Latest news with #JanHatzius
Yahoo
17-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Tariffs Are Weighing Heavily on the Industry, But Shoe Price Increases Have Been Minimal — So Far
Price increases are on the way. Expectations concerning higher costs form the tariff impact on many consumer discretionary items including apparel and shoes haven't yet gained substantial traction on the sales floor. More from WWD Tariffs at 30 Percent Would Be a Tipping Point for European Furniture- and Lighting-makers Kohl's Upping the Ante on Footwear During Critical Back-to-School Season Urban Outfitters Announces First Annual UO Haul Sale Targeting Gen Z Amid Back-to-school Season That not surprising, according to an Goldman Sachs report from July 8 headed by Jan Hatzius, chief economist and head of global investment research. He said the largest tariff hikes went into effect in early April and goods already shipped were exempt. Moreover, the 'front-loading of imports and uncertainty over whether tariffs would stick may have also helped to delay increases in consumer prices,' the report said. A separate Goldman report from July 11 led by economist Joseph Briggs said that tariff passthroughs to consumer prices so far seem more limited than in the 2018-2019 trade war when Trump was first in office. He noted that it might be too early to assess the full, adding that tariff payments can be delayed for up to 1.5 months and that any front-loading of imports likely delayed price increases. For now, consumers are still spending at retail. The U.S. Census Bureau on Thursday said retail sales for June rose 0.6 percent to $720.1 billion from May's revised $715.5 billion, which reflects a 0.9 percent dip. Total retail sales for April 2025 through June 2025 were up 4.1 percent versus the same year-ago period. U.S. President Donald Trump's broad global reciprocal tariff plan was disclosed on April 2. Data points from the report showed that apparel and accessories stores rose 0.9 percent in June to $26.34 billion, on an adjusted basis, which reflects season variation and holidays but not price changes. Sales at shoe stores were not available for June, but data indicates that sales rose 1.5 percent to $3.21 billion in May from $3.16 billion in April, on an adjusted basis. 'June consumer spending was solid, with retail sales ex auto and gas up 4.1 percent relative to last year, similar to the recent trend,' noted David Silverman, senior director at Fitch Ratings. 'Fitch continues to expect a sales moderation as the year progresses given the impact of somewhat moderating consumer health and reaction to the evolving tariff policy, despite the continued strength in recent months.' As for back-to-school product and promotions, Silverman noted: 'As expected, many of the largest retailers are targeting limited price inflation, as they manage their supply chain to offset the impact of tariffs and potentially absorb some of the increase to maintain pricing positions. Smaller retailers will be less able to mitigate and absorb tariffs, which could cause a widening price discrepancy over time.' Which Shoes Are More Expensive? A report from Telsey Advisory Group (TAG) tracked the prices of a cross section of apparel, shoes and home products since April, when reciprocal tariffs were first announced by Trump. In the July 8 report, a Sam Edelman Felicia ballet flat priced at $100 remained at the same price without change since April. That was also true of a Steve Madden Klayton Bootie, priced at $119.95, as well as a Vans Old Skool Shoe at $70. An Ugg Tazz II shoe saw a $5 increase, or 3.6 percent increase, to $145 from week ago prices, while a Hoka Bondi 9 sneaker also rose $5, or 2.9 percent, to $175. In other sneaker news, there was no price change for Adidas Samba OG, which has been $100 since April. There were week-over-week price changes for two On shoes. The Cloud 6 rose $10, or 6.7 percent, to $160, and the Cloudtilt was up $10, or 6.3 percent, to $170. The Nike Vomero 18 didn't see a week-over-week increase, but did have a price increase of $5, or 3.3 percent, to $155 at some point since April. That increase likely occurred on June 1, when Nike began raising prices on select items. Also holding steady since April was an Asics Gel-1130, priced at $100 at Foot Locker, as well as a New Balance 1960 sneaker at $150, also sold at Foot Locker. Those shoe increases appear minimal, when compared to some apparel spikes. Among the week-over-week price increases, a Victoria's Secret Pink fleece campus sweatpant rose $24.95, or 71.3 percent, to $59.95, while a Victoria's Secret Bombshell push-up bra was up $19.95, or 66.5 percent, to $49.95 and a Tommy Hilfiger men's regular fit stretch polo shirt saw a $5.26 increase, or 19.5 percent, to $32.25. The TAG check also noted that the Tommy Hilfiger polo shirt saw an earlier price increase sometime between April and July 8 of $2.26, or 7.5 percent. In addition, the $2,130.00 Louis Vuitton Neverfull MM bag didn't see a week-over-week price change in the July 8 report, but the price was raised by $100, or 4.9 percent, at some point between April and July 8. That was also true for a girls' Cat & Jack legging from Target, which didn't see a week-over-week change, but did see a price uptick of $1.50, or 33.3 percent, to $6 over the same four-month period. And while some apparel items saw a price change — such as an Adidas Firebird Loose track pant, down $15 week-over-week, or 20 percent, to $60, and a Calvin Klein men's cotton stretch 3-pack briefs, down $9.50, or 20 percent, to $38 at some point since TAG began keeping an eye on pricing in April — that wasn't true of any of the footwear products on the research firm's tracking list. The Road Ahead Price points thus far are likely to shift upwards going forward. And once that occurs on a broad range of everyday goods, that's when consumer fatigue is expected to set in, according to consumer experts from financial advisory firm EY. 'While the June retail sales data is encouraging and points to modest upside risk to our consumer spending growth estimate of 1.5 percent annualized in Q2, consumers have yet to experience the full impact of price increases,' said EY-Parthenon senior economist Lydia Boussour. She expects that continued tariff and policy volatility, coupled with a slowing labor market and rising inflation, will result in the easing of consumers' personal consumption expenditures from '2.8 percent in 2024 to 1.9 percent in 2025, and 1.4 percent in 2026.' 'June's numbers show how consumers are prioritizing online retailers and apparel, but the remainder of the summer and back-to-school season could prove more fragile than expected,' EY Americas retail sector leader Mark Chambers said. 'Retailers are weathering the storm when it comes to inventory management and supply chain flexibility with tariffs, but the latest numbers indicate they are so far managing price expectations and still delivering what consumers are looking for.' Crocs CEO Andrew Rees in May told investors at the firm's first quarter earnings conference call that the company expects the shoe 'industry to go up in terms of price' due to added costs, whether from tariffs or other factors. He also noted that the company has been 'super strategic' on pricing, with some 'very targeted price increases' to mitigate selective issues. But Rees also said that Crocs was in a 'wait-and-see mode,' waiting to see what happens with tariff rates, among other factors, to determine how to manage future pricing. And Steven Madden Ltd. CEO Edward Rosenfeld said in his first quarter earnings conference call that the shoe firm has been 'moving swiftly to adapt to the changing landscape,' including a focus on mitigating near-term impacts of tariff. Tools at its disposal included a shift in where some shoes are produced, as well as 'selectively' raising prices to both consumers and wholesale customers for fall items. Best of WWD All the Retailers That Nike Left and Then Went Back Mikey Madison's Elegant Red Carpet Shoe Style [PHOTOS] Julia Fox's Sleekest and Boldest Shoe Looks Over the Years [Photos] Se produjo un error al recuperar la información Inicia sesión para acceder a tu portafolio Se produjo un error al recuperar la información Se produjo un error al recuperar la información Se produjo un error al recuperar la información Se produjo un error al recuperar la información
Time of India
15-07-2025
- Business
- Time of India
College graduates are losing their job market edge, says report: Here's what students need to be prepared for
For generations, a college diploma was more than a piece of parchment; it was a cultural contract, a promise that the debt, late nights, and sacrifice would pay off in the form of economic stability and professional ascendancy. But that long-standing pact is quietly fracturing. New analysis from Goldman Sachs draws a stark conclusion: the traditional labor market edge once held by college graduates is rapidly eroding, slipping to historic lows just as the broader job market appears deceptively robust. In other words, the college degree, once America's most prized employment currency, is beginning to lose its purchasing power. The safety premium, shrinking before our eyes The term 'safety premium' has long captured the perceived job-market cushion that college graduates enjoyed over their non-degree-holding peers. But Goldman's economists, led by chief analyst Jan Hatzius, reveal that this advantage is evaporating. In May 2025, native-born college grads aged 22–27 faced an unemployment rate of 3.8%, up from the usual 3.3% seen during full employment phases. Meanwhile, the safety premium—the statistical buffer that once underscored the value of higher education- has dwindled to just 2.8 percentage points. That's the narrowest margin in decades, down from a historical average of 4.1 points in favourable markets. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Get ₹2Cr life cover@ ₹700 p.m. ICICI Pru Life Insurance Plan Get Quote Undo This isn't just a numerical shift. It's a symbolic one. The college degree is no longer a shield against economic uncertainty; it's becoming merely a baseline, often indistinguishable from alternatives in a hyper-fluid job market. A faster slide than anyone expected More unsettling than the narrowing unemployment gap is the dramatic drop in job-finding rates among recent grads. In 2025, the advantage that college-educated young adults held in securing employment over their non-degree counterparts shrank to a wafer-thin 0.9 percentage points. Contrast that with a commanding 8.3-point lead in prior decades, and the trend becomes clear: the hiring premium of a degree has collapsed. This shift is not just a post-pandemic fluke. It reveals a deeper reconfiguration of the American labor market. While low-skill sectors such as manufacturing, construction, and retail are roaring back, traditional graduate-heavy sectors, like information services, finance, and consulting- are stalling. For today's college graduates, the conveyor belt from lecture hall to office cubicle is slowing, if not seizing altogether. A tale of two labour forces If the story ended there, it might be concerning enough. But dig deeper, and the labour force participation trends paint an even more fragmented picture. Since 1997, young people without degrees have been quietly vanishing from the labor force, their participation rate plummeting by seven percentage points. Among degree-holders, the decline is a modest two points. On the surface, this may suggest that college grads are more resilient. But the reality is far murkier. A growing number of non-graduates are disappearing not into education or training, but into a grim limbo of 'unable to work', a category that excludes disability, illness, or caregiving. It hints at something more corrosive: Disillusionment. This silent exit from the labour pool might explain why unemployment figures among non-grads are improving, not because they are working more, but because they've stopped trying altogether. A reckoning in the making The implications of these shifts are far-reaching. Higher education, long sold as the ultimate safeguard against economic precarity, is now teetering on the edge of diminished relevance, at least in the way we've traditionally measured it. If the promise of better jobs and upward mobility is no longer reliably delivered by a four-year degree, then what justifies the ever-rising cost of college tuition? What happens when the ROI becomes too low to ignore? This is not merely a generational inconvenience; it's a social recalibration in real time. Parents, students, and policymakers alike must now grapple with a profound question: If college is no longer a guaranteed on-ramp to the middle class, what replaces it? And who gets left behind in the transition? Reimagining the value of learning None of this is to say that education has lost its intrinsic worth. The world still needs thinkers, researchers, and problem-solvers. But the days when a degree could effortlessly unlock stable careers are behind us. The labour market no longer rewards credentials; it demands adaptability, real-world skills, and a nimbleness that traditional academic paths are struggling to keep up with. The future may still belong to the educated, but only if education itself evolves. Ready to navigate global policies? Secure your overseas future. Get expert guidance now!
CNBC
03-07-2025
- Business
- CNBC
Goldman Sachs' Jan Hatzius: Jobs headline numbers overstate strength of report
Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs global chief economist, joins CNBC's 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss outlooks on the latest jobs report, macro expectations, and more.
Yahoo
02-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Goldman Sachs now sees the next Fed rate cut coming months earlier
Goldman Sachs now expects the Federal Reserve to enact its next interest-rate cut in September — and not December, as previously thought — as tariffs have a lesser inflationary impact than earlier feared. In a note released Monday, Goldman economist Jan Hatzius and team said they do not expect the Fed to lower official borrowing costs this month, unless Thursday's nonfarm-payrolls report is weaker than expected. They now see three 25-basis-point cuts in September, October and December. My wife and I have $7,000 a month in pensions and Social Security, plus $140,000 cash. Can we afford to retire? 'Finance makes me break out in hives': I inherited $240K from my parents. Do I pay off my $258K mortgage and give up my job? I'm a stay-at-home mom. Do I take a part-time job to spend more time with my kids — or get a job for six figures? The last holdout bears are Democrats, these strategists say. Their capitulation could fuel the next leg higher for stocks. This income fund pays more than a bank account while keeping price volatility low That would take the Fed funds rate to a range of 3.50% to 3.75%. Goldman expects another two 25-basis-point reductions in 2026, taking the Fed's terminal rate — or the rate at which this cycle of cutting ends — to 3% to 3.25%. The Wall Street bank had forecast a terminal rate of 3.5% to 3.75%. The main reason Hatzius and his team are bringing forward the rate-cut forecast to September is that they now believe the Trump tariff strategy may not have a large, lasting impact on consumer-price inflation. 'We had previously expected a cut in December because we thought that the peak summer tariff effects on monthly inflation would make it awkward to cut sooner,' they said. 'But the very early evidence suggests that the tariff effects look a bit smaller than we expected, other disinflationary forces have been stronger, and we suspect that the Fed leadership shares our view that tariffs will only have a one-time price level effect,' they added. Hatzius and his team also noted that recent comments from some Fed officials suggest they could support a cut at the September meeting if upcoming inflation prints are not too high. Recent comments from Fed governor Michelle Bowman 'also suggest that some FOMC participants might not be that bothered if upcoming inflation reports are a bit firmer, so long as this is visibly driven by tariff effects,' Goldman said. Surveys showing falling inflation expectations among households are also making it easier for the Fed to cut rates as signs emerge of a weakening labor market, according to Goldman. 'While Fed officials have tried to set a higher bar for cutting than in 2019, any scare in an upcoming employment report could make cutting sooner the path of least resistance again,' the bank said. The dollar index fell DXY to a fresh three-year low on Tuesday as traders increased bets on Fed rate cuts. The 2-year Treasury yield BX:TMUBMUSD02Y, which is particularly sensitive to monetary policy, dipped to 3.709%, near its lowest level in two months. The move by Goldman comes as Fed Chair Jerome Powell faced further haranguing by President Donald Trump, who argued that the central bank should cut interest rates to as low as 1%. 'I do all the yard work, cooking and cleaning': I live with my daughter and her lazy boyfriend. She wants me to buy her house. Do I say yes? 'I'm single': At 70, I have $500,000 in stocks and $220,000 in savings. How do I invest my $130,000 windfall? A sputtering jobs market is now a top risk for stocks and bonds in the second half of 2025 My mother, 89, keeps getting her credit card scammed. She gets a new one — and it happens again. What's going on? Why out-of-favor Apple holds the key to tech stocks in the coming weeks
Yahoo
24-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Here's how Wall Street sees the Israel-Iran conflict affecting recession odds
The Israel-Iran conflict raises concerns over a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Goldman Sachs and other banks warn of recession risks if global oil supply is disrupted. Higher oil prices would impact global economic growth and inflation. Recession risks have come down significantly from their peak in April after Donald Trump's tariff announcements, but the Israel-Iran conflict has ignited fresh concerns about the path of global economic growth. After US airstrikes on Iran's nuclear facilities over the weekend, markets are worried about Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important oil-shipping chokepoints. Over the weekend, the odds of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz spiked to over 50% on Polymarket. The risk of further military escalation is a major reason Goldman Sachs said that it hasn't cut its recession probability, which hovers at 30%. With roughly 20% of the world's oil passing through the strait, a closure would bottleneck oil supply and send oil prices, and subsequently inflation, higher. At current levels around $73 a barrel of US oil and $76 a barrel for Brent, crude oil prices have increased around $10 per barrel since early June, which wouldn't be enough to pose a big threat to inflation and GDP growth, Jan Hatzius, the bank's chief economist, wrote in a note over the weekend. However, he sees the possibility of a much larger price move "in a tail scenario where the conflict expands significantly further and/or the Strait of Hormuz is closed. In that tail scenario, the risk of recession would climb sharply." In a worst-case scenario, oil volumes through the Strait of Hormuz could decrease by 50% for one month, then remain down 10% for another 11 months, Goldman Sachs commodities analysts predicted. That would lead Brent oil prices to peak at $110 per barrel before coming down to $95 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025. While Goldman Sachs' base case assumes Brent oil prices fall to $60 by year-end and deliver a modest boost to GDP growth, disruption in the energy supply could reduce global growth by 0.3 percentage points and send inflation rising by 0.7 percentage points. With regards to markets, Morgan Stanley also sees rising oil prices as a potential negative catalyst that sparks a potential 19% drop in the S&P 500. According to Mike Wilson, the bank's chief investment officer and chief equity strategist, a 75% year-over-year rise in oil prices has historically been disruptive enough to impact the business cycle and lead to a recession. Some forecasters see the potential for an even higher spike in crude prices. A 75% increase in oil prices isn't off the table, JPMorgan said. Commodities analysts at the bank see a 21% chance of a major disruption to energy production in the Persian Gulf, which could cause oil prices to rise to $120-$130 a barrel. However, such a scenario is not the bank's base case. JPMorgan sees crude oil averaging down to around $60 a barrel by the end of the year and into 2026, barring severe geopolitical escalation. Morgan Stanley's Commodities Strategist Martijn Rats believes a 75% spike in oil prices would only emerge as a result of prolonged supply disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. "Thus, while we're respectful of the risks, there's a long way to go on this basis," Wilson wrote. Read the original article on Business Insider Sign in to access your portfolio
