National Hurricane Center increases odds of tropical development near Florida over July 4th weekend
Well, maybe not great news if rain over a holiday weekend isn't your thing.
An area near the U.S. coast is being monitored for slow tropical development in the coming days. The large area of interest is located a few hundred miles to the east of Florida's Space Coast, according to AccuWeather.
➤ Track all active storms
➤ Weather alerts via text: Sign up to get updates about current storms and weather events by location
The system has a 60% chance for development over the next seven days and 30% chance over the next 48 hours, as of the 2 p.m. advisory July 3.
The good news is that forecasts call for potential development to occur in the Atlantic, instead of in the Gulf, which could have sent the system over Florida.
Current forecasts call for the system of low pressure to develop near Florida or off the southeastern coast of the United States either on the Fourth of July or on July 5, , the National Hurricane Center said. It's then expected to drift north or northeast, away from Florida.
Regardless of development, the system could bring up to 6 inches of rain to some portions of Florida through the Fourth of July weekend, according to the National Weather Service.
The next named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season will be Chantal.
In the eastern Pacific, Flossie has weakened into a tropical storm as it moves away from Mexico.
Here's the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center as of 2 p.m. July 3:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop along a weakening frontal boundary near Florida or the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States on Friday or Saturday.
Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for some slow development, but a tropical or subtropical depression could form in this region over the weekend or early next week while the system drifts northward or northeastward.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible across portions of the southeast U.S.,particularly across the west-central Florida coast.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on the Fourth of July, if necessary.
Formation chance through 48 hours: low, near 30 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days: medium, 60 percent.
"Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible across portions of the southeast U.S., particularly across West-Central Florida," the Florida Department of Emergency Management said.
"Those heading to the beaches for the holiday weekend from northern Florida and the Alabama and Mississippi panhandles to the Carolinas are urged to monitor the forecast, as there may be rough surf and rip currents and perhaps gusty winds should a tropical depression or storm develop," said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert, adding, "We feel the development window is from around July 4 to early next week."
"From July 4 through early next week, conditions will favor rounds of drenching thunderstorms from parts of Florida to the coastal Carolinas, fueled by tropical moisture and lingering atmospheric instability," AccuWeather said.
The system of low pressure expected to develop over the holiday weekend is being squeezed between a high-pressure system moving east from the Ohio Valley and the Bermuda High over the central Atlantic, according to AccuWeather.
"Which high ends up exerting more influence may determine the track of the tropical area of interest, should it develop," DaSilva said.
"If the Bermuda high is stronger, it could push the tropical feature close to the U.S. coast and potentially shorten the development window.
"On the other hand, should the high building in from the Midwest be stronger, it could shunt the tropical feature more offshore over the Atlantic, where it might have more time to evolve and strengthen."
Flossie has weakened and is now a tropical storm with 60-mph winds, according to the National Hurricane Center at 2 a.m. MST.
Steady weakening is expected during the next day or so, with the system forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low later July 3.
Flossie is expected to move toward the west-northwest at 9 mph.
This forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
This forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
The hatched areas on the National Hurricane Center's tropical outlook map indicate "areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop," said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.
The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop, with yellow being low, orange medium, and red high.
The National Hurricane Center generally doesn't issue tropical advisories until there is a named storm, but there is an exception.
"If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won't wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn't become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare," Rhome said.
Named storms historically develop close to the U.S. in July, especially in the Gulf and off the Atlantic coast between Florida and the Carolinas.
Later in the season, tropical storms and hurricanes develop out of tropical waves moving off the coast of Africa.
Elsewhere in the tropics, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring four tropical waves, including one in the Caribbean. A second wave in the Caribbean on July 2 has moved across Central America and is now in the eastern Pacific:
Tropical wave 1: A tropical wave has an axis along 29W in the eastern Atlantic, from 16N southward, moving west at around 11 mph.
Tropical wave 2: Another tropical wave is along 43W, south of 15N, moving westward at around 11 mph.
Tropical wave 3: A third tropical wave is along 54W, south of 15N, moving westward at around 11 mph.
Tropical wave 4: A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 75W, south of 18N, moving westward at near 17 mph. The wave is helping to induce some scattered moderate convection over and near Haiti.
Florida weather forecast for July 3, 2025
Pensacola, western Panhandle: It is looking more likely that any impacts from a potential tropical system will remain well east of the area, according to the National Weather Service Mobile. High 93 and sunny July 3.
Tallahassee, central Panhandle: "Our typical summer showers/storms will continue through the weekend," the National Weather Service Tallahassee said. High July 3 near 92 with 50% chance for showers and thunderstorms after 1p.m.
Jacksonville, North/Northeast Florida: "Daily rounds of storms are expected through the weekend. This will elevate the flood risk for Northeast Florida, especially across north-central Florida, where amounts will be the greatest," the National Weather Service Jacksonville said. High July 3 90 with showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2 p.m.
Daytona Beach to Stuart, East/Central Florida: Regardless of tropical development, high rain chances and the potential for locally heavy rainfall and minor flooding will persist through at least Saturday, the National Weather Service Melbourne said. Highs range from 87 in Daytona Beach to 86 in Stuart.
West Palm Beach to Naples, South/Southwest Florida: Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms today may again result in localized flooding, especially over east coast metro areas. Expect another warm day with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to around 90, the National Weather Service Miami said. Highs range from 90 in West Palm Beach to 86 in Naples.
Fort Myers to Sarasota, West/Southwest Florida: Showers and storms expected throughout the day. First near the coast in the morning, then shifting inland late, the National Weather Service Tampa Bay said. Highs today range from 84 in Fort Myers to 81 in Sarasota.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories.
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Tropical cyclone is the generic term used by the National Weather Service, NOAA and the National Hurricane Center for any tropical system, even if it's in the tropical Atlantic basin.
To be more precise, a tropical cyclone is a "rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has closed, low-level circulation," NOAA sadi.
Once maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph, what it is called is determined by where it originated:
: for storms in the North Atlantic, central North Pacific, and eastern North Pacific.
: for storms in the Northwest Pacific.
: for storms in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean.
We will update our tropical weather coverage daily.
Download your local site's app to ensure you're always connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here.
This story has been updated to include new information.
This article originally appeared on Naples Daily News: NOAA tracking system off Florida showing potential for development
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Bloomberg
6 minutes ago
- Bloomberg
More Than 132 Million Face Wilting Heat Across Eastern US
More than 132 million people across the central and eastern US are facing blistering temperatures to start the week, with rising humidity making it feel even worse and putting a strain on the energy grid as air conditioners and fans get a workout. Heat advisories or excessive-heat warnings have been issued from Nebraska to Massachusetts and from North Dakota to Florida, covering all or part of 29 states and more than 38% of the US population, according to the National Weather Service. Sweltering conditions will peak today and Monday before gradually easing. The US Southeast will be the last to get some relief, later in the week or next.
Yahoo
14 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Hailstorm Leaves 40+ Mile Long Scar In North Dakota
We are used to bringing you pictures of earthly scars produced by tornadoes and wildfires, but did you know that hail damage can also leave behind a trail of destruction? That's what happened on July 10, 2025, in southwestern North Dakota. A strong thunderstorm swept eastward from near the Montana state line then passed just south of Dickinson before weakening north of Mott. As visualized by satellites in the days after the storms, the hail scar was measured to be around 42 miles long by the National Weather Service in Bismarck. The thunderstorm produced hail larger than chicken eggs near South Heart, South Dakota, where windows were broken. The storm also produced wind gusts over 50 mph and heavy rain. More windows were broken by wind-driven hail near the Montana border. This isn't the first time we've reported on a hail scar in the Dakotas. In 2018, much more potent hailstorms dropped stones as large as grapefruits in Wyoming and South Dakota and knocked down a cornfield. Those storms traveled several hundred miles. Most of the damage from these storms, both this year and in 2018, appears to have been to agriculture and forestry. "Over the past few years, according to industry sources, we've seen $8 billion to $10 billion in insured and agricultural losses annually from hail alone," Bryan Wood, meteorologist and operations analyst with Assurant, Inc., told in July 2017. The threat for significant hail peaks in late May in the southern Great Plains, but peaks later, in late June and early July, across the Dakotas. That's when the jet stream is in Canada and the hottest weather of the year persists across much of the country. Jonathan Belles has been a digital meteorologist for for 9 years and also assists in the production of videos for The Weather Channel en español. His favorite weather is tropical weather, but also enjoys covering high-impact weather and news stories and winter storms. He's a two-time graduate of Florida State University and a proud graduate of St. Petersburg College. Solve the daily Crossword
Newsweek
3 hours ago
- Newsweek
Millions Across 11 States Told To Stay out of Sun, Limit Activity
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. Millions of Americans across almost a dozen states were instructed to stay out of the sun and limit outdoor activities, as the National Weather Service (NWS) issued a sweeping series of extreme heat warnings and advisories amid dangerous temperatures. Dozens of cities in 11 states throughout the South, Midwest, and Southwest face dangerous heat, prompting health alerts and safety guidance for vulnerable communities. Why It Matters The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) warned that extreme heat is the deadliest weather phenomenon in the United States, causing more than 700 deaths annually. Vulnerable populations, including children, seniors, and people with chronic health conditions, face elevated risks of heat-related illness such as heat stroke and exhaustion. Rising temperatures also amplify ground-level ozone pollution, compounding risks for those with asthma or heart complaints. People drink water as they walk along the National Mall near the Washington Monument in Washington, D.C., on July 25, 2025, as a heat dome sits over the region leading to extremely high temperatures. People drink water as they walk along the National Mall near the Washington Monument in Washington, D.C., on July 25, 2025, as a heat dome sits over the region leading to extremely high temperatures. Getty Images What To Know According to the NWS Extreme Heat Warning map and recent reports, extreme heat warnings are in effect for 11 states—affecting hundreds of cities and millions of residents. The hardest-hit areas were parts of Iowa, southwest Minnesota, northeast Nebraska, and most of South Dakota. These regions are forecast to experience heat index values at or above 110 degrees Fahrenheit. In their statements on the heat warning, the NWS advised: "Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors." Officials reiterated not to leave children or pets unattended in vehicles, as car interiors can reach deadly temperatures within minutes. "For the Heat Advisory, warm and muggy conditions will continue early this morning. For the Extreme Heat Warning, dangerously hot conditions with heat index values 111 to 115 expected," the NWS said. Simultaneously, less severe heat advisories stretched across the South, Midwest, and Northeast—including Georgia and southeast South Carolina, where forecast heat index values routinely top 100 F. Cities across affected regions have opened cooling centers for residents without air conditioning, with officials encouraging people to stay indoors and avoid outdoor activities during peak heat hours. The exact temperature thresholds that trigger heat advisories vary geographically, but all current warnings indicate conditions that push the human body beyond normal heat tolerance limits. What People Are Saying The NWS in Phoenix, Arizona, said in a statement on Sunday: "Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay in the shade, and check up on relatives and neighbors. "Do not leave young children and pets in unattended vehicles. Car interiors will reach lethal temperatures in a matter of minutes. "Take extra precautions when outside. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing. Try to limit strenuous activities to early morning or evening. Take action when you see symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke." What Happens Next At the time of publication, the latest extreme heat warnings remain in effect until at least 9 p.m. CDT Thursday, with the NWS advising residents to stay informed as conditions may shift.
