, 40 percent. Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts. Short for investigation, the National Hurricane Center uses the term invest for areas of low pressure it is monitoring for potential development into a tropical depression or storm. Invests are not tropical depressions or tropical storms. They're usually clusters of showers and thunderstorms, and just because they've been designated as an invest does not guarantee they'll strengthen into a tropical storm or hurricane. Invests run from 90 to 99, followed by a letter: L for the Atlantic basin and E for those in the eastern Pacific. After 99, it starts over again and the next invest would be 90. Once something has been designated as an invest, specialized data sets and computer models can begin, including scheduling Hurricane Hunter aircraft missions and running spaghetti models. Get ready for some heavy rain and localized flash flooding over portions of Florida through mid-week, even if a tropical system doesn't develop, according to the National Hurricane Center. "Heavy downpours are expected to continue across much of the Florida Peninsula through Tuesday night. Thunderstorms, infused with tropical moisture, could produce more than 4 inches of rain," said AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva. Those at the Florida beaches will also experience rough surf and strong rip currents into Wednesday. ➤ How to set up emergency cellphone notifications for flash flood warnings and safety tips ➤ Excessive rainfall forecast "A more organized tropical system would bring a larger swath of heavy rain and a more widespread flooding risk," DaSilva added. AccuWeather forecasters Tuesday, July 15, were predicting a tropical depression will make landfall in southeastern Louisiana Thursday morning, July 17. "The farther south that the tropical rainstorm is able to travel over Florida, the longer it will have over the Gulf to strengthen before landfall," DaSilva said. It's not out the question that, in this scenario, the tropical system would have enough time to become a tropical storm. National Weather Service offices around Florida warned on X it was still too early to determine specifics about the track, strength or impacts from Invest 93L and advised residents to monitor forecasts for the latest updates. Pensacola, western Panhandle: Heavy rain could lead to flooding concerns by mid to late week with a high risk of rip currents expected by Thursday. Local impacts will depend on whether this system stays near the coast or out over the Gulf. Tallahassee, central Panhandle: Rain chances ramp up Wednesday and Thursday regardless of development Jacksonville, North/Northeast Florida: Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized flash flooding over portions of Florida and the north-central Gulf coast through the middle to latter portion of this week. Daytona Beach to Stuart, East/Central Florida: Low pressure off of the Florida East Coast will move onshore later this morning/early afternoon and track west across the peninsula. Precipitation along the coast this morning will spread inland with heavy rain. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches through Wednesday expected, with locally higher amounts of 4-plus inches in spots that receive heavy rainfall multiple days in a row. West Palm Beach to Naples, South/Southwest Florida: Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop across the region again today as the tropical disturbance begins to cross the Florida Peninsula. An isolated severe storm or two will be possible. An isolated severe storm is possible, along with strong wind gusts. Fort Myers to Sarasota, West/Southwest Florida: More showers and thunderstorms are expected across the region today, but mainly during this afternoon and evening. Locally heavy rainfall with flooding in urban, low lying, and poor drainage areas possible, along with gusty winds up to 50 mph An average Atlantic hurricane season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. Here's when this year's named storms have developed, compared to historical averages: Tropical Storm Andrea: formed June 24. Average start date: June 20 Tropical Storm Barry: formed June 29. Average start date: July 17 Tropical Storm Chantal: formed July 5. Average start date: Aug. 3. Next up, Dexter: Average state date: Aug. 15, with the average first hurricane forming Aug. 11. Here are the names for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, along with how to pronounce them: Andrea (June 24) Barry (June 29) Chantal (July 5) Dexter: DEHK-ster Erin: AIR-rin Fernand: fair-NAHN Gabrielle: ga-bree-ELL Humberto: oom-BAIR-toh Imelda: ee-MEHL-dah Jerry: JEHR-ee Karen: KAIR-ren Lorenzo: loh-REN-zoh Melissa: meh-LIH-suh Nestor: NES-tor Olga: OAL-guh Pablo: PAHB-lo Rebekah: reh-BEH-kuh Sebastien: se-BAS-tee-en Tanya: TAHN-yuh Van: van Wendy: WEN-dee The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30. Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said. The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories. Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include: Tropical cyclone is the generic term used by the National Weather Service, NOAA and the National Hurricane Center for any tropical system, even if it's in the tropical Atlantic basin. To be more precise, a tropical cyclone is a "rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has closed, low-level circulation," NOAA sadi. Once maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph, what it is called is determined by where it originated: : for storms in the North Atlantic, central North Pacific, and eastern North Pacific. : for storms in the Northwest Pacific. : for storms in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean. We will update our tropical weather coverage daily. Download your local site's app to ensure you're always connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here. This story has been updated to include new information. This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: Hurricane center tracks Invest 93L: Spaghetti models; Florida forecast
Indianapolis Star
15-07-2025
- Climate
- Indianapolis Star
Hurricane season 2025 may see 4th tropical storm. Will Invest 93L become Dexter? Travel forecast
The National Hurricane Center is tracking an area of low pressure, now designated as Invest 93L, off the east coast of Florida, and chances for tropical development have increased if you're considering traveling south for summer vacation. Some areas of Florida could see more than 7 inches of rain − according to the National Weather Service − as the system is forecast to move west into the Gulf Tuesday, July 15. Currently, a 40% chance of tropical development exists for the next seven days, and a 30% chance is possible over the next 48 hours. Here's what we know from the National Hurricane Center as of 8 p.m. July 14: At 8 p.m. July 14, the National Hurricane Center said Invest 93L — an area of low pressure located offshore of the east coast of Florida — was producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms primarily south of the center. ➤ Track Invest 93L This system is forecast to move westward across the Florida Peninsula on Tuesday (July 15) and Tuesday night, eventually moving into the northeastern Gulf by the middle part of this week. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for additional development if the system remains offshore, and a tropical depression could form as the system moves across the northeastern and north-central Gulf by the middle to latter part of this week. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized flash flooding over portions of Florida and the north-central Gulf coast through the middle to latter portion of this week. Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts. The next storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season will be named Dexter. ➤ Track all active storms There have been three hurricane season storms in 2025, and Invest 93L could be number four. Historically, the fourth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season arrives Aug. 15. The last two named storms of the season — Barry and Chantal — developed earlier than normal. ➤ Weather alerts via text: Sign up to get updates about current storms and weather events by location Short for investigation, the National Hurricane Center uses the term invest for areas of low pressure it is monitoring for potential development into a tropical depression or storm. Invests are not tropical depressions or tropical storms. They're usually clusters of showers and thunderstorms, and just because they've been designated as an invest does not guarantee they'll strengthen into a tropical storm or hurricane. Invests run from 90 to 99, followed by a letter: L for the Atlantic basin and E for those in the eastern Pacific. After 99, it starts over again, and the next invest would be 90. Once something has been designated as an invest, specialized data sets and computer models can begin, including scheduling Hurricane Hunter aircraft missions and running spaghetti models. ➤ Excessive rainfall forecast "Regardless of development, an increase in showers and thunderstorms can occur from the Carolinas into Florida and along parts of the Gulf coast which can lead to localized flooding. Rough surf and rip currents can also occur," according to AccuWeather. ➤ How to set up emergency cellphone notifications for flash flood warnings and safety tips ➤ Excessive rainfall forecast "Heavy rainfall with flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas are possible, regardless of development," the National Weather Service Tampa Bay agreed. Expect rain chances in the Tallahassee area to increase Wednesday and Thursday, the National Hurricane Center Tallahassee said. On July 14, damaging wind gusts in the afternoon could accompany strong storms, along with some hail. Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Monday, July 14, and could bring frequent lightning, strong winds of 40 to 60 mph and locally heavy downpours, according to the National Weather Service Jacksonville. The National Weather Service in Indianapolis expects partly sunny skies, with a high near 87 on Tuesday. However, scattered showers and thunderstorms will arrive mainly after 2 p.m. The chance of precipitation hits 50%, with new rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Severe storms are not expected in Central Indiana, according to a hazardous weather outlook. Still, Hoosiers should be reminded that heavy rain and lightning are threats from any storm. An average Atlantic hurricane season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. Here's when this year's named storms have developed, compared to historical averages: Here are the names for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, along with how to pronounce them: The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30. Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said. The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories. Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include: Tropical cyclone is the generic term used by the National Weather Service, NOAA and the National Hurricane Center for any tropical system, even if it's in the tropical Atlantic basin. To be more precise, a tropical cyclone is a "rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has closed, low-level circulation," NOAA said. Once maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph, what it is called is determined by where it originated:
Japan Today
10-07-2025
- Climate
- Japan Today
Hurricane forecasters are losing 3 key satellites ahead of peak storm season
By Chris Vagasky About 600 miles off the west coast of Africa, large clusters of thunderstorms begin organizing into tropical storms every hurricane season. They aren't yet in range of Hurricane Hunter flights, so forecasters at the National Hurricane Center rely on weather satellites to peer down on these storms and beam back information about their location, structure and intensity. The satellite data helps meteorologists create weather forecasts that keep planes and ships safe and prepare countries for a potential hurricane landfall. Now, meteorologists are about to lose access to three of those satellites. On June 25, the Trump administration issued a service change notice announcing that the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program, DMSP, and the Navy's Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center would terminate data collection, processing and distribution of all DMSP data no later than June 30. The data termination was postponed until July 31 following a request from the head of NASA's Earth Science Division. I am a meteorologist who studies lightning in hurricanes and helps train other meteorologists to monitor and forecast tropical cyclones. Here is how meteorologists use the DMSP data and why they are concerned about it going dark. Looking inside the clouds At its most basic, a weather satellite is a high-resolution digital camera in space that takes pictures of clouds in the atmosphere. These are the satellite images you see on most TV weather broadcasts. They let meteorologists see the location and some details of a hurricane's structure, but only during daylight hours. Meteorologists can use infrared satellite data, similar to a thermal imaging camera, at all hours of the day to find the coldest cloud-top temperatures, highlighting areas where the highest wind speeds and rainfall rates are found. But while visible and infrared satellite imagery are valuable tools for hurricane forecasters, they provide only a basic picture of the storm. It's like a doctor diagnosing a patient after a visual exam and checking their temperature. For more accurate diagnoses, meteorologists rely on the DMSP satellites. The three satellites orbit Earth 14 times per day with special sensor microwave imager/sounder instruments, or SSMIS. These let meteorologists look inside the clouds, similar to how an MRI in a hospital looks inside a human body. With these instruments, meteorologists can pinpoint the storm's low-pressure center and identify signs of intensification. Precisely locating the center of a hurricane improves forecasts of the storm's future track. This lets meteorologists produce more accurate hurricane watches, warnings and evacuations. Hurricane track forecasts have improved by up to 75% since 1990. However, forecasting rapid intensification is still difficult, so the ability of DMPS data to identify signs of intensification is important. About 80% of major hurricanes – those with wind speeds of at least 111 mph (179 kilometers per hour) – rapidly intensify at some point, ramping up the risks they pose to people and property on land. Finding out when storms are about to undergo intensification allows meteorologists to warn the public about these dangerous hurricanes. Where are the defense satellites going? NOAA's Office of Satellite and Product Operations described the reason for turning off the flow of data as a need to mitigate 'a significant cybersecurity risk.' The three satellites have already operated for longer than planned. The DMSP satellites were launched between 1999 and 2009 and were designed to last for five years. They have now been operating for more than 15 years. The United States Space Force recently concluded that the DMSP satellites would reach the end of their lives between 2023 and 2026, so the data would likely have gone dark soon. Are there replacements for the DMSP satellites? Three other satellites in orbit – NOAA-20, NOAA-21 and Suomi NPP – have a microwave instrument known as the advanced technology microwave sounder. The advanced technology microwave sounder, or ATMS, can provide data similar to the special sensor microwave imager/sounder, or SSMIS, but at a lower resolution. It provides a more washed-out view that is less useful than the SSMIS for pinpointing a storm's location or estimating its intensity. The U.S. Space Force began using data from a new defense meteorology satellite, ML-1A, in late April 2025. ML-1A is a microwave satellite that will help replace some of the DMSP satellites' capabilities. However, the government hasn't announced whether the ML-1A data will be available to forecasters, including those at the National Hurricane Center. Why are satellite replacements last minute? Satellite programs are planned over many years, even decades, and are very expensive. The current geostationary satellite program launched its first satellite in 2016 with plans to operate until 2038. Development of the planned successor for GOES-R began in 2019. Similarly, plans for replacing the DMSP satellites have been underway since the early 2000s. Delays in developing the satellite instruments and funding cuts caused the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System and Defense Weather Satellite System to be canceled in 2010 and 2012 before any of their satellites could be launched. The 2026 NOAA budget request includes an increase in funding for the next-generation geostationary satellite program, so it can be restructured to reuse spare parts from existing geostationary satellites. The budget also terminates contracts for ocean color, atmospheric composition and advanced lightning mapper instruments. A busy season remains The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, is forecast to be above average, with six to 10 hurricanes. The most active part of the season runs from the middle of August to the middle of October, after the DMSP satellite data is set to be turned off. Hurricane forecasters will continue to use all available tools, including satellite, radar, weather balloon and dropsonde data, to monitor the tropics and issue hurricane forecasts. But the loss of satellite data, along with other cuts to data, funding and staffing, could ultimately put more lives at risk. Chris Vagasky is a meteorologist and Research Program Manager, University of Wisconsin-Madison. The Conversation is an independent and nonprofit source of news, analysis and commentary from academic experts. External Link © The Conversation
Fast Company
08-07-2025
- Climate
- Fast Company
Hurricane forecasters are losing key satellites. What to know
About 600 miles off the west coast of Africa, large clusters of thunderstorms begin organizing into tropical storms every hurricane season. They aren't yet in range of Hurricane Hunter flights, so forecasters at the National Hurricane Center rely on weather satellites to peer down on these storms and beam back information about their location, structure and intensity. The satellite data helps meteorologists create weather forecasts that keep planes and ships safe and prepare countries for a potential hurricane landfall. Now, meteorologists are about to lose access to three of those satellites. On June 25, 2025, the Trump administration issued a service change notice announcing that the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program, DMSP, and the Navy's Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center would terminate data collection, processing and distribution of all DMSP data no later than June 30. The data termination was postponed until July 31 following a request from the head of NASA's Earth Science Division. I am a meteorologist who studies lightning in hurricanes and helps train other meteorologists to monitor and forecast tropical cyclones. Here is how meteorologists use the DMSP data and why they are concerned about it going dark. Looking inside the clouds At its most basic, a weather satellite is a high-resolution digital camera in space that takes pictures of clouds in the atmosphere. These are the satellite images you see on most TV weather broadcasts. They let meteorologists see the location and some details of a hurricane's structure, but only during daylight hours. Meteorologists can use infrared satellite data, similar to a thermal imaging camera, at all hours of the day to find the coldest cloud-top temperatures, highlighting areas where the highest wind speeds and rainfall rates are found. But while visible and infrared satellite imagery are valuable tools for hurricane forecasters, they provide only a basic picture of the storm. It's like a doctor diagnosing a patient after a visual exam and checking their temperature. For more accurate diagnoses, meteorologists rely on the DMSP satellites. The three satellites orbit Earth 14 times per day with special sensor microwave imager/sounder instruments, or SSMIS. These let meteorologists look inside the clouds, similar to how an MRI in a hospital looks inside a human body. With these instruments, meteorologists can pinpoint the storm's low-pressure center and identify signs of intensification. Precisely locating the center of a hurricane improves forecasts of the storm's future track. This lets meteorologists produce more accurate hurricane watches, warnings and evacuations. Hurricane track forecasts have improved by up to 75% since 1990. However, forecasting rapid intensification is still difficult, so the ability of DMPS data to identify signs of intensification is important. About 80% of major hurricanes—those with wind speeds of at least 111 mph (179 kilometers per hour)— rapidly intensify at some point, ramping up the risks they pose to people and property on land. Finding out when storms are about to undergo intensification allows meteorologists to warn the public about these dangerous hurricanes. Where are the defense satellites going? NOAA's Office of Satellite and Product Operations described the reason for turning off the flow of data as a need to mitigate ' a significant cybersecurity risk.' The three satellites have already operated for longer than planned. The DMSP satellites were launched between 1999 and 2009 and were designed to last for five years. They have now been operating for more than 15 years. The United States Space Force recently concluded that the DMSP satellites would reach the end of their lives between 2023 and 2026, so the data would likely have gone dark soon. Are there replacements for the DMSP satellites? Three other satellites in orbit—NOAA-20, NOAA-21 and Suomi NPP—have a microwave instrument known as the advanced technology microwave sounder. The advanced technology microwave sounder, or ATMS, can provide data similar to the special sensor microwave imager/sounder, or SSMIS, but at a lower resolution. It provides a more washed-out view that is less useful than the SSMIS for pinpointing a storm's location or estimating its intensity. The U.S. Space Force began using data from a new defense meteorology satellite, ML-1A, in late April 2025. ML-1A is a microwave satellite that will help replace some of the DMSP satellites' capabilities. However, the government hasn't announced whether the ML-1A data will be available to forecasters, including those at the National Hurricane Center. Why are satellite replacements last-minute? Satellite programs are planned over many years, even decades, and are very expensive. The current geostationary satellite program launched its first satellite in 2016 with plans to operate until 2038. Development of the planned successor for GOES-R began in 2019. Similarly, plans for replacing the DMSP satellites have been underway since the early 2000s. Delays in developing the satellite instruments and funding cuts caused the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System and Defense Weather Satellite System to be canceled in 2010 and 2012 before any of their satellites could be launched. The 2026 NOAA budget request includes an increase in funding for the next-generation geostationary satellite program, so it can be restructured to reuse spare parts from existing geostationary satellites. The budget also terminates contracts for ocean color, atmospheric composition and advanced lightning mapper instruments. A busy season remains The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, is forecast to be above average, with six to 10 hurricanes. The most active part of the season runs from the middle of August to the middle of October, after the DMSP satellite data is set to be turned off. Hurricane forecasters will continue to use all available tools, including satellite, radar, weather balloon and dropsonde data, to monitor the tropics and issue hurricane forecasts. But the loss of satellite data, along with , could ultimately put more lives at risk.
Yahoo
05-07-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
National Hurricane Center increases odds of tropical development near Florida over July 4th weekend
Chances for a tropical system to develop continue to increase, although there is a bit of good news for Florida over the Fourth of July holiday weekend, according to forecasters. Well, maybe not great news if rain over a holiday weekend isn't your thing. An area near the U.S. coast is being monitored for slow tropical development in the coming days. The large area of interest is located a few hundred miles to the east of Florida's Space Coast, according to AccuWeather. ➤ Track all active storms ➤ Weather alerts via text: Sign up to get updates about current storms and weather events by location The system has a 60% chance for development over the next seven days and 30% chance over the next 48 hours, as of the 2 p.m. advisory July 3. The good news is that forecasts call for potential development to occur in the Atlantic, instead of in the Gulf, which could have sent the system over Florida. Current forecasts call for the system of low pressure to develop near Florida or off the southeastern coast of the United States either on the Fourth of July or on July 5, , the National Hurricane Center said. It's then expected to drift north or northeast, away from Florida. Regardless of development, the system could bring up to 6 inches of rain to some portions of Florida through the Fourth of July weekend, according to the National Weather Service. The next named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season will be Chantal. In the eastern Pacific, Flossie has weakened into a tropical storm as it moves away from Mexico. Here's the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center as of 2 p.m. July 3: An area of low pressure is forecast to develop along a weakening frontal boundary near Florida or the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States on Friday or Saturday. Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for some slow development, but a tropical or subtropical depression could form in this region over the weekend or early next week while the system drifts northward or northeastward. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible across portions of the southeast U.S.,particularly across the west-central Florida coast. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on the Fourth of July, if necessary. Formation chance through 48 hours: low, near 30 percent. Formation chance through 7 days: medium, 60 percent. "Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible across portions of the southeast U.S., particularly across West-Central Florida," the Florida Department of Emergency Management said. "Those heading to the beaches for the holiday weekend from northern Florida and the Alabama and Mississippi panhandles to the Carolinas are urged to monitor the forecast, as there may be rough surf and rip currents and perhaps gusty winds should a tropical depression or storm develop," said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert, adding, "We feel the development window is from around July 4 to early next week." "From July 4 through early next week, conditions will favor rounds of drenching thunderstorms from parts of Florida to the coastal Carolinas, fueled by tropical moisture and lingering atmospheric instability," AccuWeather said. The system of low pressure expected to develop over the holiday weekend is being squeezed between a high-pressure system moving east from the Ohio Valley and the Bermuda High over the central Atlantic, according to AccuWeather. "Which high ends up exerting more influence may determine the track of the tropical area of interest, should it develop," DaSilva said. "If the Bermuda high is stronger, it could push the tropical feature close to the U.S. coast and potentially shorten the development window. "On the other hand, should the high building in from the Midwest be stronger, it could shunt the tropical feature more offshore over the Atlantic, where it might have more time to evolve and strengthen." Flossie has weakened and is now a tropical storm with 60-mph winds, according to the National Hurricane Center at 2 a.m. MST. Steady weakening is expected during the next day or so, with the system forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low later July 3. Flossie is expected to move toward the west-northwest at 9 mph. This forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time. This forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time. The hatched areas on the National Hurricane Center's tropical outlook map indicate "areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop," said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome. The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop, with yellow being low, orange medium, and red high. The National Hurricane Center generally doesn't issue tropical advisories until there is a named storm, but there is an exception. "If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won't wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn't become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare," Rhome said. Named storms historically develop close to the U.S. in July, especially in the Gulf and off the Atlantic coast between Florida and the Carolinas. Later in the season, tropical storms and hurricanes develop out of tropical waves moving off the coast of Africa. Elsewhere in the tropics, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring four tropical waves, including one in the Caribbean. A second wave in the Caribbean on July 2 has moved across Central America and is now in the eastern Pacific: Tropical wave 1: A tropical wave has an axis along 29W in the eastern Atlantic, from 16N southward, moving west at around 11 mph. Tropical wave 2: Another tropical wave is along 43W, south of 15N, moving westward at around 11 mph. Tropical wave 3: A third tropical wave is along 54W, south of 15N, moving westward at around 11 mph. Tropical wave 4: A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 75W, south of 18N, moving westward at near 17 mph. The wave is helping to induce some scattered moderate convection over and near Haiti. Florida weather forecast for July 3, 2025 Pensacola, western Panhandle: It is looking more likely that any impacts from a potential tropical system will remain well east of the area, according to the National Weather Service Mobile. High 93 and sunny July 3. Tallahassee, central Panhandle: "Our typical summer showers/storms will continue through the weekend," the National Weather Service Tallahassee said. High July 3 near 92 with 50% chance for showers and thunderstorms after 1p.m. Jacksonville, North/Northeast Florida: "Daily rounds of storms are expected through the weekend. This will elevate the flood risk for Northeast Florida, especially across north-central Florida, where amounts will be the greatest," the National Weather Service Jacksonville said. High July 3 90 with showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2 p.m. Daytona Beach to Stuart, East/Central Florida: Regardless of tropical development, high rain chances and the potential for locally heavy rainfall and minor flooding will persist through at least Saturday, the National Weather Service Melbourne said. Highs range from 87 in Daytona Beach to 86 in Stuart. West Palm Beach to Naples, South/Southwest Florida: Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms today may again result in localized flooding, especially over east coast metro areas. Expect another warm day with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to around 90, the National Weather Service Miami said. Highs range from 90 in West Palm Beach to 86 in Naples. Fort Myers to Sarasota, West/Southwest Florida: Showers and storms expected throughout the day. First near the coast in the morning, then shifting inland late, the National Weather Service Tampa Bay said. Highs today range from 84 in Fort Myers to 81 in Sarasota. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30. Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said. The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories. The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center. Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include: Tropical cyclone is the generic term used by the National Weather Service, NOAA and the National Hurricane Center for any tropical system, even if it's in the tropical Atlantic basin. To be more precise, a tropical cyclone is a "rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has closed, low-level circulation," NOAA sadi. Once maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph, what it is called is determined by where it originated: : for storms in the North Atlantic, central North Pacific, and eastern North Pacific. : for storms in the Northwest Pacific. : for storms in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean. We will update our tropical weather coverage daily. Download your local site's app to ensure you're always connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here. This story has been updated to include new information. This article originally appeared on Naples Daily News: NOAA tracking system off Florida showing potential for development
