
US may reduce oil production because of sluggish demand and falling crude prices: S&P
The report further added that slowing global oil demand, extreme uncertainty about the future of US trade and a coming supply surplus are expected to hobble US oil production growth.
The S&P Global Commodity Insights Global Crude Oil Markets Short-term Outlook adds that global oil (total liquids) demand growth to average 750,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2025, a downward revision of 500,000 b/d from the prior outlook.
'Although the magnitude of a potential economic and oil demand downturn is as uncertain as the future course of U.S. tariffs, the impact will be negative. Initial warning signs of a potential downturn are only starting to come into view. The level of severity is now the big question,' as per Jim Burkhard, Vice President and Global Head of Crude Oil Research, S&P Global Commodity Insights.
The new demand outlook represents a significant shift in momentum following strong oil demand growth in the first quarter of the year when demand grew by an estimated 1.75 million b/d year-over-year.
In contrast, demand growth for the remaining quarters of year is now expected to average 420,000 b/d, the report added.
The report adds that the total U.S production for 2025 is expected to average 13.46 million b/d (gain of 252,000 b/d year-over-year) before falling back to 13.33 million b/d for 2026--a 130,000 b/d decline.
'U.S. oil production growth has been a dominant feature in the oil market since 2022. A price-driven decline in U.S. production would be a pivot point for the oil market--and set conditions for a potential price recovery. But much will depend on the severity of an economic slowdown and the impact on demand growth beyond 2025,' Burkhard added.
Ian Stewart, Associate Director, S&P Global Commodity Insights said that dizzying changes to U.S. tariffs--both real and proposed--are taking their toll on market sentiment.
'Our current outlook assumes that there will ultimately be some movement away from trade barriers to China as well as signs of progress in U.S. trade talks with Europe, Japan and other major trading partners. That means that the risk for additional downside is very real. Any periods of price strength are likely to be fragile,' Stewart added. (ANI)
Hashtags

Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles


Time of India
3 hours ago
- Time of India
FTA momentum: Piyush Goyal confirms Oman deal ‘almost finalised'; talks with EU, US & others also moving fast
India's Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with Oman is at an advanced stage and nearly finalised, Union Commerce and Industry Minister confirmed on Saturday. He also noted that negotiations with the European Union, United States, Peru, and Chile are progressing rapidly and making 'fast progress'. Tired of too many ads? go ad free now 'We are in negotiations at an advanced stage with Oman. It is almost finalised,' said Goyal, as per news agency ANI. A t a press conference, Goyal highlighted India's recent track record in concluding major trade agreements with developed economies. These include FTAs with Mauritius, Australia, and the four-nation European Free Trade Association (EFTA) bloc — Switzerland, Norway, Liechtenstein, and Iceland. He also spoke about the recently signed India-UK Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA), calling it 'very comprehensive,' with 30 chapters. The agreement, signed during Prime Minister Narendra Modi's two-day visit to the UK, is aimed at enhancing trade flows and deepening economic cooperation. According to the UK government, India's average tariffs on UK goods will drop from 15% to 3% under the new FTA, potentially boosting bilateral trade to $120 billion by 2030. "The goods and services that India provides to the world have high quality and cost competitiveness," Goyal said. He added that these FTAs underscore India's rising importance on the global economic stage. Regarding the proposed trade pact with the US, Goyal said discussions are progressing fast, with the next round of talks expected in August. As per news agency PTI, the two countries aim to finalise the first tranche of their bilateral trade agreement by fall, targeting a trade volume of $500 billion — more than double the current figure of $191 billion. Tired of too many ads? go ad free now However, trade negotiations with the US involve complex issues, particularly around agricultural and dairy products, where India has so far resisted granting duty concessions. India is also pressing for reduced tariffs on steel, aluminium, automobiles, and a range of labour-intensive sectors like textiles, gems and jewellery, and chemicals. Goyal emphasised that the government's goal is to 'expand frontiers of India's international trade' and strengthen investor confidence. 'Each [FTA] is getting its requisite attention,' he added, pointing to parallel talks with countries like New Zealand and Chile.


Time of India
6 hours ago
- Time of India
‘Will hurt their international trade': Piyush Goyal warns of blowback over carbon tax; says EU may hurt itself more
Union commerce and industry minister on Saturday said the 's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is likely to harm European industries more than its intended targets, including India. Tired of too many ads? go ad free now 'There is a lot of opposition to CBAM in the EU also. EU's infrastructure will become costlier. EU's housing will become costlier. EU's cost of manufacturing will become costlier, which will hurt their ,' Goyal said at a press conference. As per news agency ANI, he added that this could actually create more export opportunities for India due to its competitive manufacturing base. Goyal also noted the growing discontent against CBAM among European business leaders. 'When I go to different countries in Europe and I criticise CBAM, all the industry players, CEOs of very large companies, come up to me and thank me. They say you speak like you are our minister,' he said. Emphasising Prime Minister Narendra Modi's principle of converting challenges into opportunities, Goyal assured that India is fully capable of responding if export interests are harmed. 'We are a sovereign and very powerful nation today, so if anybody hurts our export interest, we will react and retaliate or rebalance,' he said. Goyal also confirmed that the India-UK Free Trade Agreement (FTA), signed on Thursday during 's visit to London, has made strong progress across sensitive areas like gender, environment and intellectual property. 'We have protected all the sensitive sectors of India vis-à-vis the UK... Dairy, rice and sugar, we have not opened for the United Kingdom,' he said. He added that the FTA ensures 99% preferential or zero-duty access for Indian exports to the UK, making it a 'phenomenal' deal that offers both stability and new investment opportunities. Tired of too many ads? go ad free now 'It will not only support export of goods and services, but will also bring a stable, predictable and secure framework in which India can become a trusted partner for the UK's supply chains,' he said. The agreement is part of India's broader goal to double bilateral trade with the UK to $120 billion by 2030. As per news agency PTI, India has also secured an understanding through diplomatic communication (note verbale) to safeguard its interests in case the UK implements a carbon tax in the future. If such a tax affects India's trade benefits under the FTA, the country will retain the right to take countermeasures, including withdrawing concessions.


United News of India
10 hours ago
- United News of India
Manufacturing sector is booming with steady services growth in India: Report
New Delhi, July 26 (UNI) The HSBC Flash India Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) report showed strong domestic economic conditions fueled by vibrant manufacturing. This report highlighted the headline composite PMI Output index, which rose to 60.7 per cent in July. While the manufacturing PMI also witnessed a surge and rose to 59.2 per cent. The manufacturing sector showed a major increase in buying levels among good producers, which was widely supported by timely supplier deliveries. On the other hand, the stock of finished goods witnessed a marginal fall as firms have mostly used the warehoused goods to meet the standards of rising demand. The HSBC report also pointed out a surge in charge inflation as private sector companies raised the selling prices to share the cost burden with clients. A strong inflation rate is observed in both the manufacturing and service sectors. The report also noted that international orders placed with private sector companies witnessed a surge in July. Moreover, major contributing economies were Asia, Europe, and the US. Pranjul Bhandari (chief India economist, HSBC), pointing out the strong composite output index numbers in July, mentioned some factors, including growth in total sales, export orders, and output levels. Bhandari also stated that Indian manufacturers are leading the way with steady service sector growth. The HSBC Flash India PMI report is compiled by S&P Global (Standard & Poor's) by conducting rigorous surveys of manufacturers and service providers. This data is then used for creating PMI indices, which are considered the key economic health indicators of the manufacturing and service sectors. UNI SAS PRS