As Trump and Netanyahu eye normalisation deals, Iran looms large

Middle East Eye

a day ago

The billboards went up in Tel Aviv barely before the smoke cleared from Israel's conflict with Iran, promising a slew of new diplomatic deals to a "victorious Israel".
In the images, US President Donald Trump is flanked by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and a bevvy of Arab leaders. The standouts are Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa.
Netanyahu's top priority when he arrives at the White House on Monday will be to push for diplomatic deals for Israel to normalise ties with Syria or Saudi Arabia in order to cap what he has portrayed as a major Israeli victory over Iran after 12 days of conflict.
Trump has made no secret of the fact that he wants Damascus and Riyadh to normalise ties with Israel too - solidifying his deal-maker credentials - but he will likely have to bundle progress towards those agreements with resolving Israel's war on Gaza and the occupation of Syrian territory.
Looming over Netanyahu's three-day visit is Iran. During the Israel-Iran conflict, Israel destroyed the Islamic Republic's air defences and ballistic missile launchpads. Israeli strikes killed Iranian generals and scientists. It culminated in the US bombing Iran's Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan nuclear sites.
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Israel, Iran, and the US have all claimed victory in the conflict, but the end result is far from conclusive.
Middle East Eye reported that the US's powerful Gulf allies felt "vindicated' that they had restored ties with Iran and distanced themselves from Israel's attack. While Arab officials watched Israeli jets dominate Iran's skies, they also saw Iranian missiles slam into Tel Aviv.
One Arab official told MEE that there was an inkling in some Arab capitals that Netanyahu would seek Trump's backing for a new offensive on Iran. 'The Islamic Republic emerged too powerful from the last round. Israel learned it needs the US involved directly,' the official said.
In an interview aired by conservative podcaster Tucker Carlson on Monday, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said he had "no problem" resuming nuclear talks with the US.
Netanyahu and Trump are eschewing the White House Oval Office meeting. Instead, they will dine privately with their wives. Before the dinner, Netanyahu is expected to meet with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and US special envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff.
He will also meet Vice President JD Vance and Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth in the following days.
Trump has tried to leverage a ceasefire between Israel and Iran for momentum towards a truce in the Gaza Strip.
'I think there's a good chance we have a deal with Hamas… during the coming week,' Trump told reporters on Sunday.
Gaza ceasefire talks stalled
The current proposal is for a two-month ceasefire, with guarantees from the US, Qatar, and Egypt, to extend the truce while talks on a permanent end to the conflict continue. The proposal mirrors that which Israel and Hamas struck in January. Israel unilaterally withdrew from that short-lived agreement in March and resumed attacking Gaza.
'MBS will insist on something serious. Not the sneaky stuff the Israelis want to offer'
- Arab official
Having been burned once, the main obstacle is Hamas's insistence that Israel commit to a full ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, after the group releases the fewer than two dozen captives believed to be alive and not resume its attacks. Indirect talks between Hamas and Israel in Doha, Qatar, ended with no breakthrough, the AFP reported on Monday.
The situation in Gaza is deteriorating with constant Israeli strikes. A lack of fuel, medicine and food has caused basic services to collapse. The trickle of aid that Israel has allowed into the enclave is being distributed by the controversial Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, whose security is provided by American mercenaries.
Despite the new Israeli billboard, Saudi Arabia insists that it won't normalise ties with Israel unless concrete steps are taken towards a Palestinian state. As a basic starting point, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman would need to see a permanent end to Israel's war on Gaza, which he has described as a 'genocide'.
'The main point remains: what is Israel ready to offer to the Palestinians, and will that be satisfactory enough for MBS,' one Arab official told MEE. 'MBS will insist on something serious. Not the sneaky, half-pregnant stuff the Israelis want to offer.'
Some analysts say that Israel's attack on Iran may give Netanyahu the space he needs to commit to a full-ceasefire in the Gaza Strip - which members of his government have long rejected. But Netanyahu's stated war plans have not changed.
In May, he said that includes the total eradication of Hamas and enacting a plan Trump introduced earlier this year for a forced displacement of Palestinians from Gaza.
Syria deal around the corner?
In Syria, Netanyahu faces a ruler who is on shakier ground than Saudi Arabia's crown prince and is more indebted to Trump. The US announced on Monday that it had revoked the terrorist designation on the Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group. The move is part of Trump's sweeping pledge to lift all sanctions on Syria.
The White House already permitted the relaxation of export controls on certain goods to Syria and waived restrictions on certain foreign assistance, but lifting sanctions on Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa's former Islamist group so quickly sparked speculation among some analysts that diplomacy between Israel and Syria was picking up.
'Vindicated': Unscathed by war, Gulf states look to capitalise on Israel and Iran's losses Read More »
'We all knew that Assad-related sanctions are on their way to being lifted, but never did I think that terrorism related sanctions would be revoked just as easily,' Syrian political economy specialist Karam Shaar wrote on X.
'A deal with Israel must be around the corner,' he added.
It's unclear if Sharaa will be able to sell a diplomatic deal with Israel to his base, let alone all of Syria. HTS was born out of al-Qaeda's Syria branch, al-Nusra Front, although HTS has since rejected transnational fighting, and Sharaa has said he aims to rule for all Syrians. Two regional officials told MEE that Sharaa is personally afraid for his safety.
Israel has land to trade with Syria. After Bashar al-Assad's government was toppled in December 2024, Israel sent troops into the country and occupied a swath of southwest Syria, pushing beyond a United Nations buffer zone that was created in 1974 after the two countries fought a war.
US special envoy to Syria and Lebanon, Tom Barrack, confirmed on Monday that Syria and Israel were engaged in talks over the border. 'Everyone is rushing to reach an agreement,' he said.
It is unclear whether the talks are over Israel's occupation of the UN buffer zone or the entirety of the Golan Heights. Israel gained control of most of the territory after the 1967 war and annexed it in 1981. Sharaa, who previously went by nom de guerre Abu Mohammed al-Golani, has family roots in the illegally occupied Golan Heights.