NFL offseason power rankings: No. 8 Tampa Bay Buccaneers ready to take the next step
There was another 15-2 team in the NFL last season. The Kansas City Chiefs won 15 of their first 16 games, but in one of those 15 wins the Buccaneers took them to overtime at Arrowhead Stadium. Had Bucs head coach Todd Bowles not made the mistake of going for the extra point and overtime with 27 seconds left, Tampa Bay might have been the only team in the NFL to win at Detroit and Kansas City last season. The Lions and Chiefs were 29-3 in all other games. There have been nine 15-win teams in NFL history, and the Bucs came very close to beating two of them last season. On the road.
The Buccaneers weren't close to a 15-win team but were pretty good. They won the NFC South. Five of their seven losses (and a playoff loss) came by seven points or less, and the other two came against the Baltimore Ravens and Denver Broncos, both of which were playoff teams. Tampa Bay's season wasn't celebrated much because it played in a bad division, it lost seven games and was knocked off on a last-second field goal by the Washington Commanders in a wild-card playoff game, But there was plenty to be excited about in Tampa Bay going forward.
"There is a lot to be proud of," quarterback Baker Mayfield said after the playoff loss, via AP. "In this moment, that's hard to see, but there's a lot of young guys that are going to be on this roster next [season] that had to step up and did in a big way. That should build confidence for those guys, knowing that who they are as players and as men in adversity situations, to be able to step up like they did."
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The next step is becoming more consistent. That's the path to entering the NFL's elite.
"We've got to play not even better football at the end, but we've got to have killer instinct," Bowles said. "We've got to try to blow people out and try to win the division instead of it going down to the last week."
The fact that Bowles would speak in the offseason about winning the division before the last week of the season speaks to the Buccaneers' mindset and expectations going into the season. Squeezing out a division title in a bad NFC South isn't good enough anymore. They are good enough to be one of those teams that clinches a division title a few weeks before the season ends and then focuses on improving its seed. It just hasn't happened yet.
Maybe this is the season. The rest of the NFC South has plenty of questions. The Saints and Panthers were among the bottom four teams in this offseason ranking. The Falcons could contend in the division but are no guarantee to improve after going 8-9. Tampa Bay has an absolutely loaded offense, led by Mayfield and bolstered by a very good 2024 draft class, and there are reasons to believe the defense can carry over an improvement from late last season. Tampa's defense doesn't need to be great when its offense is coming off a 502-point season and should be even better.
Tampa Bay was among the NFL's elite teams when Tom Brady was there. Then the Bucs struck gold in resuscitating Mayfield's career; he has been excellent the past two seasons. Maybe this is the season the Bucs get back to that level they were at in the Brady era.
Offseason grade
When the Buccaneers went on the clock with the 19th overall draft pick, defense was their biggest need and there were plenty of good players available on that side of the ball. Instead, Tampa Bay went with the best player available and took Ohio State receiver Emeka Egbuka. It wasn't a need, but it might give the Bucs the best receiving group in the NFL. Tampa Bay addressed its biggest need in the second and third rounds by picking cornerbacks Benjamin Morrison and Jacob Parrish. Tampa Bay made it a priority to bring back franchise icons Chris Godwin and Lavonte David, and both of them signed extensions. That didn't leave much money for additions. The Buccaneers had only one big outside free agent (unless you're a fan of punter Riley Dixon), and it was an interesting one. They paid pass rusher Haason Reddick $14 million over one year after his disastrous season with the Jets. Reddick had double-digit sacks each season from 2020-23 before posting just one last season in New York after a long holdout. If Reddick, who will turn 31 in September, is anywhere near double digit sacks this season it will be a huge boost to the Bucs' defense.
Grade: B
Quarterback report
It's scary to lose an offensive coordinator like Liam Coen to a head-coaching job. Coen did a great job with Tampa Bay's offense last season. But that happened a year earlier to the Bucs with Dave Canales and they were fine. Baker Mayfield has become the type of quarterback who gets his offensive coordinators promoted to bigger jobs.
Mayfield is coming off a 4,500-yard, 41-touchdown season with a career best 106.8 passer rating. He had never been above 95.9. The Buccaneers promoted Josh Grizzard, who was Tampa Bay's pass game coordinator last season, so there should be some continuity in the offense. Mayfield believes his offense can get even better. He wants more passing downfield. The Buccaneers' site pointed out that while Tampa Bay was sixth in the NFL in yards per attempt last season at 7.9, the team's average air yards attempt ranked 29th at 6.8. The Bucs were great at yards after catch, but Mayfield says there's more to unlock.
"We're trying to get some more explosive [plays] in," Mayfield said, via the team's site. "Obviously, when you look at the stats — I'm not a big stats guy, but we weren't as much down-the-field explosive. We were creating a lot of open, in the middle, and guys getting some YAC."
BetMGM odds breakdown
From Yahoo's Ben Fawkes: 'There's nothing particularly flashy about the Bucs, who are favored in 12 games this season, including their final six. Drafting Emeka Egbuka in Round 1 should help complement the future Hall of Famer Mike Evans, and TE Cade Otton emerged as a legit target last season, in part due to injuries. The pass rush isn't anything to write home about, but the good news for Tampa Bay is that it finds itself playing again this year in the NFC South. Tampa Bay is favored in all six divisional games and is the clear -110 favorite to win the division at BetMGM. The Bucs also benefit from likely playing only two cold-weather games all season, but star tackle Tristan Wirfs will miss the start of the season."
Yahoo's fantasy take
From Yahoo's Scott Pianowski: "The Buccaneers can't be that worried about Chris Godwin's return from ankle surgery — they gave him a three-year deal in March, after all. But the team also isn't guaranteeing that Godwin will be ready to play Week 1. The Yahoo draft market has kept Godwin in the Top 80, which might be optimistic given the crowding in this passing game — Mike Evans is still here, Emeka Egbuka was drafted in the first round and Jalen McMillan had moments in his rookie season. It's also worth noting that Godwin has not been a dynamic touchdown scorer with Baker Mayfield, spiking a modest seven times over their 24 games together. Unless the draft price comes down, I'll be avoiding Godwin in August."
Stat to remember
The Buccaneers' defense wasn't a mystery last season. It was good against the run and below average against the pass. Therefore, opponents just passed on them all season. Tampa Bay faced the second most pass attempts in the NFL last season and was 30th in rush attempts faced. You wouldn't want to run against Bucs mountainous defensive tackle Vita Vea either. Injuries to cornerback Jamel Dean and safety Antoine Winfield Jr. also invited teams to pass more against the Bucs. Teams will attack the Bucs again that way to start this season. If one or both of rookie cornerbacks Benjamin Morrison and Jacob Parrish can emerge as productive players right away, that would help tremendously.
Even though the Buccaneers were not great against the pass last season, even in per-play numbers and efficiency metrics, the defense got much better in the final third of the season. From Weeks 12-18, Tampa Bay was third in the NFL in EPA (expected points added) allowed, just ahead of Philadelphia and Denver. The Bucs were fourth in success rate allowed. Their pass defense was fourth and seventh in EPA and success rate allowed in that stretch, and the NFL's best in EPA per rush allowed by a wide margin. If Tampa Bay can come anywhere close to carrying over that defensive effectiveness to this season, it would pair well with an offense that has a very high ceiling.
Burning question
Could the Buccaneers have the NFL's best offense?
Here is a list of Buccaneers offensive players who have either played at a Pro Bowl level, have had stretches of stellar play or are young and have the upside to be among the best at their position: QB Baker Mayfield, RB Bucky Irving, WRs Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Emeka Egbuka, TE Cade Otton (he had a 25-258-3 line over three games last season when needed and his role increased), OT Tristan Wirfs, C Graham Barton. That's eight blue-chip or potential blue-chip players on one offense, with other solid backups like RB Rachaad White and WR Jalen McMillan and above-average offensive linemen across the board (Pro Football Focus has Tampa Bay ranked as the No. 6 offensive line in the NFL, and Sharp Football has the Bucs at No. 4). Tampa Bay's rushing and passing offense was top six in EPA (expected points added) and success rate metrics last season, third in yards gained and fourth in points scored. It isn't too much of a stretch to imagine the Bucs having the best offense in the league this season.
There are roadblocks. Wirfs' knee injury is a big concern; he's one of the best tackles in the NFL and will likely miss at least the first four games on the PUP list, according to ESPN. Losing offensive coordinator Liam Coen to the Jaguars' head coaching job can't be ignored. Coen was fantastic last season. There are other very good offenses like the Ravens or Lions who are better bets to lead the NFL in most offensive categories. But Tampa Bay is only a top five offense again, that's pretty good.
Best-case scenario
The Buccaneers have an edge the Eagles, Lions, Rams, 49ers and other NFC contenders don't have. Tampa Bay plays in the worst division in the conference. If the Falcons (who haven't had a winning season since 2017) are just average again, the Buccaneers could win the division by a few games. And if the other divisions beat themselves up, it's not outrageous to believe the Bucs could backdoor their way into a No. 1 seed. Baker Mayfield had a circuitous route to being a top-10 quarterback, but that's his level now. The offense should be one of the NFL's best, as long as left tackle Tristan Wirfs returns and is healthy. Tampa's defense wasn't terrible last season and if it can creep up just a bit after a big improvement down the stretch, the Buccaneers will be dangerous. It would sneak up on a lot of people, but we might look up in the second half of the season and realize the Bucs are Super Bowl contenders.
Nightmare scenario
Every year we underrate the loss of good coordinators. While it seems like the transition from Liam Coen to Josh Grizzard should be seamless, Coen was one of the NFL's best coordinators last season and Grizzard has never run an offense before. Maybe the downgrade will be a big problem. Also, Mike Evans won't be racking up 1,000-yard seasons forever, Chris Godwin is coming off a serious ankle injury and Emeka Egbuka is an unproven rookie. Perhaps the Bucs' offense won't be as good as it looks on paper, especially if elite left tackle Tristan Wirfs never gets right, and the defense is far from elite. Tampa Bay lost seven regular-season games and went one-and-done in the playoffs; perhaps it's just a bad division merchant. And it's not like the Falcons don't feel good about their chances of improving and passing the Bucs.
The crystal ball says
I'm high on the Buccaneers. Offensive success is fairly predictable from year to year, and the Bucs' offense was very good last season. With Chris Godwin back in the lineup, Emeka Egbuka on board and Bucky Irving being the RB1 from the beginning of the season on, Tampa Bay should be even better on offense. Todd Bowles is a good defensive coach and there is some talent on that side, so the strides made there late last season could stick. I'm not buying the Falcons taking much of a jump this season, and that would leave the Buccaneers as the best team in the division by a wide margin. I don't think Tampa Bay will be the NFC's No. 1 seed, but if the division is as soft as I think it might be, the Bucs have a shot at it. I'm likely far more bullish on the Buccaneers than the consensus, but that's OK. This team is about to level up to being a contender.
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