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Yahoo
04-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Poland Ponders Its Future Under Nawrocki
Warsaw - The mood here on Monday was subdued. Political signs supporting Warsaws progressive mayor, Rafal Trzaskowski, for president of Poland still littered the capital city, hanging from apartment balconies and highway overpasses. But Trzaskowski had lost Sundays runoff election to Karol Nawrocki, a conservative historian backed by Trump. With a Trumpian flair for political invincibility, Nawrocki overcame a bundle of scandals (including reports he had hired sex workers and defrauded an elderly pensioner), eventually outperforming opinion polls and even exit polls to win the presidency. The first exit poll - published immediately after voting ended at 9:00 p.m. local time on Sunday - showed Trzaskowski winning by just over half a point. He declared an early victory. "We won, although the phrase 'razor's edge will forever enter the Polish language and politics," Trzaskowski told his supporters in Warsaw. Meanwhile, Nawrocki told his supporters to remain hopeful. "I believe that we will wake up tomorrow with President Karol Nawrocki." Sure enough, by the time votes were officially tallied, Nawrocki had won by nearly two points, ending Trzaskowskis second presidential bid in failure. The result will affect European politics at a time when security concerns grip the continent. Donald Tusk, Polands center-right prime minister and the former president of the European Council, backed Trzaskowskis campaign in hopes that the mayors pro-Europe inclinations would lead to expanded influence for Poland in Brussels. But Nawrocki, who is backed by the Law and Justice (PiS) party, can stymie Tusks domestic and foreign policy agendas through veto power. Nawrocki opposes EU ambitions to further integrate, share the burdens of immigration, and address climate change collectively. Though Tusk will continue to represent Poland at EU summits, Nawrocki and PiS can challenge the prime ministers legitimacy abroad by tactfully fracturing his coalition at home. Nawrocki may also work to alter the generally pro-Ukraine stance of both Poland and PiS. Since Russias 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Poland has received nearly 1 million Ukrainian refugees and given the equivalent of over $5 billion in aid (in the form of cash and military equipment) to Ukraines war effort. But some Poles are growing weary of all the refugees and the spending. And theyre giving voice to that frustration with their vote. Slawomir Mentzen, a far-right activist from the Confederation party who finished third on the first presidential ballot with nearly 15% of the vote, has been critical of Ukraine. Before the runoff between Trzaskowski and Nawrocki, Mentzen asked both candidates to sign a declaration that included a pledge to, among other things, resist the EU and oppose Ukraines accession to NATO. Nawrocki signed the declaration despite broad support for Ukraine among PiS leaders and supporters. Though Mentzen never formally endorsed Nawrocki, an analysis of Sundays vote found that nearly 90% of Mentzens first-round voters backed Nawrocki in the presidential runoff. Progressive unity proved much more elusive. Multiple voters told me of friends and colleagues who had voted for some of the most liberal candidates in round one only to vote for Nawrocki in the runoff as a way of sticking it to Prime Minister Tusk, whom they believe has neglected his 2023 campaign promise to expand abortion rights. Nawrocki, by contrast, garnered overwhelming support in rural areas by focusing on conservative Catholic values and anti-abortion policies. PiS has also cultivated support in farming communities by championing government subsidies for farmers and parents. A major question moving forward is whether these voters simply care more about issues like abortion than foreign policy or are willfully shifting their support away from Ukraine. In Warsaw, Polands second tallest building is easily spotted from almost anywhere in the city. The Palace of Culture and Science, built in 1952 above the rubble caused by Nazi bombs, was commissioned by Joseph Stalin as "a gift of the Soviet people for the Poles." Its socialist-realist architectural style hovers above the city as a persistent reminder of former stifling Soviet occupation. Since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1989, Poland has experienced steady economic growth, especially recently. The nation now boasts the sixth largest economy in Europe, and the government spent more on defense as a percent of GDP in 2024 than any other EU country. But some Poles fear their countrymen dont fully recognize Putins ambitions to rehang the iron curtain. "I have hope for Polands future," said Patryk Andrysiak in front of Polands presidential palace on Monday. "I moved back here from England recently because the economy is getting really good. But the election worries me. I dont think Nawrocki will be able to affect Ukraine a lot through his position. But the fact that so many voters chose Nawrocki means that people in Poland are not as worried about Russia attacking Ukraine as they should be. Thats a problem." Addison Graham is global affairs correspondent for RealClearPolitics.


Scottish Sun
04-06-2025
- Business
- Scottish Sun
Putin's chilling plot to march 10,000 troops into ANOTHER European nation revealed by its PM… & it could spiral into WW3
Click to share on X/Twitter (Opens in new window) Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window) RUSSIA reportedly plans to deploy 10,000 troops into a breakaway region of another Eastern European nation - igniting fears of Putin's war spilling further across the continent. Moldova's Prime Minister has warned the Kremlin wants to march troops into Transnistria - a Moscow-friendly enclave that's internationally recognised as part of Moldova. Sign up for Scottish Sun newsletter Sign up 7 Cars wait in line at the crossing point between the self-proclaimed republic of Transnistria and Moldova Credit: AFP 7 Moldovan Prime Minister Dorin Recean speaks during a press conference Credit: EPA 7 Russian troops have been based in Transnistria since 1992 Credit: Reuters 7 Russian servicemen walking along at an area in the Kursk region, Russia Credit: EPA 7 The small landlocked region, sandwiched between Ukraine and the rest of Moldova, has been controlled by separatists for 33 years. Transnistria receives significant economic and military support from Moscow, and the region's politicians have voiced their intent for it to become part of Russia. The region's location between the pro-Europe governments in Moldova and Ukraine make it impossible for Putin to get soldiers in at present. While Moldova currently has an EU-friendly government, its PM has said Russia is meddling in its upcoming election this September. Prime Minister Dorin Recean told the FT this is likely in the hope that a more pro-Kremlin government might allow for Russian troops to be sent to Transnistria. "This is a huge effort to undermine Moldovan democracy," he told the paper. "They want to consolidate their military presence in the Transnistrian region." Russian troops have been based in Transnistria since 1992, when the Kremlin supported the region in its war of independence from Moldova. However, the numbers have substantially wound down over the years, with there currently only being about 1,500 soldiers fighting under the Russian banner. But only a few of these will have actually been sent by Moscow, with most being locals who signed up. Deranged Putin lays out wish list of 'surrender demands' for Ukraine… despite being humbled by Russia's 'Pearl Harbour' Transnistria isn't internationally recognised as an independent state, and is not a member of the UN. Think tank The Institute for the Study of War forecast last October that Russia might use its ties to Transnistria "to establish long-term influence over Moldovan domestic and foreign policies". Recean further highlighted the ominous military threats to Ukraine and NATO that could arise from extra Russian troops in the region. Its location to Ukraine's southwest could raise fresh headaches for Kyiv if Russia used Transnistria to open up a new front in the war. "You can imagine with 10,000 troops, what the leverage and pressure would be on the southwestern part of Ukraine," he said. But Recean also noted the area's proximity to Romania, which is a NATO country. If Russian forces threatened or attacked Romania - or any other NATO member - then the entire alliance would be obliged to come to its aid. NATO Article 5 sets out that an attack on one member state is an attack on all, meaning Russian attacks against a NATO country could quickly spiral into all-out war. Transnistria's history Transnistria is a tiny slither of land along Moldova's border with Ukraine The region has been controlled by Russian backed separatists for decades following the collapse of the Soviet Union. It declared independence in 1990, which was followed by a war that saw Russia support Transnistria's independence. Moscow has maintained a strong military presence in the territory since 1992. Many of Transnistria's political leaders have long voiced their intent for the region to become a part of Russia. But it still remains internationally recognised as part of Moldova - a country that seeks closer co-operation with the EU. Transnistria has a population of around 465,000. Fears of a war between the West and Russia over Transnistria have been amplified by the separatist region's leader Vadim Krasnoselsky. He told the Russian TASS news agency: "A war in Transnistria would mean a direct conflict between Russia and NATO. "I don't have the slightest doubt about it. Everything is closely intertwined here. "Both Romania, a NATO member, and the Russian Federation have interests here." Recean added that the 10,000-troop figure was based on intelligence assessments. "Currently, their forces there are almost meaningless," he said. "But with a higher military presence in Transnistria that a Russia-leaning government can allow for, they can consolidate." Moldova was part of the Soviet Union before its collapse in 1991. In recent years, it has sought to pursue closer ties with the European Union, and became an official candidate to join the EU in 2022. A referendum held last year committing Moldova on its path to EU membership passed by just 0.7% of the vote amid what was widely believed to be a Russian interference campaign. Recean told the FT that Russia spent the equivalent of 1% of Moldova's GDP on influence campaigns in 2024. 7 A billboard reading 'Russia in our hearts' sits on the side of a road in the town of Tiraspol, the capital of Transnistria Credit: AFP


The Irish Sun
04-06-2025
- Business
- The Irish Sun
Putin's chilling plot to march 10,000 troops into ANOTHER European nation revealed by its PM… & it could spiral into WW3
RUSSIA reportedly plans to deploy 10,000 troops into a breakaway region of another Eastern European nation - igniting fears of Putin's war spilling further across the continent. Moldova's Prime Minister has warned the Kremlin wants to march troops into Transnistria - a Moscow-friendly enclave that's internationally recognised as part of Moldova. Advertisement 7 Cars wait in line at the crossing point between the self-proclaimed republic of Transnistria and Moldova Credit: AFP 7 Moldovan Prime Minister Dorin Recean speaks during a press conference Credit: EPA 7 Russian troops have been based in Transnistria since 1992 Credit: Reuters 7 Russian servicemen walking along at an area in the Kursk region, Russia Credit: EPA 7 The small landlocked region, sandwiched between Ukraine and the rest of Moldova, has been Transnistria receives significant economic and military support from Moscow, and the region's politicians have voiced their intent for it to become part of Russia. The region's location between the pro-Europe governments in Moldova and Ukraine make it impossible for Putin to get soldiers in at present. While Moldova currently has an EU-friendly government, its PM has said Russia is meddling in its upcoming election this September. Advertisement read more on russia Prime Minister Dorin Recean told the FT this is likely in the hope that a more pro-Kremlin government might allow for Russian troops to be sent to Transnistria. "This is a huge effort to undermine Moldovan democracy," he told the paper. "They want to consolidate their military presence in the Transnistrian region." Russian troops have been based in Transnistria since 1992, when the Kremlin supported the region in its war of independence from Moldova. Advertisement Most read in The US Sun However, the numbers have substantially wound down over the years, with there currently only being about 1,500 soldiers fighting under the Russian banner. But only a few of these will have actually been sent by Moscow, with most being locals who signed up. Deranged Putin lays out wish list of 'surrender demands' for Ukraine… despite being humbled by Russia's 'Pearl Harbour' Transnistria isn't internationally recognised as an independent state, and is not a member of the UN. Think tank The Institute for the Study of War forecast last October that Russia might use its ties to Transnistria "to establish long-term influence over Moldovan domestic and foreign policies". Advertisement Recean further highlighted the ominous military threats to Ukraine and NATO that could arise from extra Russian troops in the region. Its location to Ukraine's southwest could raise fresh headaches for Kyiv if Russia used Transnistria to open up a new front in the war. "You can imagine with 10,000 troops, what the leverage and pressure would be on the southwestern part of Ukraine," he said. But Recean also noted the area's proximity to Romania , which is a NATO country. Advertisement If Russian forces threatened or attacked Romania - or any other NATO member - then the entire alliance would be obliged to come to its aid. NATO Article 5 sets out that an attack on one member state is an attack on all, meaning Russian attacks against a NATO country could quickly spiral into all-out war. Transnistria's history Transnistria is a tiny slither of land along Moldova's border with Ukraine The region has been controlled by Russian backed separatists for decades following the collapse of the Soviet Union. It declared independence in 1990, which was followed by a war that saw Russia support Transnistria's independence. Moscow has maintained a strong military presence in the territory since 1992. Many of Transnistria's political leaders have long voiced their intent for the region to become a part of Russia. But it still remains internationally recognised as part of Moldova - a country that seeks closer co-operation with the EU. Transnistria has a population of around 465,000. Fears of a war between the West and Russia over Transnistria have been amplified by the separatist region's leader Vadim Krasnoselsky. He told the Russian TASS news agency: "A war in Transnistria would mean a direct conflict between Russia and NATO. Advertisement "I don't have the slightest doubt about it. Everything is closely intertwined here. "Both Romania, a NATO member, and the Russian Federation have interests here." Recean added that the 10,000-troop figure was based on intelligence assessments. "Currently, their forces there are almost meaningless," he said. Advertisement "But with a higher military presence in Transnistria that a Russia-leaning government can allow for, they can consolidate." Moldova was part of the Soviet Union before its collapse in 1991. In recent years, it has sought to pursue closer ties with the European Union, and became an official candidate to join the EU in 2022. A referendum held last year committing Moldova on its path to EU membership passed by just 0.7% of the vote amid what was widely believed to be a Russian interference campaign. Advertisement Recean told the FT that Russia spent the equivalent of 1% of Moldova's GDP on influence campaigns in 2024. 7 A billboard reading 'Russia in our hearts' sits on the side of a road in the town of Tiraspol, the capital of Transnistria Credit: AFP 7 Russian servicemen riding atop a self-propelled gun at an area in the Kursk region, Russia Credit: EPA


Indian Express
04-06-2025
- Business
- Indian Express
How Poland's new conservative President, a Trump ally, may upend its EU relations
Karol Nawrocki, a 42-year-old historian and political newcomer, narrowly won Poland's presidency on Monday (June 2). Backed by the nationalist-conservative Law and Justice Party (PiS), he defeated centrist rival Rafał Trzaskowski, with 50.89 per cent of the vote in Sunday's runoff election. An amateur boxer and former football hooligan, Nawrocki ran his campaign on a 'Poland First, Poles First' platform. He was endorsed by US President Donald Trump, with whom he shares many views. Nawrocki's victory signals a PiS resurgence and will put the Eurosceptic president at odds with the pro-Europe government, led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk of the centrist Civic Platform. For the past 18 months, Tusk's government has sought to reverse judicial reforms instituted by the previous PiS government but has faced resistance from outgoing president, Andrzej Duda, a PiS ally. In anticipation of the trend, Tusk announced on Monday that a confidence vote in his government will be held on June 11 to boost support for his coalition government. A populist at heart, Nawrocki, a relatively unknown face before the elections, was positioned as a 'people's candidate' by the PiS. The party announced him as an 'independent candidate' to distance him from the allegations of corruption and breach of law that led to the end of PiS's eight-year rule in 2023. He maintains a tough-guy image, admitting to taking part in a pre-arranged brawl between football teams. He has posted pictures of himself in the gym, firing a gun and riding a tractor. He also emphasises his family and Christian values. His wife, Marta Nawrocka, and their children, Daniel, Antoni and Katarzyna, featured heavily in his campaign. Born in the port city of Gdansk, Nawrocki comes from humble beginnings. He holds a PhD in humanities and currently heads the Institute of National Remembrance, a government agency that researches modern Polish history and investigates crimes under the Nazi occupation and the Communist period. Ties to Trump and 'Poland First' agenda Nawrocki's campaign gained a major boost from his close association with Donald Trump. Notably, Poland and the US are close allies, with 10,000 US troops stationed in Poland. However, Prime Minister Tusk has long maintained an animosity towards Trump. Both Nawrocki and Trump have publicly praised each other, and in May, Nawrocki visited the Oval Office for a photo-op with Trump during his campaign. When Nawrocki won the elections, Trump posted on his social media platform: 'TRUMP ALLY WINS IN POLAND, SHOCKING ALL IN EUROPE. NewsMax. Congratulations Poland, you picked a WINNER!' Thanking the President, Nawrocki said, 'Strong alliance with the USA, as well as partnership based on close cooperation are my top priorities.' Nawrocki has invoked the slogan 'Poland First' along the campaign trail to express his concerns on the cost of living, migration, and security. 'Let's help others, but let's take care of our own citizens first,' he posted on his social media in April. Much like Trump, Nawrocki holds anti-abortion, anti-LGBTQ and anti-immigration views. He has said that he would oppose the imposition of the EU's climate (aimed at decarbonisation) and migration policies. Euroscepticism and perceived EU overreach Responding to a congratulatory message from European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, Nawrocki called for 'respect for national sovereignty'. Nawrocki's victory has added to the list of Eurosceptic leaders, including Hungary's Viktor Orban, Italy's Giorgia Meloni and Slovakia's Robert Fico. They view the EU's policies as undermining their own government decisions. Nawrocki's rise to power comes after the recent election of a liberal mayor as Romania's president, a result pro-European leaders had hoped signalled the ebbing of the far-right tide in central Europe. Nawrocki and the PiS diverge with the EU on key issues surrounding the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Given Poland's own troubled history with Russia, Nawrocki has maintained his support for Ukraine but has opposed Kyiv's entry into alliances such as the European Union (EU) or the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO). He has also spoken of the public's growing weariness with Ukrainian refugees who have added to Warsaw's costs. Nawrocki has also criticised Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for treating Poland 'badly', echoing Trump's remarks. Challenges for the Tusk government Nawrocki's Euroscepticism threatens to hinder Poland's access to crucial EU funds. The Tusk government had pledged to reverse the controversial judicial regime from the PiS era, prompting the EU to unlock €137 billion in funding. A significant chunk of this has already been disbursed, but future cooperation may falter if Nawrocki blocks Tusk's overhauling of judicial reforms. While Nawrocki has limited executive powers, he holds a crucial right to veto legislation, spelling trouble for the Tusk government. The Tusk coalition itself has struggled to push through key electoral promises, including fewer restrictions on abortion and a civil union law for same-sex couples. Despite having a parliamentary majority, the coalition government does not have enough numbers to override the President's veto, triggering fears of a political gridlock. Aligning with Polish farmers, Nawrocki may block the Tusk government's trade deal with South American nations over concerns about cheap agricultural imports. He has also pledged to hold a referendum on the European Green Deal, which faces strong opposition from farmers, coal workers, and the automotive industry. Sonal Gupta is a senior sub-editor on the news desk. She writes feature stories and explainers on a wide range of topics from art and culture to international affairs. She also curates the Morning Expresso, a daily briefing of top stories of the day, which won gold in the 'best newsletter' category at the WAN-IFRA South Asian Digital Media Awards 2023. She also edits our newly-launched pop culture section, Fresh Take. ... Read More


Daily Maverick
02-06-2025
- Politics
- Daily Maverick
Polish conservative Nawrocki leads presidential vote
By Marek Strzelecki and Anna Koper A late exit poll by Ipsos for broadcasters TVN, TVP and Polsat showed Nawrocki at 51% and his rival, liberal Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, at 49%. Readings published just after voting ended had Nawrocki losing at 49.7% to 50.3%. Official results were due on Monday. Nawrocki, 42, an amateur boxer who ran a national remembrance institute, campaigned on a promise to ensure government economic and social policies favour Poles over other nations, including refugees from neighbouring Ukraine. While Poland's parliament holds most power, the president can veto legislation, and the vote was being watched closely in Ukraine as well as Russia, the United States and across the European Union. Both candidates agreed on the need to spend heavily on defence as Trump, the U.S. president, is demanding from Europe and to continue supporting Ukraine in its fight against Russia's three-year-old invasion. Poland is a member of the 32-nation North Atlantic Treaty Organization security alliance. But while Trzaskowski sees Ukraine's future membership of NATO as essential for Poland's security, Nawrocki said recently that if he were president he would not ratify it because of the danger of the alliance being drawn into war with Moscow. Russia has demanded that NATO not enlarge eastward to include Ukraine and other former Soviet republics as a condition of a peace deal with Kyiv, sources have said. Nawrocki has presented the ballot as a referendum on the broad coalition government of pro-Europe Prime Minister Donald Tusk, the leader of the Civic Coalition (KO) party who took office about 18 months ago. 'This will be a good counterweight to the government,' said Mateusz Morawiecki, who was prime minister in the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) government that lost power in 2023. Although technically an independent, Nawrocki was backed by PiS in the election. Trzaskowski, 53, had promised to help Tusk complete his government's democratic reforms, which they both say aim to repair an erosion of checks and balances under the former PiS government. Trzaskowski's campaign initially proclaimed victory on Sunday and did not immediately comment after poll readings showed a move in Nawrocki's favour. TUMULTUOUS CAMPAIGN The first round of the election on May 18 saw a surge in support for the anti-establishment far-right, suggesting that the KO-PiS duopoly that has dominated Polish politics for a generation may be starting to fracture. Nevertheless, after a tumultuous campaign in which Nawrocki in particular faced a slew of negative media reports about his alleged past conduct, once again candidates representing the two main parties faced off in the second round. Nawrocki dismissed accusations of wrongdoing in his acquisition of a flat from a pensioner and participation in mass organised fights among football hooligans. Social issues were also at stake in the election. Trzaskowski has said he wanted to see Poland's near total ban on abortion eased, something that outgoing nationalist President Andrzej Duda strongly opposed. A win by Nawrocki will likely mean that Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orban and Slovakia's Robert Fico gain an ally in central Europe. His victory could lend momentum to the Czech Republic's eurosceptic opposition leader and former Prime Minister Andrej Babis who leads opinion polls ahead of an October election. U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem spoke in Nawrocki's favour in May, telling a conservative gathering in Poland that he 'needs to be the next president.'