Where the Giants' pitchers rank first (or last) halfway through the season

New York Times

3 days ago

Welcome to the second installment of outlier statistics, where we search for the Giants or their players who rank first or last in the National League. Last time we looked at the hitters, and it got dark. Apologies for that. This one will be about the pitching, which should be more fun.
Here, we'll start with an easy one, just to get our rhythm back.
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This is like when the doctor explains the procedure to you so that you're not as scared. See? Numbers can be normal. Statistics can be expected. Here's something you probably could have predicted before the season started. Logan Webb is pitching even better than expected, and you can read all about his outstanding season here.
Also, that doctor's trick never works with me, either.
More than any other team in baseball, Giants pitchers are freezing their opponents with pitches in the strike zone. It makes sense when you consider the weirdos on the staff, specifically Webb and Tyler Rogers. They're not like other pitchers. Batters think they're ready for anything, and then Rogers throws a 83-mph flutterball that phases in and out of existence. Of course you let that pitch go by. Webb's ability to surprise might not be as dramatic as Rogers', but there are more opportunities for him to get a called strike.
Two pitchers on a 13-man staff could already affect the numbers disproportionately, but there's one more outlier to consider: Patrick Bailey, who leads the National League in catcher framing runs. He's finding some of these strikes.
I'm not sure how meaningful or predictive these rankings are, but I can't imagine any context in which they'd be bad stats to lead the league in. They're free strikes, and they come without the potential penalty of a hit. It's free real estate. Take all you can get.
This is almost certainly related to the last one. You can't foul a pitch you don't swing at. And like the previous stats, I'm not sure if this is predictive or sustainable or anything other than amusing.
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It's amusing enough to mention here, though. Giants pitchers get a lot of swings and misses, and they get a lot of called strikes. It all adds up to the lowest foul-ball percentage in the majors. That's fewer opportunities for ball dudes to trip over a rosin bag, and it also means fewer souvenirs for fans, but it seems like a neutral stat at worst.
Oh, it doesn't feel like it sometimes. As I'm writing at this very second, Camilo Doval is trying to protect a two-run lead in the ninth inning of Wednesday's game. He just allowed a leadoff single. Let's see where this goes.
Ah.
Yeah, there are days when it definitely doesn't seem like the Giants bullpen has the lowest ERA in baseball. But they do, and the ballpark can claim only so much credit. Turns out that Giants relievers can pitch the heck out of the ball.
A low batting average allowed isn't always within a pitcher's control, so you might be tempted to write this stat off as luck-based. I'm not so sure, though, and not just because the team's average allowed is pretty close to their expected average.
Here are two other stats the bullpen is leading the league in:
Giants relievers are getting hitters to make weak contact and beat the ball into the ground. Seems like a good idea. That's just about the best strategy a pitcher can have, other than missing bats entirely, which the bullpen is also good at.
And that's the story of how the Giants won the 2025 World Series behind the greatest bullpen the game had ever seen, because there are certainly no other statistics that can interrupt these fun facts.
If you're someone who gets annoyed at all the newfangled stats, I get it. I've read impassioned rants from people who believe ERA- is vastly superior to ERA+ and think the distinction is the most important issue facing society today. Those are hours I'm not getting back.
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Here's a helpful stat that seems newfangled, then, but is actually as tried and true as batting average. When a pitcher — or an entire team — is really good at stranding runners, be suspicious. Maybe they possess a magic ability to pitch better when they need to the most, but it's more likely just good timing that's unlikely to continue much longer.
Giants relievers have been great at preventing baserunners, but they've also been great at stranding the ones that do reach. Stranding runners is what they're actively trying to do in those situations, so it feels weird to be dismissive and call it a product of luck instead of skill. Pretty sure every pitcher alive would disagree, and their collective opinions should count for plenty.
Still, it's important to note that high LOB% rates don't tend to correlate with … anything, really. It's not a sign of a particularly strong bullpen underneath the hood, or the result of a high-octane bullpen that gets tons of strikeouts. It's not something that sticks with groundball staffs from year to year. It really does feel like the LOB% fairy visits a few teams every year to sprinkle them with the good dust, before visiting the other teams and making a horrible mess in the bathroom. Good luck predicting which teams are which.
One of the stranger seasons from a reliever in recent memory. Miller has a 1.50 ERA as of Thursday, and of the 128 batters he's faced this season, only five ended up scoring. That's great! It's also completely bananas when you consider how many runners he's allowing to reach in the first place. He's walked 20 in 30 innings and hit three more, with the league posting a .373 OBP against him. That's not awful on its own, but it's incredibly suspicious when paired with a strikeout rate in freefall.
And Miller's strikeout numbers are way down this year, even though it doesn't seem like he's doing anything differently. He still throws in the upper-90s from the left side. He still has a changeup that can make hitters look silly when it's right. He can still snap off some good sliders. Pitchers like this generally don't lose strikeouts for no reason.
Either way, his ERA is probably shinier than it should be. Just a heads up.
I love this pairing so much. The Giants are the best at preventing hard hits, but that's because they're the best at allowing kinda-hard hits. Is that something a team wants to lead the majors in? Maybe we should say they're the worst at allowing kinda-hard hits. Except it's probably a good thing in this context.
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Either way, this is a pretty good way to sum up the Giants pitching staff. They don't allow a lot of contact. When they do, they don't allow hard contact. They do allow a lot of medium contact, but if it's a reliever, most of it goes on the ground. Shake it all up, and you have what might be the most effective bullpen in the majors and one of the most effective staffs overall. It's giving them a chance to compete.
Which means you should get extra anxious when they're hitting. More than usual, even. Look at how many fun pitching stats the Giants are leading the world in! They can't possibly waste this kind of pitching, can they? Boy, it'd be a shame to waste this kind of pitching.
Feels like you're not getting anxious enough. C'mon, it takes the pressure off the hitters, try it, let's get super anxious, here. Deep breath, counting down from 3 … 2…
(Top photo of Robbie Ray: John Hefti / Imagn Images)