Republicans' Chances of Flipping New Hampshire's Democratic Senate Seat
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Democratic Congressman Chris Pappas is viewed more favorably than former Senator Scott Brown, a Republican, among New Hampshire voters ahead of the state's 2026 Senate election, according to a new poll released this week.
Newsweek reached out to the Brown and Pappas campaigns for comment via email.
Why It Matters
Brown, a former Massachusetts senator, announced he is running for Senate in New Hampshire this week in what Republicans are hoping to make a competitive race. New Hampshire has generally tilted toward Democrats in recent federal elections, though Republicans have performed well in gubernatorial races.
Still, former Vice President Kamala Harris won the Granite State by fewer than 3 percentage points in 2024—an indicator of how competitive it could still be for Republicans.
Historically, the party in the White House loses seats in their midterms, so Democrats are optimistic about what the national environment will be next November. Republican incumbents are finding themselves on the defense in states like Maine and North Carolina, and Democrats are hoping to expand the map to more solidly conservative territory to flip the majority.
What to Know
A poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire revealed how New Hampshire voters feel about leading candidates, Pappas and Brown. Although the primary is months away and more candidates could enter the race, at this point, they are the only prominent politicians to make a run for the Senate in their respective parties.
The poll found that voters are split in how they view Pappas, who has represented New Hampshire's First Congressional District since 2019. Thirty-six percent of respondents each said they view him favorably and unfavorably, while 17 percent are neutral about him.
Brown, meanwhile, is viewed more unfavorably, according to the poll.
Former Senator Scott Brown speaks in Portsmouth, New Hampshire on April 10, 2014.
Former Senator Scott Brown speaks in Portsmouth, New Hampshire on April 10, 2014.
Rick Friedman/Corbis via Getty Images
Thirty-eight percent said they viewed him unfavorably, while 12 percent viewed him favorably and 19 percent were neutral about him, according to the poll.
The poll surveyed 1,320 New Hampshire residents from June 19 to June 23, 2025, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points. While it measured favorability, it did not include a head-to-head polling question for the Senate race. No head-to-heads have been conducted between Brown and Pappas so far.
Brown has been viewed as a solid recruit for Republicans after former Governor Chris Sununu, who enjoyed positive approvals during his tenure, declined to run. Brown served as a senator representing Massachusetts from 2010 to 2013 after the death of Senator Ted Kennedy. He lost to Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren in 2012. In 2014, he ran in the New Hampshire Senate race but lost to Shaheen.
Meanwhile, incumbent Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen also decided to retire at the end of her term, leaving an open contest.
Former President Joe Biden won New Hampshire by a larger margin than Harris in 2020, carrying the state by about seven percentage points. It backed former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton over Trump by less than half a percentage point in 2016.
Republicans last won a New Hampshire Senate race in 2010, when now-Governor Kelly Ayotte pulled off a 23-point win against former Democratic Representative Paul Hodes. Ayotte lost reelection in 2016 to Democrat Maggie Hassan, who at the time was the governor. Democrats haven't won the governorship since Hassan's tenure.
What People Are Saying
Nick Puglia, NRSC regional press secretary, told Newsweek: "Chris Pappas voted for the largest working-class tax hike in history, supports dangerous sanctuary city policies that protect violent illegal immigrants, and wants to force women to compete against males. Pappas' out-of-touch agenda represents the opposite of commonsense, and voters will reject him for it in 2026."
The DSCC reacted to Brown's announcement in a statement this week: "After their embarrassing recruitment failure in New Hampshire, Republicans are resorting to a candidate Granite Staters have already rejected. Scott Brown is a die-hard Trump loyalist who puts Wall Street ahead of working people, supports chaotic tariffs and Medicaid cuts, and has an extreme anti-abortion agenda. Republicans have not won a Senate seat in New Hampshire in more than a decade and 2026 will be no different."
Brown said in a video announcing his campaign: "NH is an amazing place to live, work and raise a family. We've been blessed by two great governors, Chris Sununu and Kelly Ayotte, but in Washington, we haven't been represented by the right people. For four years, Chris Pappas has stood with Joe Biden as he opened the border, drove up the cost of everything and made just life just simply unaffordable."
What Happens Next
The Cook Political Report currently classifies New Hampshire's Senate race as leaning Democratic, meaning it is "considered competitive races," but "one party has an advantage."
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