Fantasy Football: Geno Smith headlines sleeper candidates at the QB position for 2025

Yahoo

10 hours ago

Fantasy football managers are smarter than ever, so finding a player who's actually being slept on can be difficult.
With that in mind, we're shifting our focus to late-round targets who could drastically outproduce their ADP in 2025.
Over the next week, I'll shine the spotlight on my favorite sleeper candidates at every key fantasy position — starting with quarterbacks.
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Fantasy Sleepers
Quarterbacks
Running Backs (Aug. 6)
Wide Receivers (Aug. 7)
Tight Ends (Aug. 8)
Geno Smith, Raiders
Smith is an underrated NFL quarterback and unfortunately that perception bleeds over into the fantasy world.
It's true that his fantasy stats have taken a step back since his breakout campaign with the Seahawks in 2022, where he finished with the fifth most points at his position and was a top-10 QB in fantasy points per game (18.5).
That year, he was eighth in passing yards, fourth in passing touchdowns and first in completion percentage.
There's no denying his 2023 season was more of a struggle, but injuries to Seattle's offensive line — including both starting tackles going down in the opener — increased the degree of difficulty. He stumbled to a QB25 result (15.7 fppg).
In 2024, Smith's numbers bounced back and he ended the year among the top-five in passing yards and completion percentage. He even graded out as Pro Football Focus' eighth best passer.
Fantasy-wise, that made him the QB17 on a per game basis (16.5 fppg). But the 34-year-old posted eight top-12 weekly performances, including six in the first half of the season before Tyler Lockett's performance declined.
The Raiders liked what they saw and traded for Smith, believing he can be their solution under center. Now, he's reunited with his coach during that career year — Pete Carroll. They're joined by Chip Kelly, who is bringing his uptempo attack to Vegas, which should keep Smith's arm busy.
You could also argue the supporting cast in the desert rivals the talent Smith had in the Pacific Northwest. Brock Bowers, Ashton Jeanty and Jakobi Meyers form the core, which will combine with a group of intriguing young wideouts vying for the No. 2 receiver job.
Remember when Jared Goff only had to play outdoors three times last year and it helped him deliver QB8 fantasy production? Well, Smith gets that cheat code this year, with 12 indoor games and just four outside. In addition, he gets the eighth easiest slate in my fantasy strength of schedule matrix.
So, while he might be coming off two down years, it's hard to justify Smith going off the board after the top-20 quarterbacks in ADP. He's already proved he can be a low-end fantasy QB1 and at worst his situation in Vegas is setting him up to push for a high-end QB2 output.
Anthony Richardson Sr., Colts
Things weren't looking good for Richardson following an injury-plagued and inconsistent season, low-lighted by him taking himself out of a game to catch his breath. It seemed to get even worse, when he missed time in OTAs with a shoulder issue.
Thankfully, he was a full go for training camp and has earned a good amount of praise from those around the team for his recent performances in practice. As we know, Richardson just needs to get on the field in order to instantly be considered a fantasy starter.
The 23-year-old has only played the majority of the Colts' snaps 12 times over the last two seasons, but has eclipsed 20 fantasy points in 50% of those outings. The main reason for that is his rushing production. Even in an up-and-down campaign, Richardson still averaged over 45 rushing yards per contest — which was third-best in 2024, behind only Lamar Jackson and Jayden Daniels.
Indy has also assembled a great collection of talent at the skill positions, including Jonathan Taylor, Josh Downs, Michael Pittman Jr., Alec Pierce, Adonai Mitchell and first-round rookie tight end Tyler Warren, who apparently has been flashing a real connection with Richardson so far.
Despite being locked in a camp battle with Daniel Jones, Richardson is still someone worth taking a chance on as an extreme upside swing in the later rounds.
Michael Penix Jr., Falcons
Penix is a bit of a forgotten man, overshadowed by the massive fantasy potential of the other five quarterbacks taken in Round 1 of the 2024 NFL Draft.
After being forced to wait his turn behind veteran Kirk Cousins last season, Penix finally slid into the starting lineup in Week 16 and showed improvement in each subsequent appearance. He was the QB24 in fppg during that stretch, mostly on the back of a strong Week 18 performance when he threw for 312 yards and two scores, while adding another touchdown on the ground.
Rushing production will be limited from a pocket passer like Penix, but he finds himself in the kind of offensive environment where he could thrive.
Bijan Robinson is arguably the best all-around running back in the league, Drake London announced his presence as a true No. 1 receiver last year, Darnell Mooney (when healthy) is an above-average second option and tight end Kyle Pitts has clearly formed a bond with Penix, who told reporters KP will be getting targeted often this year.
Penix will also benefit from a top-10 offensive line, a solid play-caller in Zac Robinson and the 10th friendliest fantasy schedule among quarterbacks.
Though Penix might not have the same fantasy ceiling as some other young QBs due to his lack of rushing stats, he can still far outproduce his current ADP of QB25.
Cam Ward, Titans
I would normally never put a first-round pick in a sleeper column, but has there ever been a quarterback taken first overall who received less hype than Ward entering their rookie season?
Fantasy managers don't seem intrigued at all by the 23-year-old and no one's making the case that he could surprise and be fantasy relevant in Year 1.
While that's still a long shot, let me remind everyone what Titans head coach Brian Callahan did when Joe Burrow went down for the last seven weeks of the 2023 season. Over that span, Callahan helped backup Jake Browning turn into a top-seven fantasy QB. Though it helps when you're throwing to the Bengals dynamic duo of Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.
To their credit, the Titans have made positive strides to improve their pass-catching corps — bringing in rookies Elic Ayomanor, Chimere Dike, Xavier Restrepo and maybe they can get something early in the season out out of fading veteran Tyler Lockett. That new group will join star Calvin Ridley and promising tight end Chig Okonkwo. Tennessee also has two backs who are very capable in the passing game in Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears.
The Titans have even gone to great lengths to upgrade their offensive line, investing multiple first-round picks and many free-agent dollars in their blocking over the last couple offseasons.
Whether that's enough for Ward to find success as a rookie remains to be seen. He does have the confidence and arm talent required to be a franchise quarterback. And while he's not the biggest threat as a runner, his pocket awareness allows him to buy time to make plays.
For fantasy, that might max him out as a mid-range QB2. However, that would make him a value where he's going now as the QB23.
Fantasy Sleepers
Quarterbacks
Running Backs (Aug. 6)
Wide Receivers (Aug. 7)
Tight Ends (Aug. 8)