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Newsweek
6 days ago
- Business
- Newsweek
Gen Zers Convinced They Can Predict a Recession—It's Not Going Well
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. We have been long advised not to believe everything that we see online, but when creators start citing Gwyneth Paltrow's carb cravings or the rise of Pilates chic as signs of a looming financial crash, the question becomes unavoidable: do any of these so-called "recession indicators" hold real validity? Across TikTok, Instagram and YouTube, Gen Zers and younger millennials have been spotlighting the curious return of several late 2000s' and early 2010s' cultural motifs—some subtle, others screamingly obvious. Platinum blonde hair with visible dark roots; the reemergence of "recession pop" music; the rising popularity of "skinny chic," not long ago dubbed problematic: the list goes on, including, unmanicured nails, mustache-embossed crockery and even the rerelease of Coca-Cola's "Share a Coke" campaign. The implication? A return to recession-era culture suggests a return to recession itself. Some of these social media-driven indicators are grounded in economic behaviors we have seen before—people cutting spending and dressing to appeal to those in positions of power. But others are, at best, psychological signposts and, at worst, internet inside-jokes. "Pop culture 'recession indicators' are entertaining—but they are not economic science," Louis Carter, founder and CEO of Best Practice Institute, told Newsweek. "These trends are reflections of mood, and lack of human logic—not causes of market movement." In conversations with Newsweek, content creators, analysts, and economists unpacked the cultural, financial, and political narratives behind several trending indicators—and whether anything can actually be predicted from them. 'Recession Blonde' Leah Holm, a marketing manager and influencer known as @ladyleahmarie, recently gained viral attention for her breakdown of "recession blonde"—a style featuring platinum blonde hair with grown-out roots, seen in the late 2000s and very early 2010s and making a comeback today. "This trend was the direct result of the economical state of the world at the time," Holm said in a TikTok video. "Prices went up, people had less money … The girls who would previously get their roots touched up every 4 to 6 weeks didn't have money to do so, so they let them grow out, and this became a trend." Holm told Newsweek that fashion reflects cultural and economic conditions—and, right now, we are in what she calls a "recession-core" moment. "Fashion has always mirrored the times we are living in—economically, politically, and emotionally," Holm said. "We are seeing a shift toward timeless, minimalist styles in response to inflation, job insecurity, and global uncertainty. "Think muted colors, clean silhouettes, and an emphasis on quality over quantity." Holm has spotted a marked rise in aesthetics labeled "old money" or "quiet luxury," alongside emerging consumer trends such as "capsule wardrobes," and creators engaging in "low-buy years" or "underconsumption"—all of which are geared toward people spending less. 'Recession Pop' For Texas-based content creator Xavier Wilson (@ 27, the rise of "recession" talk online is less about market indicators and more about cultural anxiety playing out on loop. His videos focus on class divides and the social-mobility traps that Gen Z face. "I think the idea of a recession online has become an anxious long-running joke and trend," Wilson told Newsweek. "TikTok rose to popularity during the pandemic, when recession fears were high and they never really went away. "That created an ongoing wave of trends that anyone could participate in, everyone can relate to, and that sparks enough conversation to stay active in the algorithm." Wilson, who was featured in a Gen Z report presented at the 2023 World Economic Forum, said that, for younger generations, the recession is more cultural than fiscal. It is gamified, meme-ified and shared endlessly—but also rooted in real anxiety. "While our parents have experienced recessions, it is not 'real' for Gen Z in the same way," Wilson said. "It is a bit of a game—'Is this indicator a real one?' Will this finally bring the recession we've been talking about for years?" Online, "recession pop" has become a nostalgic shorthand for the glossy, synth-heavy hits of the late 2000s and early 2010s—think Kesha, early Katy Perry, and The Black Eyed Peas—resurfacing across playlists and TikTok montages. The sound evokes a time when escapism ruled the charts, and its return feels eerily timely to some. Ozempic, Pilates, and Conservative Lifestyles On Instagram, MaryBeth Monaco-Vavrik (@ ignited discussion with her viral video exploring the connections between fitness aesthetics, cultural shifts and what that can suggest about the economy. "There is a strong pattern of fitness ideals shifting based on political and cultural values," Monaco-Vavrik, a certified barre instructor based in Washington, D.C., told Newsweek. "Pilates aligns with the 'clean girl' aesthetic and broader conservative shift we are seeing." From left: A screenshot of Nicole Richie sporting "recession blonde" hair from a TikTok video by @ladyleahmarie; and a stock image of a road sign reading "recession ahead." From left: A screenshot of Nicole Richie sporting "recession blonde" hair from a TikTok video by @ladyleahmarie; and a stock image of a road sign reading "recession ahead." @ladyleahmarie / Getty Images The Ozempic craze and resurgence of ultra-thinness are part of that same ideological fabric. "The sanitized, exclusionary aesthetic of Pilates reflects certain values: control, conformity, proximity to whiteness and wealth," the 24-year-old added. The Hemline Index Coca-Cola's revival of its "Share a Coke" campaign and the popularity of late 2000s and early 2010s fashion staples—large handbags, indie sleaze styling, heels and peplum detailing—have all been flagged online as evidence of a looming economic downturn. One creator, @ shared in a TikTok video that they had used data to dissect which trends are actually indicative of a looming recession. They concluded that mini skirts were the "most confident predictor of consumer confidence in the economy," later elaborating that the garments becoming trendier suggests that consumer confidence in the economy has dropped. The idea that skirt length can be representative of economic change is called the hemline index. The creator added that indie sleaze styling, big bags, maxi skirts and blazers becoming trendier is also indicative of a looming recession, among other talked-about nods to the economy like lipstick theory. @ These are just the recession indicators that I have been hearing about a lot — but please let me know if you have any other indicators that you would like to test. A bit more on the analysis: I didn't want to just report on some growth metrics (I saw a financial advice account report that maxi skirts were trending in the google data this past month which means we are going into a recession. Like, it's spring, so ofc they are?), or run a bunch of regressions between consumer confidence in the economy (CCI) and a single search term for each recession indicator. So! I used structural equation modelling, which allows me to combine multiple items and search terms into a single variable. For example, I have included the volume of people looking for hobo bags, oversized bags, tote bags, balenciaga city bags, louis vuitton neverful, etc., within my 'big bag theory' variable. And for indie sleaze, I have a bunch of trends associated with it within its latent variable, such as: cheetah, leopard, fur, skinny jeans, disco pants, etc. When you are building this model, you have to ensure that al of these variables are trending together and not just making a big mess. Here, you have to take time to evaluate the the model fit and factor loadings for each item before it could be included in the latent variable and therefore in the regression. Hope that makes sense! Might do a post or another video explaining all of this in-depth! Might include the R code if someone is interested… ? In the end, mini skirts and blazers had a strong negative relationship with CCI — suggesting that interest in these items can be signals that the economy is doing poorly. Big bags, lipstick, maxi skirts, and indie sleaze had a moderate negative relationship, and then peplums and high heels had no relationship. I know someone in the comments will say that my R2 values are way too low — and I totally thought the same thing. However, after looking at expected R2 values for cultural data and real world signals versus experimental data — these values are pretty good. (Feel free to argue with me tho, I'm not an expert.) (Oh and this is just US data btw.) ♬ original sound - Style Analytics Destiny Chatman, a consumer expert at is not certain things are quite so simple. "Things that were popular in the 2010s coming back in 2025 do signal that we are headed toward a recession because 2007 to 2009 was the last Great Recession in America," she said. "However, everything old does become new again, and people should take these 'recession indicators' with a grain of salt." Kristen Smirnov, a professor at Whittier College, emphasized the cyclical nature of aesthetics. "Pop culture and fashion trends are naturally cyclical," Smirnov told Newsweek. "Part of how we signal social capital is by showing we are in tune with what is current, and 'what is current' often swings away from whatever came just before." Possibly the most-mocked "indicator" of all has been actress and wellness mogul Gwyneth Paltrow announcing she will start eating carbs again—an abrupt dietary change for someone long associated with extreme wellness trends. Online, it was quickly labeled a "recession-coded" move, but Hila Harary, a trend forecaster at Tectonic Shift, sees it differently. "Gwyneth Paltrow's diet is not being revived—it is being rejected," Harary told Newsweek. "People are choosing joy over control … To enjoy the pasta, not obsess over celery juice." Harary noted that this cultural nostalgia for a rose-tinted past is often mistaken for economic nostalgia. "Nostalgia shows up elsewhere—in the resurgence of the early 2010s trends, for example," she added. "But that is about emotional security. "When the present feels unstable, people gravitate toward eras that felt simpler, it is comfort, not forecasting." Harary pointed to broader movements such as "Back to the Roots," encompassing gardening, sustainability, and natural beauty. "Yes, economic pressure can amplify these shifts, but the root cause is values, not just cost," she said. "The 'trad wife' trend fits here, too—a return to traditional, more conservative ways of living. "It is not caused by a recession, but it can have recession-like effects on household economics." Financial experts agreed that the meme economy and actual economy have little overlap. "Cultural clues are fun to watch, but real financial strategy relies on indicators like the inverted yield curve, jobless claims and earnings data," Steven Rogé, chief investment officer of R.W. Rogé & Company, Inc., told Newsweek. "These meme-worthy signals reflect consumer concerns, not economic truth, and even amplify anxiety, potentially influencing real spending." Certified financial planner Prudence Zhu agreed that trends like diet shifts and aesthetic preferences offer us an insight into consumer psychology—but not economics. "They are more of a lighthearted way for people to engage with economic discussions rather than reliable recession indicators," Zhu told Newsweek. "It is important to focus on economic data such as GDP growth, unemployment, and inflation." While the indicators may be satirical, the anxiety behind them appears to be real. The latest Bank of Montreal (BMO) Real Financial Progress Index revealed that 67 percent of Americans say their concerns about a recession have increased, with Gen Z concern jumping 18 points in one month; 65 percent of millennials also reported an increased economic concern. But experts say that what we are seeing online is less an indication of recession and more a cultural mood board drawn from collective uncertainty. "These trends aren't forecasting a recession," Harary said. "They reflect how we are processing instability."
Yahoo
13-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
KO Q1 Earnings Call: Coca-Cola Delivers Flat Sales, Highlights Margin Gains and Local Strategies
Beverage company Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) reported Q1 CY2025 results exceeding the market's revenue expectations , but sales were flat year on year at $11.22 billion. Its non-GAAP profit of $0.73 per share was 1.4% above analysts' consensus estimates. Is now the time to buy KO? Find out in our full research report (it's free). Revenue: $11.22 billion vs analyst estimates of $11.15 billion (flat year on year, 0.6% beat) Adjusted EPS: $0.73 vs analyst estimates of $0.72 (1.4% beat) Adjusted EBITDA: $4.05 billion vs analyst estimates of $4.06 billion (36.1% margin, in line) Operating Margin: 32.6%, up from 19.1% in the same quarter last year Free Cash Flow was -$5.51 billion, down from $158 million in the same quarter last year Organic Revenue rose 6% year on year (11% in the same quarter last year) Sales Volumes rose 2% year on year (1% in the same quarter last year) Market Capitalization: $299.3 billion Coca-Cola's first quarter results were shaped by region-specific demand shifts, ongoing margin expansion, and targeted investments in brand relevance. CEO James Quincey pointed to volume growth across global beverage categories, but acknowledged challenges in North America and Mexico, particularly among Hispanic consumers, where weaker sentiment and a misleading viral video weighed on flagship brand performance. The company emphasized agility in responding to market-specific headwinds, with bright spots in products like Coca-Cola Zero Sugar and Fairlife. Looking ahead, management reiterated its confidence in the company's strategy as it navigates uneven consumer trends and macroeconomic uncertainty. The outlook is supported by Coca-Cola's focus on affordability, local production, and continued innovation, including the return of the Share a Coke campaign and expansion in functional beverages. CFO John Murphy noted, "We are being prudent to not get flow through" on currency guidance and remain committed to long-term growth targets, while preparing for potentially choppy conditions in coming quarters. Coca-Cola's management attributed the quarter's results to a mix of geographic and product-specific dynamics, with particular attention to regional consumer sentiment and brand performance outside core markets. Deviation from consensus expectations came mainly from stronger-than-expected operating margin expansion, driven by cost management, and continued focus on local execution rather than headline growth rates. North America softness: The company cited weakening consumer sentiment, especially among Hispanic consumers, and the impact of a false viral video affecting Coca-Cola Original sales in Southern states. Management responded by increasing focus on affordability options and tailored promotions. Mexico volume pressures: Softer performance in Mexico was attributed to cycling strong growth in the prior year, calendar shifts, and macro uncertainty following local elections. The company launched the Hecho en Mexico campaign and emphasized value packaging to regain momentum. Asia-Pacific and India growth: Volume gains in Asia-Pacific were led by strong execution in India and a recovery in China, where marketing activations during Lunar New Year and portfolio rationalization helped drive demand. Fairlife's continued expansion: Fairlife remained the leading contributor to retail dollar growth in the beverage industry. Management expects growth to moderate as the brand's size increases, with new production capacity scheduled to come online later in the year. Margin improvement levers: Operating margin expansion was supported by productivity initiatives, bottler refranchising, and targeted cost management. Management noted some timing benefits in the quarter but reiterated a focus on sustainable long-term margin gains. Management expects the next quarter and the full year to be influenced by local consumer dynamics, continued marketing investment, and the company's ability to adapt to external volatility, such as shifting trade policies and currency fluctuations. Affordability and local relevance: Coca-Cola is prioritizing affordable product packages and emphasizing the local production of global brands to build resilience and maintain relevance amid economic and geopolitical uncertainties. Innovation and marketing: The return of the Share a Coke campaign and expansion into functional beverages, like prebiotic sodas, are expected to drive consumer engagement, particularly among younger demographics. Productivity and margin focus: Management believes ongoing cost optimization and supply chain enhancements will help offset external pressures, supporting long-term operating margin targets even as revenue growth moderates in certain regions. Dara Mohsenian (Morgan Stanley): Asked about maintaining guidance despite a strong quarter, with management citing prudence due to early-year uncertainties and anticipated tougher comparisons ahead. Bryan Spillane (Bank of America): Probed on Mexico's soft performance; CEO James Quincey highlighted macro uncertainty, calendar shifts, and the company's focus on affordability and local campaigns to restore growth. Lauren Lieberman (Barclays): Questioned responses to anti-brand sentiment in the U.S.; Quincey explained efforts to reinforce local economic impact and regain affected consumer demographics. Chris Carey (Wells Fargo): Sought clarity on sustainability of margin gains; CFO John Murphy pointed to timing benefits this quarter but expressed confidence in long-term productivity levers and investment in growth. Robert Ottenstein (Evercore): Inquired about Fairlife's growth trajectory and capacity expansion; Quincey detailed plans for new production capabilities and maintained that long-term opportunity remains substantial as the brand scales. In the coming quarters, the StockStory team will be monitoring (1) Coca-Cola's success in regaining volume momentum in North America and Mexico through targeted marketing and affordability initiatives, (2) the impact of capacity expansion on Fairlife's growth rate and category share, and (3) the effectiveness of the Share a Coke campaign and new functional beverage launches in attracting younger consumers. We will also track the company's ability to sustain margin improvements amidst potential trade and currency headwinds. Coca-Cola currently trades at a forward P/E ratio of 23.1×. In the wake of earnings, is it a buy or sell? See for yourself in our free research report. The market surged in 2024 and reached record highs after Donald Trump's presidential victory in November, but questions about new economic policies are adding much uncertainty for 2025. While the crowd speculates what might happen next, we're homing in on the companies that can succeed regardless of the political or macroeconomic environment. Put yourself in the driver's seat and build a durable portfolio by checking out our Top 6 Stocks for this week. This is a curated list of our High Quality stocks that have generated a market-beating return of 176% over the last five years. Stocks that made our list in 2020 include now familiar names such as Nvidia (+1,545% between March 2020 and March 2025) as well as under-the-radar businesses like the once-small-cap company Comfort Systems (+782% five-year return). Find your next big winner with StockStory today. Sign in to access your portfolio
New York Post
05-05-2025
- Entertainment
- New York Post
Gen Z daters hate pet names like ‘hun' and ‘darling' — but what they prefer is weird
Later, 'babe.' Gen Z is ditching traditional nicknames for their significant others, per new data on the youngest daters. 'Forget 'darling' and 'sweetie,'' wrote researchers for Coca-Cola. 'Gen Z [is] ditching outdated pet names for personalized nicknames that reflect who they are and their friendships.' 5 Gen Zers are abandoning old nicknames like 'Darling' and 'Love' and using slang terms such as 'Squad' and 'Shawty' to refer to their partners. Getty Images Those tried-and-true sweet nothings mean nothing to the Z-crew. It's a terrifying truth unearthed via Coca-Cola's freshly resurrected 'Share a Coke' campaign. Tugging at the nostalgic heartstrings of 20-somethings worldwide, the soft drink imprint has recently reignited the flames of its buzzy 2010s ad blitz. 5 Researchers for Coca-Cola unveiled Gen Z's disdain for popular pet names amid the recent relaunch of the brand's ever-popular 'Share a Coke' campaign. Jeff B/ – The marketing movement, featuring soda cans and bottles tagged with popular first names, is meant to encourage customers to connect with loved ones by gifting them the personalized keepsake. To further appeal to Gen Z audiences, consumers born between 1997 and 2012, the pop peddlers are now rolling out a line of Coke containers inked with their most cherished nicknames. Fizz fiends of the UK will even have the chance to create customized cans with names of their choice to share with a main squeeze, beginning on May 15. But, cartons with cutesy monikers such as 'snookums' won't be in mass supply. 5 Younger folks feel more love and acceptance when referred to by their nicknames. Getty Images/iStockphoto In fact, according to Coca-Cola's findings, 37% of Gen Zers feel the formerly heartwarming handle is one of the most 'old-fashioned' and 'outdated' pet names on the planet. Terms of endearment like 'chick,' 'sugar,' 'old man,' 'hon,' 'muffin' and 'bubba' have, too, been deemed déclassé by the judgy demographic. The cool kiddos are, instead, using newfangled vocabulary to express their feelings of fondness. A staggering 53% of Zoomers favor the pet name 'bro,' while 44% take a shine to 'mate' and 35% like 'bestie.' Joining the newly en vogue nicknames are 'friend,' 'bae,' 'queen,' 'king,' 'squad,' 'shawty,' 'sugar plum' and 'day one.' Gen Z's obsession with ditching the classics for street slang isn't an act of rebellion. Instead, it's a demonstration of love. 5 Butt notes that most nicknames are birthed out of inside jokes and special moments between friends, making them sacred to sentimental Gen Zers. Getty Images 'Nicknames play a crucial part in Gen Z friendships, with 42% admitting that they feel happy and loved when they are called by their nickname,' the study authors said. 'One in five (20%) say it makes them feel an important part of their friendship group, while one in ten (12%) admit that it makes them feel secure.' Charlotte Butt, Senior Marketing Manager from Coca‑Cola Trademark, said, 'Nicknames are more than just labels; they're a shorthand for shared history, inside jokes and personal connections' in a statement. 'They reflect the unique relationships between individuals and the evolution of language within friendship groups.' 'We're excited to bring back this campaign with new nicknames, allowing people to express their unique relationships and celebrate the people who matter most,' added Butt. 'We were inspired by how Gen Z uses nicknames to build stronger bonds, and we wanted to offer a fun, tangible way to express those connections.' 5 While sweet sayings such as 'hon' and 'angel' are out, according to Gen Z, loving terms like 'squad' and 'shawty' are all the rage. Getty Images Here's a list of the dated pet names that Gen Z daters are putting out to pasture. 1. Treacle (38%) 2. Chick (35%) 3. Sugar (31%) 4. Hon (29%) 5. Muffin (28%) 6. Bubba (28%) 7. Duck (27%) 8. Pet (22%) 9. Babe (21%) 8. Darling (21%) 9. Angel (14%) 10. Love (13%)
Daily Mail
05-05-2025
- Entertainment
- Daily Mail
Gen Z shun 'patronising' pet names like 'darling' and 'love' - is YOUR favourite on the list?
Traditional pet names such as 'darling' and 'love' have been slammed by Gen Z as patronising and even insulting, according to new research. Dismissing the terms of endearment as outdated, up to 38 per cent of youngsters named 'treacle' the most annoying nickname, closely followed by 'chick', 'sugar' and 'hon'. In new findings undertaken by soft drink manufacturer Coca-Cola, almost a third (28 per cent) said they would never use the terms 'muffin' or 'bubba', while up to 25 per cent were critical of the term 'duck'. Meanwhile, other much-loved traditional pet names such as 'darling' and 'love' were also deemed to be the most patronising by a respective 21 per cent and 13 per cent of the surveyed under-30s. Instead, Gen Z are opting for more 'modern terms of affection', with their new vocabulary including unique terms such as 'bro' (favoured by 53 per cent), 'mate' (44 per cent), and 'bestie' (at 35 per cent). Others that rank in the top 20 Gen-Z nickname list include 'queen', 'day one', 'bae' and 'squad'. Alongside being highly critical of the old-fashioned nature of traditional pet names, the research revealed that up to 20 per cent of Gen Z believe that having an individual nickname, rather than being described by a generic pet name, allows them to feel more valued within their friendship group. Likewise, one in ten (12 per cent) of the under-30s also admitted that being given a nickname allows them to feel more secure. Up to 15 per cent indicated that they had been called their pet names in front of their boss, with 93 per cent of young Brits stating that they deem nicknames to be a unique way of showing affection. The findings come as Coca-Cola are set to relaunch their 'Share a Coke' campaign, allowing customers to create a can with any name of their choice from May 15. However, in a unique twist, for the first time Brits will now be able to select a can personalised with a range of Gen Z-friendly nicknames and phrases such as 'My Bestie', 'My Bae', 'My Mate', 'My Fam' and 'My Day One'. Reflecting on the changing nature of nicknames amongst Gen Z, Charlotte Butt, Senior Marketing Manager at Coca Cola, said: 'Nicknames reflect the unique relationships between individuals and the evolution of language within friendship groups.'
Scottish Sun
01-05-2025
- Entertainment
- Scottish Sun
‘Legendary' Coca-Cola bottles back in UK shops from TODAY – 12 years after being discontinued
Plus, customers will be able to scan a QR code to get more options BOTTLE BACK 'Legendary' Coca-Cola bottles back in UK shops from TODAY – 12 years after being discontinued Click to share on X/Twitter (Opens in new window) Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window) A PARTICULAR kind of "legendary" Coco-Cola bottles are back in UK shops from today - 12 years after being discontinued. The comeback is inspired Gen Z's quest for "authentic connection," the beloved brand has said. Sign up for Scottish Sun newsletter Sign up 3 Coca-Cola is bringing back an iconic campaign 3 Cans and bottles will have a wider range of names this summer In 2013, Coca Cola's "Share a Coke" campaign saw customers able to buy a range of personalised cans and bottles. Among the most popular products was the classic coke bottle, with the customer's name printed on the logo in place of the brand name. On May 1, the new and improved launch will offer even more names to choose from, including nicknames, surname and pet names. These will be particularly marketed towards the younger generation, according to the brand. Buyers will be able to pick bottle with terms like 'My Bestie', 'My Bae', 'My Mate', 'My Fam' and 'My Day One.' And, they can ever scan a QR code to create a totally unique tag. Coca-Cola will then introduce a new feature of the campaign this summer - called Coke Memory Maker. The online digital experience allows you to create memes with your friends and family and lets you make your own videos. "Share a Coke" was first rolled out in Australia, where it quickly soared in popularity, before being rolled out in 80 countries around the world. Advertising bosses received plaudits for their work on the campaign - with multiple awards at the Creative Effectiveness Lion Awards at Cannes. Coca Cola Christmas, over the years The re-launch will be another global campaign, according to Coca Cola. Elodie Peribere, Senior Marketing Director UK & Ireland, said the company was "excited" bring back the iconic bottles. She said: ''Share a Coke' is about celebrating the magic of human connections, one personalised Coca-Cola pack at a time. "Returning after its initial popularity in 2013, we're excited to be able to give consumers more ways to connect over a Coca-Cola. "Given the nation's fondness for nicknames, Brits have the chance to personalise a can with a surname, term of affection or nickname of choice, meaning people can create something totally unique to them." It comes after fans raved over the company's new Bacardi & Coca-Cola ready-to-drink beverage, hailing it a "game changer". The drink is a take on the famed Cuba Libre cocktail. The 250ml cans have an RRP of £2.30 and are 5 per cent alcohol by volume (ABV).
