Latest news with #UStreasury
Yahoo
08-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
ServisFirst Bancshares (SFBS): Buy, Sell, or Hold Post Q1 Earnings?
ServisFirst Bancshares has been treading water for the past six months, recording a small loss of 2.9% while holding steady at $81.34. The stock also fell short of the S&P 500's 5.3% gain during that period. Is there a buying opportunity in ServisFirst Bancshares, or does it present a risk to your portfolio? See what our analysts have to say in our full research report, it's free. We're cautious about ServisFirst Bancshares. Here are three reasons why SFBS doesn't excite us and a stock we'd rather own. While banks generate revenue from multiple sources, investors view net interest income as the cornerstone - its predictable, recurring characteristics stand in sharp contrast to the volatility of non-interest income. ServisFirst Bancshares's net interest income has grown at a 7.3% annualized rate over the last four years, slightly worse than the broader bank industry. Net interest margin represents how much a bank earns in relation to its outstanding loans. It's one of the most important metrics to track because it shows how a bank's loans are performing and whether it has the ability to command higher premiums for its services. Over the past two years, ServisFirst Bancshares's net interest margin averaged 2.8%. Its margin also contracted by 50 basis points (100 basis points = 1 percentage point) over that period. This decline was a headwind for its net interest income. While prevailing rates are a major determinant of net interest margin changes over time, the decline could mean ServisFirst Bancshares either faced competition for loans and deposits or experienced a negative mix shift in its balance sheet composition. Leverage is core to the bank's business model (loans funded by deposits) and to ensure their stability, regulators require certain levels of capital and liquidity, focusing on a bank's Tier 1 capital ratio. Tier 1 capital is the highest-quality capital that a bank holds, consisting primarily of common stock and retained earnings, but also physical gold. It serves as the primary cushion against losses and is the first line of defense in times of financial distress. This capital is divided by risk-weighted assets to derive the Tier 1 capital ratio. Risk-weighted means that cash and US treasury securities are assigned little risk while unsecured consumer loans and equity investments get much higher risk weights, for example. New regulation after the 2008 financial crisis requires that all banks must maintain a Tier 1 capital ratio greater than 4.5% On top of this, there are additional buffers based on scale, risk profile, and other regulatory classifications, so that at the end of the day, banks generally must maintain a 7-10% ratio at minimum. Over the last two years, ServisFirst Bancshares has averaged a Tier 1 capital ratio of 11%, which is considered unsafe in the event of a black swan or if macro or market conditions suddenly deteriorate. For this reason alone, we will be crossing it off our shopping list. ServisFirst Bancshares isn't a terrible business, but it isn't one of our picks. With its shares underperforming the market lately, the stock trades at 2.4× forward P/B (or $81.34 per share). This valuation tells us a lot of optimism is priced in - we think there are better stocks to buy right now. We'd suggest looking at one of our top digital advertising picks. Donald Trump's victory in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election sent major indices to all-time highs, but stocks have retraced as investors debate the health of the economy and the potential impact of tariffs. While this leaves much uncertainty around 2025, a few companies are poised for long-term gains regardless of the political or macroeconomic climate, like our Top 9 Market-Beating Stocks. This is a curated list of our High Quality stocks that have generated a market-beating return of 183% over the last five years (as of March 31st 2025). Stocks that made our list in 2020 include now familiar names such as Nvidia (+1,545% between March 2020 and March 2025) as well as under-the-radar businesses like the once-micro-cap company Kadant (+351% five-year return). Find your next big winner with StockStory today.
CNA
03-07-2025
- Business
- CNA
Oil falls on signs of weak US demand ahead of key jobs report
Oil prices eased on Thursday, reversing gains from the previous session, on concerns over weak U.S. demand after government data showed a surprise build in inventories in the world's biggest crude consumer. Brent crude futures fell 24 cents, or 0.35 per cent, to $68.87 a barrel by 0044 GMT after gaining 3 per cent on Wednesday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 24 cents, or 0.36 per cent, to $67.21 a barrel after climbing 3.1 per cent previously. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday domestic crude inventories rose by 3.8 million barrels to 419 million barrels last week. Analysts in a Reuters poll had expected a drawdown of 1.8 million barrels. Gasoline demand dropped to 8.6 million barrels per day, prompting concerns about consumption in the peak U.S. summer driving season. Both benchmarks gained on Wednesday after Iran enacted a law suspending cooperation with the U.N. nuclear watchdog, raising concerns the lingering dispute over the Middle East producer's nuclear program may once again devolve into armed conflict. Additionally, the U.S. and Vietnam reached a trade deal that sets 20 per cent tariffs on many of the Southeast Asian country's exports, giving investors a sense of greater economic stability on international trade which could flow into higher demand for oil. The market will be watching the release of the key U.S. monthly employment report on Thursday to shape expectations around the depth and timing of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the second half of this year, analysts said. Lower interest rates could spur economic activity, which would in turn boost oil demand. A private payrolls report on Wednesday showed a contraction for the first time in two year though analysts cautioned there is no correlation between it and the government data.
Yahoo
01-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
10-Year Treasury Notes Are Firing Up. How Much Higher Can They Go?
September U.S. Treasury note futures (ZNU25) present a buying opportunity on more price strength. See on the daily bar chart for September U.S. Treasury note futures that prices are now trending up and have just hit a two-month high. See, too, at the bottom of the chart that the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator is in a bullish posture as the red MACD line is above the blue trigger line and both lines are trending up. Bulls have the near-term technical advantage, which means the path of least resistance for prices is presently sideways to higher. Elon Musk's Tesla Makes History With 'First Time That a Car Has Delivered Itself to Its Owner' This Defense Stock Could Be the Next Palantir. Should You Buy It Now? Cathie Wood Is Pounding the Table on AMD Stock. Should You Buy Shares Now? Our exclusive Barchart Brief newsletter is your FREE midday guide to what's moving stocks, sectors, and investor sentiment - delivered right when you need the info most. Subscribe today! Fundamentally, there are growing notions in the marketplace that U.S. interest rates will come down yet this year. Recent weaker U.S. economic numbers and tamer U.S. inflation data suggest such. Also, President Donald Trump's administration is putting heavy pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. A move in September T-Note futures prices above chart resistance at Tuesday's high of 112.125 would become a buying opportunity. The upside price objective would be 115-000, or above. Technical support, for which to place a protective sell stop just below, is located at 111-120. IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any trades and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature. Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you. On the date of publication, Jim Wyckoff did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on
CNA
25-06-2025
- Business
- CNA
Asia markets stabilise, dollar droops following Middle East truce
TOKYO :Asian stocks stabilised on Wednesday as crude oil hovered near multi-week lows as a ceasefire between Israel and Iran buoyed sentiment, even as hostilities threatened to flare up again. The dollar wallowed close to an almost four-year trough versus the euro with two-year U.S. Treasury yields sagging to 1 1/2-month lows as lower oil prices reduced the risk to bonds from an inflation shock. The shaky truce has so far held, although Israel says it will respond forcefully to Iranian missile strikes that came after U.S. President Donald Trump had announced an end to the hostilities. In addition, U.S. airstrikes did not destroy Iran's nuclear capability and only set it back by a few months, according to a preliminary U.S. intelligence assessment, contradicting Trump's earlier comments that Iran's nuclear programme had been "obliterated". Japan's Nikkei and Australia's stock benchmark were flat, while Taiwan's index gained 1 per cent. Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 0.6 per cent and mainland Chinese blue chips eased 0.1 per cent. U.S. stock futures were little changed. An MSCI index of global stocks held steady after climbing to a record high overnight. Brent crude ticked up 81 cents to $67.95 per barrel, bouncing a bit following a plunge of as much as $14.58 over the previous two sessions. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude added 70 cents to $65.07 per barrel. "Despite the cease fire between Israel and Iran appearing somewhat tenuous, the markets are shrugging it off," said Kyle Rodda, senior financial markets analyst at "Realistically, the markets don't care if a limited conflict comprised of mostly air strikes continues between the two countries," he said. "It's the prospect of a broader war, with deeper US intervention and an Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz that really matters. And for now, the risks of that seem low." The two-year U.S. Treasury yield dipped to the lowest since May 8 at 3.787 per cent. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the currency against six major counterparts, slipped 0.1 per cent to 97.854. The dollar slipped 0.1 per cent to 144.70 yen. The euro added 0.1 per cent to $1.1625, edging back towards the overnight high of $1.1641, a level not seen since October 2021. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Tuesday that higher tariffs could begin raising inflation this summer, a period that will be key to the U.S. central bank considering possible interest rate cuts. Powell spoke at a hearing before the House Financial Services Committee. Data showed that U.S. consumer confidence unexpectedly deteriorated in June, signalling softening labour market conditions.
Yahoo
24-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
3 Reasons PB is Risky and 1 Stock to Buy Instead
Over the past six months, Prosperity Bancshares's shares (currently trading at $69.10) have posted a disappointing 9.3% loss while the S&P 500 was flat. This was partly due to its softer quarterly results and may have investors wondering how to approach the situation. Is now the time to buy Prosperity Bancshares, or should you be careful about including it in your portfolio? See what our analysts have to say in our full research report, it's free. Even though the stock has become cheaper, we're swiping left on Prosperity Bancshares for now. Here are three reasons why we avoid PB and a stock we'd rather own. While banks generate revenue from multiple sources, investors view net interest income as the cornerstone - its predictable, recurring characteristics stand in sharp contrast to the volatility of non-interest income. Prosperity Bancshares's net interest income was flat over the last four years, much worse than the broader bank industry. This was driven by an increasing loan book and falling net interest margin, which represents how much a bank earns in relation to its outstanding loans. Revenue is a fine reference point for banks, but net interest income and margin are better indicators of business quality for banks because they're balance sheet-driven businesses that leverage their assets to generate profits. Over the past two years, we can see that Prosperity Bancshares's net interest margin averaged a weak 2.9%, indicating the company has weak loan book economics. Leverage is core to the bank's business model (loans funded by deposits) and to ensure their stability, regulators require certain levels of capital and liquidity, focusing on a bank's Tier 1 capital ratio. Tier 1 capital is the highest-quality capital that a bank holds, consisting primarily of common stock and retained earnings, but also physical gold. It serves as the primary cushion against losses and is the first line of defense in times of financial distress. This capital is divided by risk-weighted assets to derive the Tier 1 capital ratio. Risk-weighted means that cash and US treasury securities are assigned little risk while unsecured consumer loans and equity investments get much higher risk weights, for example. New regulation after the 2008 financial crisis requires that all banks must maintain a Tier 1 capital ratio greater than 4.5% On top of this, there are additional buffers based on scale, risk profile, and other regulatory classifications, so that at the end of the day, banks generally must maintain a 7-10% ratio at minimum. Over the last two years, Prosperity Bancshares has averaged a Tier 1 capital ratio of 15.7%, which is considered unsafe in the event of a black swan or if macro or market conditions suddenly deteriorate. For this reason alone, we will be crossing it off our shopping list. Prosperity Bancshares isn't a terrible business, but it doesn't pass our quality test. Following the recent decline, the stock trades at 0.8× forward P/B (or $69.10 per share). Beauty is in the eye of the beholder, but we don't really see a big opportunity at the moment. We're pretty confident there are superior stocks to buy right now. Let us point you toward the Amazon and PayPal of Latin America. The market surged in 2024 and reached record highs after Donald Trump's presidential victory in November, but questions about new economic policies are adding much uncertainty for 2025. While the crowd speculates what might happen next, we're homing in on the companies that can succeed regardless of the political or macroeconomic environment. Put yourself in the driver's seat and build a durable portfolio by checking out our Top 9 Market-Beating Stocks. This is a curated list of our High Quality stocks that have generated a market-beating return of 183% over the last five years (as of March 31st 2025). Stocks that made our list in 2020 include now familiar names such as Nvidia (+1,545% between March 2020 and March 2025) as well as under-the-radar businesses like the once-small-cap company Exlservice (+354% five-year return). Find your next big winner with StockStory today. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
