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India.com
6 days ago
- Politics
- India.com
Battle For Bihar: Will Votes 2025 Herald A Political Shake-Up?
By Ramakant Chaudhary The Bihar Assembly Elections, slated for October-November 2025, promise to be a high-stakes contest that could change the matrix of the state's political dynamics. With a population of 13.07 crore and a history rooted in caste-based politics, Bihar remains a critical battleground for national and regional parties. The ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's Janata Dal (United) (JD(U)) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), faces a formidable challenge from the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)-led Mahagathbandhan and a new entrant, Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj Party. As the first major election following Operation Sindoor, the polls will test whether Bihar's voters seek continuity or change. The NDA, comprising JD(U), BJP, Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) (LJP(RV)), and Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM), enters the fray with a mixed record. Nitish Kumar, a veteran of Bihar politics, has steered the state through development milestones like improved roads and electricity but faces criticism for his frequent alliance switches. His return to the NDA before the 2024 Lok Sabha elections helped the coalition secure 30 of Bihar's 40 seats, with BJP and JD(U) winning 12 each, LJP(RV) 5, and HAM 1. However, a C-Voter survey indicates that Nitish's credibility has taken a hit, with his approval rating dropping from 60 percent to 16-17 percent over a decade of political flip-flops. The BJP, riding on Prime Minister Narendra Modi's appeal and the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) support, aims to consolidate its grip, as seen in its recent dominance in the state cabinet, holding 21 of 36 portfolios. The RJD-led Mahagathbandhan, including Congress and Left parties, is banking on Tejashwi Yadav's youthful appeal and a narrative of jobs and social justice. In 2020, the RJD emerged as the single-largest party with 75 seats, capitalising on anti-incumbency against the NDA's 20-year rule. Tejashwi's MY-BAAP strategy-targeting Muslim-Yadav, Bahujan (Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes), Aghda(forward, i.e. upper castes), Aadi Aabaadi (half the population, i.e. women) and Poor-aims to broaden the RJD's base beyond its traditional Muslim-Yadav vote bank. However, the alliance's limited success in 2024, winning only 9 Lok Sabha seats (RJD 4, Congress 3, CPI(ML) 2), exposed vulnerabilities, particularly Congress's waning influence and internal factionalism. Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj Party introduces a fresh dynamic, promising governance free of caste politics. Launched in October 2024, it secured 10 percent vote share in the November 2024 by-elections but failed to win any of the four seats contested. Its focus on education, health, and clean governance resonates with urban youth but struggles to penetrate rural Bihar, where caste loyalties dominate. Jan Suraaj's plan to field candidates in all 243 seats could split the anti-incumbency vote, potentially benefiting the NDA. Voter Pulse The 2024 Lok Sabha election results offer insights into Bihar's voter sentiment. The NDA's 30-seat haul reflected its organisational strength and Nitish Kumar's enduring rural appeal, particularly among Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs, 36.01 percent) and Kurmis (2.87percent) through his Luv-Kush strategy. However, its tally fell from 39 seats in 2019, indicating cracks in its dominance. The BJP's losses in Shahabad and Magadh, where Koeri voters shifted to the RJD, underscored the fluidity of caste alignments. The Mahagathbandhan's 9 seats, up from 1 in 2019, signalled a resurgence, with Tejashwi's outreach to EBCs and youth yielding dividends in constituencies like Aurangabad. Yet, the RJD's inability to breach the NDA's strongholds exposed its reliance on Muslim (18percent) and Yadav (14.26percent) votes. The 2024 by-elections further clarified voter trends. The NDA's sweep of all four seats-Belaganj, Ramgarh, Tarari, and Imamganj-highlighted its coalition cohesion and Nitish's resilience despite health concerns. The RJD's loss in Belaganj, a traditional stronghold, to JD(U)'s Manorama Devi by over 21,000 votes was a setback, though Tejashwi dismissed it as a minor hiccup. Jan Suraaj's third-place finishes in three seats showed potential but also its limited electoral heft. These results suggest that while anti-incumbency exists, the NDA's development narrative and caste engineering still hold sway. Bihar's 2023 caste survey underscores the centrality of caste in its politics. EBCs (36.01 percent), OBCs (27.13percent), Scheduled Castes (SCs, 19.65percent), and Scheduled Tribes (STs, 1.68percent) constitute 84.47percent of the population, with Yadavs (14.26percent) and Koeris (4.21percent) being key OBC groups. Forward castes, including Brahmins (3.65percent) and Rajputs (3.45percent), form just 15.52percent. The NDA's Luv-Kush alliance, uniting Kurmis and Koeris, has been a game-changer for Nitish, countering the RJD's Muslim-Yadav base. However, the RJD's MY-BAAP strategy seeks to chip away at EBC and SC votes, with mixed success in 2024. Jan Suraaj's caste-neutral pitch faces an uphill battle in a state where identity drives voting behaviour, as seen in its by-election performance. Political Flashpoint The 2025 election is the first since Operation Sindoor, a crackdown on terrorism that has sparked debate. The BJP has hailed it as a triumph of nationalism and defeat of terrorism, while the RJD and Congress accuse the NDA of politicising it to consolidate Hindu votes. This controversy could polarise voters, with the NDA leveraging it to project a tough stance and the RJD framing it as an overreach to distract from governance failures. The operation's impact on voter sentiment, particularly among urban and upper-caste voters, will be crucial. Bihar's electoral landscape varies across regions. In urban areas like Patna and Muzaffarpur, the NDA's development record-roads, electricity, and law enforcement-finds favour. However, rural regions like Seemanchal and Tirhut grapple with floods, agrarian distress, and migration, fuelling discontent. Tejashwi's promise of 10 lakh jobs and loan waivers targets these concerns, though doubts about feasibility persist. Jan Suraaj's focus on education and health appeals to aspirational voters but lacks rural traction without a caste anchor. Women voters, empowered by Nitish's liquor ban, are a key demographic. The NDA aims to retain their support through welfare schemes, while the RJD counters with financial aid promises. Technology is another frontier, with the BJP's digital campaigns clashing with the RJD's grassroots WhatsApp networks. Jan Suraaj's viral outreach targets youth, but low literacy and digital access in rural Bihar limit its impact. Nitish Kumar's health and leadership face scrutiny, with opposition leaders like Tejashwi and Prashant Kishor questioning his fitness. Speculation about Nitish's son, Nishant Kumar, contesting from Harnaut adds intrigue, potentially signaling a succession plan. The BJP's cryptic remarks about deciding the chief minister post-election have strained ties with JD(U), which insists on Nitish as the NDA's face. Tejashwi, backed by Lalu Prasad, is the Mahagathbandhan's chief ministerial candidate, with 38.3percent support in opinion polls against Nitish's 35.6percent. Prashant Kishor, while ruling himself out as a chief ministerial contender, claims Jan Suraaj will produce Bihar's next leader, a bold but untested assertion. Will 2025 Change Bihar's Course? The 2025 election is a litmus test for Bihar's political future. The NDA's stability and development record face off against the Mahagathbandhan's populist promises and Jan Suraaj's reformist vision. Historical trends show Bihar's voters are swayed by caste coalitions and tactical alliances, but rising demands for jobs, infrastructure, and quality of life signal a subtle shift. The NDA's by-election sweep and Lok Sabha dominance suggest it enters with an edge, but anti-incumbency and Tejashwi's youth appeal keep the contest open. Jan Suraaj, despite its buzz, risks being a spoiler unless it builds a robust rural base. The election's outcome will reverberate beyond Bihar, shaping national politics ahead of the 2029 Lok Sabha polls. An NDA victory would cement BJP's dominance and Nitish's relevance, while a Mahagathbandhan win could revive the INDIA bloc. Jan Suraaj's performance, even if modest, could signal a new paradigm if it sustains momentum. For Bihar's 13.07 crore people, the ballot will decide whether the state continues its incremental progress or embraces a new direction, balancing caste loyalties with aspirations for change.
Indian Express
07-07-2025
- Politics
- Indian Express
What Akhilesh Yadav's new base of operations in Azamgarh reveals about SP plans
A new residence-cum-office that Akhilesh Yadav inaugurated in his party's stronghold Azamgarh last week appears to be part of the Samajwadi Party (SP) president's larger repositioning with the 2027 Assembly elections in mind. On Thursday, the SP chief inaugurated the house that has been named the PDA Bhavan after the party's strategy of reaching out to the 'Pichhda (OBCs), Dalits, and Alpsankhayk (minorities)' in an attempt to expand its electoral base and be more than just a Muslim-Yadav party. With this, Akhilesh has also signalled his interest in maintaining a personal base of operations in Azamgarh, where the party won all 10 Assembly seats in 2022. The district's two Lok Sabha constituencies, Azamgarh and Lalganj, have also historically voted for the SP, which currently holds both of them. Beyond the symbolism, the new building will also smoothen operations for the SP in Azamgarh, where earlier the party operated out of a single room and did not have adequate space to host senior leaders. The importance of Azamgarh goes beyond just the district. It is part of eastern UP (Purvanchal), where the BJP took a hit in the 2022 Assembly elections and the SP made a gain of 39 seats, jumping from 16 in 2017 to 55, and the BJP's tally reduced from 114 in 2017 to 86. These are the gains Akhilesh wants to hold on to as he prepares for the 2027 battle. 'This development shows that Akhilesh is going to make Azamgarh a centre of party activities in eastern UP,' said an SP leader. 'He will frequently visit here, travel to adjoining areas, and hold meetings personally.' SP district president Hawaldar Yadav said Azamgarh had 'only a few hotels, but they lack the adequate arrangements and facilities'. 'Due to these issues, Akhilesh ji used to avoid night stay in Azamgarh. Last time he had an overnight stay here in 2019 after he was elected MP from here,' said the SP leader. And for the party, the goal remains clear: make Akhilesh the Chief Minister in 2027. For that to happen, Azamgarh and the larger Purvanchal region have to deliver for the party. During the inauguration, Akhilesh also signalled broader aspirations, with Azamgarh at the centre. 'Patna and Lucknow are almost the same distance from Azamgarh,' he said, hinting that the party wants to play an active role in helping the RJD in the Bihar Assembly elections later this year. SP gets going The all-important test for the party will be the Assembly elections two years down the line, and it has gradually started making moves to get into shape for the battle with the BJP. In July, it launched a year-long drive to reach out to Pasmanda Muslims and consolidate its core Muslim-Yadav base. The party plans to hold meetings with Pasmandas in all 403 Assembly constituencies, followed by district-level conventions, and finally, a state-level public meeting will be organised when the Assembly elections approach. The party has also devised a strategy to focus on 108 Assembly seats that it has lost in the last three Assembly elections. It has appointed observers for each of these constituencies, and they have been asked to submit their reports to Akhilesh within a set timeframe. Sources said the observers had already made at least a couple of visits to each of these seats in the past fortnight and held meetings with the district office-bearers and prominent leaders there. The SP is also calibrating its policies and strategies for various social groups. Akhilesh has promised that if voted to power his administration will install a statue of Raja Suheldev on the Gomti riverfront in Lucknow. This is a signal to the Rajbhar community, which is estimated to make up 18% of the electorate in eastern UP. The party has also promised to build a memorial dedicated to former Congress MP Shivdayal Chaurasia, who was a staunch social justice advocate and worked for the uplift of Dalits and OBCs. The SP is also fine-tuning its strategy to reach out to women, the driving force behind the victors in recent state elections, promising direct money transfers into their bank accounts, along with free mobile phones, laptops, and skill development programmes.
NDTV
03-07-2025
- Politics
- NDTV
Bihar Poll Run-Up: Is Nitish Kumar King, Kingmaker, Or Just Clinging On?
Last year, at a book release event in August, the then Governor of Bihar, Rajendra Arlekar, had described Chief Minister Nitish Kumar rather peculiarly: 'Ajatashatru', meaning one who has no enemies. "He enjoys cordial relations even with the opposition and never uses wrong words against them. Nitish bears no ill will against anyone," he had said. Looking back today, that might as well be true for someone who has been administering the state of Bihar for two decades now - except for a brief interregnum of nine months - and is tipped to continue in the job even after the forthcoming assembly election later this year. Age is no bar: despite having turned 74, Kumar remains the face of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) coalition in Bihar. Five years ago, Nitish faced a huge setback when his Janata Dal (United), or JD(U), was reduced to a paltry 43 seats in the 243-seat state assembly. But even that couldn't keep him from holding on to his chief ministerial office for the whole term, first in the company of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and then the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), and then again, the BJP. Now, with the JD(U)'s 12 MPs serving as a vital buffer to the BJP's 240 seats in the Lok Sabha, his position is virtually safe. That is, unless the INDIA bloc can wrest a win against all odds. State Of Play The trouble is that the 'Mahagadbandhan' remains a grand coalition just in name. It has failed to broaden its base beyond the Muslim-Yadav combination. There is a third player, too, in election strategist-turned-politician Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj Party, but it remains to be seen whether it can really emerge as kingmaker or deny Nitish a fifth term in power by splitting NDA votes. As things stand, the NDA's prospects have only brightened following Operation Sindoor and the announcement of a caste census by the Centre. In the wake of Operation Sindoor, PM Modi held a massive roadshow in Patna on May 29, his third visit to the state in five months; the next stopover was in June 20. Even Rahul Gandhi has been a bit more visible in Bihar lately, following the appointment of his close aide, Krishna Allavaru, as the general secretary in charge of the Congress, and Dalit leader Rajesh Kumar as its new state chief. Allavaru is apparently the brains behind the 'Palayan Roko, Naukri Do' padayatra led by Kanhaiya Kumar. Chirag Paswan's Gamble However, in what might set the alarm bells ringing for Nitish, Union Minister Chirag Paswan has expressed his intent to contest the assembly elections, stating that he has his heart set on Bihar politics going forward. Although Chirag clarified that there was no vacancy for the Chief Minister's chair for now, Nitish wouldn't be very pleased with the proposition of having to contend with a young face from within the NDA ranks. In any case, he has to contend with Tejashwi Yadav, Prashant Kishor and Kanhaiya Kumar in the opposition. Not to forget, it was Chirag Paswan's Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) (LJP) that was primarily responsible for the JD(U)'s dismal tally of 43 in 2020, defeating it single-handedly in as many as 28 constituencies. Rumours abounded back then that the LJP had been contesting that election with the blessings of the BJP. The 5.8% vote share registered by the party, with its candidates vying for 143 constituencies, had ensured that Chirag's faction would eventually replace the Rashtriya Lok Janshakti Party (RLJP) led by his uncle Pashupati Kumar Paras, in the NDA fold. The RLJP was also not accommodated in the NDA's seat-sharing arrangement in 2020, but, nevertheless, it stood out the contest, with Paras serving in the Modi Cabinet back then. Today, the RLJP has finally joined the Opposition-led Mahagadbandhan in the run-up to the polls. The fact, however, remains that it's a virtually untested party in the poll arena. With Nitish's popularity gradually on the wane, it is likely that the BJP will once again let Chirag do his thing in Bihar as the NDA's 'youth' face to counter the likes of Tejashwi Yadav and Prashant Kishor. Chirag is reportedly seeking a share of 42 seats - what the undivided Lok Janshakti Party was allocated within the NDA in 2015. But he could be happy with much less, too. More than the seat tally, Chirag sees an opportunity to emerge as a potential leader of the alliance in 2030, when Nitish would be months shy of turning 80. BJP's Shortage Of Faces Herein lies the BJP's main trouble in Bihar, the only state in the Hindi heartland where it has failed to independently head a government. The BJP has leaders hailing from every dominant caste group. There is Deputy Chief Minister Samrat Chaudhary, a Koeri, Vijay Kumar Sinha and Giriraj Singh, both Bhumihars, Mangal Pandey and Rajiv Pratap Rudy, both Brahmins, Nand Kishore Yadav and Nityanand Rai from the Yadav group, Sanjay Paswan and Janak Ram representing Dalit sections, and Ravishankar Prasad, a Kayastha. However, none of them has a pan-Bihar appeal. Nitish's former deputy, Sushil Kumar Modi, who passed away last year, was the BJP's best-known face in the state. He was from the Vaishya caste. While Nitish towers as the tallest Kurmi leader in Bihar, the Koeris are also part of the JD(U)'s core base, with the Kurmis and Koeris traditionally comprising the Luv-Kush grouping. Notwithstanding familiar Kurmi faces such as Keshav Prasad Maurya in neighbouring Uttar Pradesh, the BJP has failed to groom a Kurmi leader of its own in Bihar. True, Samrat Chaudhary does have some influence in the Koeri community, but there are challengers to him within the NDA ranks, such as Upendra Kushwaha, the leader of the Rashtriya Lok Morcha, who has been smarting after his loss in the Lok Sabha election. That defeat robbed him of a central ministry, even if he was later nominated to the Rajya Sabha. How The Alliances Stack Up Even so, the BJP has a robust organisation in the state, along with the goodwill factor of PM Modi. Mukesh Sahani's Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) is not part of the NDA anymore, and hence the 11 seats allotted to it in 2020 for Extremely Backward Class (EBC) Mallahs have been freed, although Kushwaha's RLM will have to be given some of them. In any case, it is unlikely that, as in 2020, the BJP will part with 115 seats and leave them for the JD(U), although accommodating Chirag's LJP would mean both principal parties contesting fewer seats. Nitish, on his part, will continue to drive a hard bargain, with his base more or less intact. With the addition of Jitan Ram Majhi's Hindustan Awam Morcha (HAM), the NDA looks formidable on paper. Remember, even in the challenging 2024 Lok Sabha election, the NDA had held its own in Bihar, winning 30 out of the 40 seats in the state. The INDIA bloc has its task cut out. The RJD is likely to leave around 100 seats for its allies. Apart from the VIP and the RLJP - not part of the alliance in 2020 - the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) has also reached out to Tejashwi Yadav to be accommodated within the coalition. But the Grand Alliance has shown little interest. Also, with the CPI (Marxist-Leninist) demanding its fair share on account of its impressive strike rate, the Congress's seat tally could come down from a high of 70 in 2020 to as little as 40 seats. The Nitish Formula There has been no dearth of political obituaries written for Nitish Kumar since 2014, but the 'Ajatashatru' has managed to outwit his detractors every single time. What most critics don't realise about his longevity is that he had worked hard - losing four elections on the trot - before finally becoming Chief Minister in 2005. He carved his own base out of Lalu Prasad Yadav's original coalition, getting the EBCs, the non-Yadav OBCs, Mahadalits, and even Pasmanda Muslims to add to the Kurmi-Koeri foundation. In 2020, both the NDA and the Mahagadbandhan polled around 37% votes. Now, with the addition of the LJP to the NDA and smaller parties to the opposition alliance, a winning coalition would need upwards of 40% votes. Sure, Prashant Kishor's approval ratings have been on the rise, but that may not necessarily translate to votes. Nobody understands that better than Nitish himself, who won just 4% votes in the company of the CPI(ML) in his first election, after striking out on his own in 1995. Interestingly though, Prashant Kishor seems to be playing the long game, like Nitish himself. And he has the mentor's former loyalist and handyman, RCP Singh, by his side, the latter having merged his JD(U) faction with the Jan Suraaj recently. Kishor has his sights on the JD(U)'s formidable vote base, with the party unlikely to survive after Nitish Kumar. The nine-time Chief Minister is not like his fellow socialists, who engendered dynastic politics; Nitish's 44-year-old reclusive son Nishant Kumar is highly unlikely to make a political foray at this stage. For the BJP, this could have been the perfect time to deepen its roots in Bihar, had it not been for the JD(U)'s 12 Lok Sabha MPs and the 'Ajatashatru's' ability - and tendency - to nonchalantly walk over to the opposite side with his faithful voter base. Having failed at charting a bigger role for himself outside Bihar as part of the INDIA bloc, Nitish knows that this year's election might just be his last hurrah.
NDTV
03-07-2025
- Politics
- NDTV
Asaduddin Owaisi's "Mummy They Stole Chocolate" Dig At INDIA Bloc On Bihar Alliance
New Delhi: Reiterating that the AIMIM is open to a poll alliance with other Opposition parties in Bihar, party chief and Hyderabad MP Asaduddin Owaisi has taken a swipe at the INDIA bloc, and said, "no one should cry after the election and say, 'Mummy, they stole our chocolate'". In an exclusive interview with NDTV, Mr Owaisi was asked if the AIMIM planned to forge an alliance or join the Mahagathbandhan led by the Rashtriya Janata Dal and the Congress. "Our state party chief, Akhtarul Imam, is trying. And I have asked him to try his best. No one should cry after the election, 'Mummy, mummy, they have stolen your chocolate'. If they are ready (for an alliance), I am ready. I don't want the BJP-NDA to return. But if they don't agree, we would have to contest the election, right?" he said. The 'chocolate' swipe appears to be aimed at Opposition parties that have often alleged that AIMIM is the BJP's "B-team" and enters the poll contest to split anti-BJP votes and benefit the BJP. The AIMIM leader said the party declared candidates for two seats, Bahadurganj and Dhaka, a month ago. "Our candidates are working hard. We will put up candidates in other seats too. They (Opposition parties) have to think (if they want the alliance or not). We will speed up our preparations. Our candidates will win, stay with the party and serve the people," Mr Owaisi said. Earlier, Mr Owaisi said he reached out to the Opposition bloc before the 2020 polls for an alliance, but nothing came of it. The AIMIM can play a key role in the Bihar polls. Mr Owaisi's support base in the minority community can potentially upset the Muslim-Yadav combination RJD relies on. Also, he has gained popularity over his public remarks in the wake of the Pahalgam terror attack and Operation Sindoor and this can potentially benefit the AIMIM in this election. In the 2020 polls, AIMIM surprised by winning five of the 20 seats it contested. Four of its MLAs later joined RJD, but the poll performance still showed the party had gained political heft in Bihar. The AIMIM contesting separately has the potential to harm the Opposition alliance by splitting the minority vote, a key factor in the election. The BJP-JDU is looking to retain power in the upcoming polls, as smaller allies such as Chiraj Paswan's LJP (Ram Vilas) are posturing for a good seat-sharing deal. The RJD and the Congress, on the other hand, will be looking to return to power. Jan Suraaj, a political front led by former poll strategist Prashant Kishor, is also in the fight.
The Hindu
01-07-2025
- Politics
- The Hindu
Akhilesh Yadav, the Ambedkarite
During the 2022 Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh, the Dalit bangle makers in Firozabad, a traditional bastion of the Samajwadi Party (SP), said that they trusted the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) more because they had suffered at the hands of the Yadavs. 'During SP rule, our women were forcibly denied ration shop queues. It was much like how our leader (Bahujan Samaj Party chief Mayawati) was assaulted by SP goons in the State guest house (in 1995),' said an artisan. The distrust was deep despite the SP and the BSP having come together for the 2019 general elections. Cut to November 2024. Ahead of the bypolls, SP chief Akhilesh Yadav addressed rallies in western U.P. In each rally, he would underline his Other Backward Classes (OBC) identity. He would mention how after he lost power in 2017 and vacated the official residence of the Chief Minister in Lucknow, the BJP cleansed the premises with Gangajal as an act of purification. He would then speak about the Kannauj incident in 2024 where BJP workers washed the precincts of a temple after he visited it to offer prayers during his Lok Sabha election campaign. By narrating these incidents, Mr. Yadav would align his identity with the Dalits, who have historically been treated as 'impure' by the so-called upper castes. Recently, Mr. Yadav raised his voice against the assault of two Yadav priests in Etawah, another SP stronghold. The BJP accused him of giving the incident a casteist spin. However, it was this tweak in his politics that won him 43 seats alongside the Congress in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. Political analysts say that the change in Mr. Yadav's world view was evident from 2018 when B.R. Ambedkar prominently appeared in the party's poll literature. Soon after, a bust of Ambedkar appeared at the party office in Lucknow, and Babasahib Vahini, a party-affiliated outfit, was formed to reach out to Dalits. This crystallised into the PDA (a Hindi acronym for backwards, Dalits, and minorities) formula that has been paying electoral dividends. The order of groups may be different, but this is not significantly different from Kanshi Ram's Bahujan (majority people) politics and differs from Ms. Mayawati's focus on Sarvajan (all people) politics. This strategy reflected in ticket distribution in 2024. The party shed its Muslim-Yadav tag while selecting candidates and successfully played the Dalit and OBC card. By focusing on Kurmi, Shakya, Maurya, and Nishad candidates and fielding two Dalits from general seats, Mr. Yadav disturbed the caste calculus of the BJP. That the desertion of established caste leaders such as Swami Prasad Maurya did not impact the party's performance indicates that the most backward communities believed in Mr. Yadav. Political observers say that with the BSP losing direction, Mr. Yadav is aiming to replace Ms. Mayawati in the Dalit mind. A party insider says that after the election results, when people saw that 'judenge toh jeetenge (united we win)' was possible, they wouldn't buy the slogan of the BJP, 'batoge toh katoge (divided you will fall)'. Instead of hitting the streets, Mr. Yadav has motivated the cadre to hold PDA panchayats in villages across the State to highlight the strength of unity and the failure of the 'double engine' BJP government. 'We are trying to drill the idea that the ideologies of Ram Manohar Lohia and Ambedkar can fulfil the dreams of the country and of our ancestors,' said a senior party member. Mr. Yadav is often poetic in Parliament when he criticises the government about the Waqf Act or the deaths at the Kumbh Mela. However, he lets his displeasure be known when journalists try to corner him as a dynast or a privileged politician and accuses them of being soft on the government. With the family feud settled in his favour, one of the most significant changes in Mr. Yadav's public behaviour is that he no longer gives the impression of being an insecure politician. Despite unsavoury statements made by some Congress leaders from U.P., Mr. Yadav remains committed to the INDIA bloc. With Azam Khan out of the picture, the partnership with the Congress helps him outsource Muslim issues to the grand old party. A section of young leaders in the SP feels that with the polls only 18 months away, Mr. Yadav should launch a padayatra like Rahul Gandhi did. They fear that without the active participation of grassroots leaders, PDA meetings could just become photo ops.
